765
FXUS62 KILM 040032
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
732 PM EST MON NOV 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS AND A SLIGHT
WARMUP THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES BUT NO RAIN THURSDAY, AND A SECOND WARMUP WILL THEN
BEGIN. A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY.
UPDATE
THOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS STILL HAVE A LIGHT BREEZE IN SOME
SPOTS, TEMPERATURES ARE DROPPING A BIT FASTER THAN INITIALLY
THOUGHT. DECREASED THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS TREND, WHERE NBM10 SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON
THIS AT THE MOMENT. EVEN SO, I'M WONDERING IF THIS ISN'T LOW
ENOUGH. MAY HAVE TO EVALUATE THIS AGAIN ONCE WE APPROACH 10 PM
EST.
ELSEWHERE, UPDATED 00Z TAF DISCUSSION FOUND BELOW.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST
NORTHEAST ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND BUILD TO THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE LOWER 40S WITH TUESDAY'S HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 60S.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT, SHIFTING ITS CENTER OFF
THE COAST BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THIS SUPPORTS SOME OF THE COOLER
GUIDANCE VALUES, THOUGH THE OVERALL SPREAD ISN'T VERY LARGE.
WEDNESDAY'S LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR AN AFTERNOON THAT
WILL WARM TO SEASONABLE VALUES UNDER FULL SUNSHINE. A CONTINUATION
OF SOUTHERLY BREEZES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP LOWS NEAR 50 UNDER
CLEAR SKIES AND A BRIGHT FULL MOON.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT
AS THE PREFRONTAL MOISTURE INFLUX IS NEGLIGIBLE. THE POST-FRONTAL
HIGH TRANSLATES EAST PRETTY QUICKLY AND IT WILL BE OFFSHORE BY
FRIDAY. LOCALLY THIS MEANS RETURN FLOW AGAIN AND A CONTINUATION OF
SLIGHTLY WARM TEMPERATURES. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE UNABATED
THROUGH SUNDAY, BROUGHT TO AN END BY A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE IN THE
DAY OR SUN NIGHT. THE CAA FOLLOWING THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE AND A COOL, BREEZY MONDAY APPEARS LIKELY.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
NOTHING BUT VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAY BRING SOME BRIEF LLWS AT KILM FROM ABOUT 06Z TO 09Z
TONIGHT (020/34040KT). ONLY OTHER THING OF NOTE IS A GRADUAL
WIND SHIFT THIS PERIOD, WITH LIGHT WNW WINDS THIS EVENING
VEERING TO THE NNW BEFORE SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING, AND THEN NNE
WINDS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS CALM TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BRIEF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN EARLY MORNING GROUND FOG
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MARINE
NORTHWEST WINDS CURRENTLY IN A RANGE OF 15-20 KNOTS ON THE WAY
UP JUST A FEW MORE KNOTS TO 20-25 FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING.
BY TUESDAY THE FLOW WILL DIMINISH AND TURN MORE NORTHERLY WITH A
RANGE OF 15-20 KNOTS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET WITH
THE MOSTLY OFFSHORE FLOW.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
VERY LIGHT WINDS TO START THE PERIOD AS CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS OVERHEAD, MOVING OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY. THIS BOTH TURNS
WINDS TO SW AND ALSO ALLOWS FOR A FEW KNOTS OF SPEED INCREASE.
WIND WAVES WILL OBVIOUSLY BE QUITE MINIMAL BUT A SMALL SE SWELL
COMPONENT REMAINS FOR A DOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE 2-3 FT
RANGE. A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THURSDAY FOR A PERIOD OF
ONSHORE FLOW BUT THE HIGH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY MOVES OFFSHORE
QUICKLY FOR A RETURN OF SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BY FRIDAY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...IGB
NEAR TERM...TRA/SHK
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...IGB
MARINE...ILM
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