039
FXUS62 KILM 031106
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
606 AM EST MON NOV 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY
FROM THE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TUESDAY AND OFFSHORE
WEDNESDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
EARLY THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONT COULD ARRIVE NEXT WEEKEND BUT RAIN
CHANCES DO NOT APPEAR SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
A RATHER IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING, THEN OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
TEMPERATURES (-18C AT 500 MB, AND -6C AT 700 MB, AND +6C AT 850 MB)
ARE PROBABLY THE COLDEST WE'VE SEEN SO FAR THIS SEASON. LAPSE RATES
MAY BECOME STEEP ENOUGH TO DEVELOP SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR AREA, AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES OVERHEAD LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH NOON. CLEARING IS THEN
EXPECTED AS MID LEVEL TEMPS RISE ABRUPTLY AND THE AIRMASS DRIES OUT
FROM THE TOP DOWN THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL HANG ON LONGEST IN
PENDER COUNTY AND IT'S POSSIBLE SURF CITY/TOPSAIL ISLAND WON'T SEE
MUCH BLUE SKY UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. FORECAST HIGHS RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS PENDER COUNTY TO 64-67 ELSEWHERE WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 MPH AT TIMES.
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH DIMINISHING WIND AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MIGRATING EASTWARD OVER THE CAROLINAS
ON TUES AND THEN OFFSHORE ON WED. THE LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE VARIABLE AND THEN WILL INCREASE THROUGH LATE WED IN
A GUSTY SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. SUNSHINE WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH A VERY DRY DAY ON TUES WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING
DOWN NEAR 40 OR BELOW. ALTHOUGH WED WILL BE DRY AND SUNNY, AS
WELL, THE WARMER AND MOISTER RETURN FLOW WILL HELP BRING TEMPS
UP SEVERAL DEGREES FROM THE 60S IN MOST PLACES ON TUES, TO THE
LOWER 70S ON WED. OVERALL, A DRY PERIOD WITH GUSTY WINDS WED.
BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TUES NIGHT WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO DROP BELOW 40 IN TRADITIONALLY COOLER SPOTS UP TO THE
LOW TO MID 40S ALONG THE COAST. WED NIGHT LOWS WILL BE CLOSER TO
10 DEGREES WARMER AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE
AREA NEAR DAYBREAK THURS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
WINDS SPIN AROUND TO THE NORTH ON THURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A DRY COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH
THE AREA EARLY THURS. MAY SEE A FEW CLOUDS THURS MORNING, BUT
OVERALL, JUST SHIFTING WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE SKIRTS BY TO THE
NORTH THURS INTO FRI. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST ON FRI,
THE AIR MASS WILL CHANGE WITH SOME CLOUDS MIXING WITH THE SUN
AND GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SHWRS WITH A RETURN IN DEWPOINTS
TOPPING 60 IN SPOTS AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT. THIS MOISTER
ENVIRONMENT WILL LEAD TO WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS AND TEMPS INTO
THE MID 70S INTO THE WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE IN A
BROADER FLATTER FLOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE CAROLINAS
ON SAT AND SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS BUT LATEST SHWR
CHANCES LOOK FAIRLY SLIM. TEMPS SHOULD REACH INTO THE 70S EACH
AFTN WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR IFR LOW CEILINGS FOR THE COASTAL
AIRPORTS (KILM, KCRE, AND KMYR) WHERE CEILINGS MAY NOT RISE
ABOVE 1000 FEET UNTIL 15-17Z. INLAND THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE
FOR IFR LOW CEILINGS AT THE KFLO AIRPORT UNTIL 15-16Z BEFORE AN
IMPROVING TREND BEGINS. KLBT CEILINGS HAVE LARGELY REMAINED
VFR/MVFR OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS BUT EVEN THERE A LOW RISK
OF IFR CEILINGS EXISTS THROUGH 15Z.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LOW CLOUDS AND SPOTTY RAIN.
ONCE THIS FEATURE EXITS THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON, CLEARING
SHOULD PROCEED RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST. SKC AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BRIEF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN EARLY MORNING GROUND FOG
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE JUST EAST OF CAPE FEAR IS
CURRENTLY DEEPENING AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE
COAST. BEHIND THE LOW, NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGHOUT TODAY
AND TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS CURRENTLY 10-15 KNOTS COULD INCREASE TO
15-20 KNOTS FOR A PERIOD LATER TODAY BUT SHOULD DIMINISH AGAIN
THIS EVENING. A SECOND SURGE OF OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS WILL EXCEED 20 KNOTS AT TIMES TODAY AND
TONIGHT, BUT INDICATIONS ARE THERE SHOULD BE INSUFFICIENT
TIME/LOCATION OF 25 KNOT GUSTS TO NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
A 10-SECOND EASTERLY SWELL AND LOCAL WIND CHOP SHOULD COMBINE FOR
WAVE HEIGHTS OF 3-4 FEET INSIDE 20 MILES FROM SHORE.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MIGRATING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TUES INTO
WED WITH NORTHERLY FLOW BECOMING MORE VARIABLE INTO LATE TUES. A
SHIFT TO A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL COME WED AS THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH REACHING THE OFFSHORE WATERS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.
THIS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH LATE WED AS A
MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THIS FRONT SHOULD DROP
THROUGH THE WATERS EARLY THURS WITH A SHIFT TO THE W OVERNIGHT
WE AND THEN NORTHERLY ON THURS. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE HATTERAS COAST THURS NIGHT INTO FRI WITH
ONSHORE TO TO SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS MAINLY UP TO
20 KTS LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT. SEAS WILL BASICALLY BE IN THE 2
TO 4 FT RANGE THROUGH THE WEEK.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...TRA/RGZ
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