786
FXUS62 KILM 041039
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
539 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS AND A SLIGHT
WARMUP THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES BUT NO RAIN THURSDAY, AND THEN A WARMUP FOR THE
WEEKEND. A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY BRINGING MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLY THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON
ACROSS SPOTS INLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
YESTERDAY'S UPPER TROUGH IS WELL OFFSHORE AND A BROAD, FLAT UPPER
RIDGE COVERS THE SOUTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE COUNTRY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD TODAY, REACHING THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT ALMOST 100 PERCENT SUNSHINE AND
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER 60S.
MONDAY EVENING'S 00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING AT GREENSBORO MEASURED 30
DEGREE F DEWPOINTS AT 2500 FEET AGL AND 25 DEGREE F DEWPOINTS AT
3000 FEET. WE'RE FORECASTING MIXING HEIGHTS TO REACH 3000-3500 FEET
THIS AFTERNOON MEANING WE'LL LIKELY DRAG DOWN A PORTION OF THAT DRY
AIR, DILUTING OUR BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. I'VE ADJUSTED FORECAST
DEWPOINTS A LITTLE BELOW NBM WITH A 50:50 BLEND WITH THE HREF.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY COULD FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT IN SPOTS, BUT
FORTUNATELY FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THERE WON'T BE ANY SIGNIFICANT
WIND.
CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT SHOULD YIELD IMPRESSIVE
RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND
40 INLAND WITH LOWER TO MID 40S LIMITED TO THE COAST. NORMALLY
COLDER LOCATIONS (POCOSINS AND PEAT SOILS MAINLY ACROSS SE NORTH
CAROLINA) COULD DIVE SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER WITH FROST POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE RIGHT ALONG THE COAST EARLY WED WILL
SHIFT FARTHER OFF THE COAST WED THROUGH WED NIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP AND AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT, SW WINDS SHOULD INCREASE
AND BECOME GUSTY. THIS WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT-LIVED AS WE REMAIN
IN A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW WITH FRONT DROPPING SOUTH BY THURS
MORNING AND A SHIFT TO NORTHERLY FLOW INTO THURS. THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH LACKING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE WITH SOUNDINGS
SHOWING ANY MOISTURE BELOW 5K FT AND THEREFORE DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH MORE THAN SOME CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT WITH THIS ONE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REACH DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE CENTER
MIGRATES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NC/VA LINE BY FRI MORNING.
TEMPS WED WILL BE ON THE WARMER SIDE WITH READINGS INTO THE MID
70S IN A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WHILE THURS WILL SEE A DROP IN
TEMPS BACK TOWARD NORMAL, AROUND 70 BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 NEAR THE
COAST, BUT THURS NIGHT MAY SEE SOME LOWER 40S INLAND.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST TO THE NORTH OF LOCAL AREA ON
FRI, IT WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE BACK INTO THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS
AS A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS ON FRI. COULD SEE POTENTIAL
FOR A SHOWER MOVING ON SHORE FRI AFTN AS AN ONSHORE TO SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS, BUT NOT MUCH ENERGY ALOFT AS FLOW REMAINS
RATHER FLAT. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BOUNCE TEMPS BACK INTO THE
MID 70S. THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SHOULD LAST A BIT LONGER
THIS TIME AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS. SLIGHTLY BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS SHOULD
PRODUCE A GREATER CHC OF SHWRS ON SAT, BUT LOOKS LIKE BEST
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL REMAIN NORTH AND WEST ON SAT. GFS KEEPS A
MORE UNSETTLED WEEKEND WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AND
POTENTIAL FOR SHWRS, ESPECIALLY HEADING INTO THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND INTO MON AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTH PUSHING A
STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS POTENTIAL
FOR TEMPS TO PUSH 80 INLAND OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A SHARP DROP
IN CAA FOR MON WHEREBY TEMPS MAY NOT REACH 60 AND COULD SEE
WIDESPREAD 30S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POSSIBLY
OUR FIRST FREEZE INLAND IN SPOTS.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE COMING 24
HOURS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY AFTER 12Z. A
WEAK SEABREEZE MAY DEVELOP AT THE KMYR AND KCRE AIRPORTS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON TURNING WIND DIRECTIONS ONSHORE. ALTHOUGH THE
HRRR AND AWCGFA MODELS BOTH DEVELOP AREAS OF FOG LATE TONIGHT,
THE ATMOSPHERE APPEARS IT WILL REMAIN TOO DRY TO SUPPORT FOG.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK....VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. BRIEF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN EARLY MORNING
GROUND FOG THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH LOW PRESSURE NOW WELL OUT TO SEA,
ATTENTION IS SHIFTING TO AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. BREEZY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS THIS MORNING
COULD GUST OVER 20 KNOTS BEFORE 11 AM, BUT SHOULD DIMINISH
SUBSTANTIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH REACHES THE COAST.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT SHOULD
TURN SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE.
SEAS SHOULD CONSIST OF 2-4 FT SHORT PERIOD WAVES THIS MORNING,
DIMINISHING TO 2-3 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND DOWN TO 1-2 FEET THIS
EVENING.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE RIGHT
ALONG THE COAST EARLY WED WILL SHIFT FARTHER OFF THE COAST WED
THROUGH WED NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO
DEVELOP AND AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH APPROACHING COLD
FRONT, SW WINDS SHOULD INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY. MAY SEE GUSTS
UP TO 25 KTS, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS AND SEAS WILL ONLY BUMP UP TO 3 TO 4 FT WED NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN THURS WITH A SHIFT TO NORTHERLY
WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS. A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH SHIFTING OFF THE NC/VA
COAST BY THURS NIGHT WITH AN ONSHORE RETURN FLOW OVER THE LOCAL
WATERS. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP EARLY FRI BEFORE
SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES OVER FRI AFTN INTO THE WEEKEND. SEAS WILL
BASICALLY RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 FT.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...TRA/RGZ
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page