173
FXUS62 KILM 031745
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1245 PM EST MON NOV 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS AND A SLIGHT
WARMUP THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES BUT NO RAIN THURSDAY, AND A SECOND WARMUP WILL THEN
BEGIN. A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST
NORTHEAST ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND BUILD TO THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE LOWER 40S WITH TUESDAY'S HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 60S.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT, SHIFTING ITS CENTER OFF
THE COAST BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THIS SUPPORTS SOME OF THE COOLER
GUIDANCE VALUES, THOUGH THE OVERALL SPREAD ISN'T VERY LARGE.
WEDNESDAY'S LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR AN AFTERNOON THAT
WILL WARM TO SEASONABLE VALUES UNDER FULL SUNSHINE. A CONTINUATION
OF SOUTHERLY BREEZES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP LOWS NEAR 50 UNDER
CLEAR SKIES AND A BRIGHT FULL MOON.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT
AS THE PREFRONTAL MOISTURE INFLUX IS NEGLIGIBLE. THE POST-FRONTAL
HIGH TRANSLATES EAST PRETTY QUICKLY AND IT WILL BE OFFSHORE BY
FRIDAY. LOCALLY THIS MEANS RETURN FLOW AGAIN AND A CONTINUATION OF
SLIGHTLY WARM TEMPERATURES. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE UNABATED
THROUGH SUNDAY, BROUGHT TO AN END BY A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE IN THE
DAY OR SUN NIGHT. THE CAA FOLLOWING THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE AND A COOL, BREEZY MONDAY APPEARS LIKELY.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS MOVING EXITING TO THE EAST
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND ANY LINGERING CEILINGS WILL SOON BE A
THING OF THE PAST. VFR WILL THEN BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BRIEF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN EARLY MORNING GROUND FOG
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MARINE
NORTHWEST WINDS CURRENTLY IN A RANGE OF 15-20 KNOTS ON THE WAY
UP JUST A FEW MORE KNOTS TO 20-25 FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING.
BY TUESDAY THE FLOW WILL DIMINISH AND TURN MORE NORTHERLY WITH A
RANGE OF 15-20 KNOTS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET WITH
THE MOSTLY OFFSHORE FLOW.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
VERY LIGHT WINDS TO START THE PERIOD AS CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS OVERHEAD, MOVING OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY. THIS BOTH TURNS
WINDS TO SW AND ALSO ALLOWS FOR A FEW KNOTS OF SPEED INCREASE.
WIND WAVES WILL OBVIOUSLY BE QUITE MINIMAL BUT A SMALL SE SWELL
COMPONENT REMAINS FOR A DOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE 2-3 FT
RANGE. A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THURSDAY FOR A PERIOD OF
ONSHORE FLOW BUT THE HIGH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY MOVES OFFSHORE
QUICKLY FOR A RETURN OF SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BY FRIDAY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...ILM
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