942
FXUS62 KILM 051135
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
635 AM EST WED NOV 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS AND A SLIGHT
WARMUP THROUGH TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES BUT NO RAIN INTO EARLY THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
WARMUP FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SOME SHOWERS AROUND. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
POSSIBLY THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON ACROSS SPOTS INLAND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW FOR 12Z TAFS.VERY LIMITED AND
PATCHY LIGHT FOG IN AN OTHERWISE PERFECTLY SUNNY DAY WITH SOME
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON..
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD AND OUT TO SEA TODAY. A SWATH OF SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL GUST UP TO 25 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON VIA MOMENTUM TRANSFER FROM THE STRENGTHENING WINDS ALOFT.
FORECAST HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 70-75, COOLEST ON THE BEACHES.
GUSTS SHOULD ABATE THIS EVENING WITHIN THE STABILIZING NOCTURNAL
BOUNDARY LAYER, BUT STEADY 5-10 MPH WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
DRY COLD FRONT SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS QUICKLY AS
THEY DID LAST NIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT, THEN WILL TURN NORTHERLY BY DAYBREAK WITH LOWS REACHING THE
UPPER 40S INLAND AND LOWER 50S ON THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN BEHIND EXITING COLD
FRONT. THE NORTHERLY PUSH OF DRIER AIR THROUGH THURS WILL BE
FAIRLY SHORT-LIVED AS A COASTAL TROUGH AND ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOP
ON FRI. BY FRI AFTN, AS THE HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE AND A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST, THE COASTAL
TROUGH LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AND A DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS.
LATEST SOUNDINGS SHOW FAIRLY SATURATED LAYER UP TO 5K FT FRI
MORNING AND THEREFORE EXPECT SOME LOW CLOUDS AND MAY SEE SOME
SPOTTY PCP. BY MID TO LATE AFTN AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN
FORCE SHOULD SEE CLOUDS BREAK UP AND WAA SET IN.
OVERALL, THURS WILL BE A DRY AND SUNNY DAY WITH A NORTHERLY
FLOW AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS THAN PREVIOUS DAY, WITH HIGH TEMPS JUST
BELOW 70 MOST PLACES. THURS NIGHT WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE,
ESPECIALLY INLAND WITH TEMPS BELOW 50. AND FRI WILL WARM AND
MOISTEN AS THE DAY WEARS ON WITH A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING
UP FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE INTO THE LOW TO MID
70S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT EAST AND SHOULD SEE THE
TRAILING END OF A WEAKER FRONT OR TROUGH INTO THE CAROLINAS ON
SATURDAY. DEEPER LAYER MOISTER AND SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS INTO SAT MORNING, BUT THE LOWER
LEVELS BELOW 5K FT REMAIN QUITE DRY AND BEST DYNAMICS REMAIN
NORTH AND WEST. ONCE SHORTWAVE PASSES OFFSHORE BY SAT AFTN, AREA
WILL REMAIN IN DEEPER SW-W FLOW WITH DRYING THROUGH THE COLUMN
INTO SAT EVENING. SHOULD SEE MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS SAT AFTN IN
CONTINUED WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S AND
SOME PLACES INTO THE UPPER 70S. MAY SEE SOME SHWRS DEVELOP IN
SPOTS. PCP WATER LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PEAK AROUND 1.5 INCHES SAT
AFTN.
BY SUNDAY, A MORE DYNAMIC SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST, A DIGGING MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH THIS STRONG
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA, BUT LATEST MODELS SHOW LIMITED
MOISTURE AND FAIRLY DEEP WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ALREADY
THROUGH SUN MORNING. THE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW SUN AFTN WILL
HELP TO BRING TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S AND POSSIBLY REACHING 80
IN SPOTS.
A MAJOR CHANGE OF AIR MASS WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH SUN EVE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. VERY DRY AND COLD
CANADIAN AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE CAROLINAS WITH PCP WATER
VALUES DROPPING TO LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH AND SOME OF
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH INTO
THE 50S ON MON, A 30 DEGREE DROP FROM PREVIOUS DAY AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE DOWN NEAR FREEZING OR BELOW IN MANY SPOTS ACROSS
THE AREA. AFTER THIS COLD START AND WITH CONTINUED CAA. TEMPS
ON TUES MAY ONLY REACH NEAR 50. OVERALL, A HUGE CHANGE FROM THE
WEEKEND. SHOULD SEE OUR FIRST FREEZE OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ILM/FREEZE FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT
AVERAGE FIRST FALL FREEZES AND OTHER STATISTICS FOR NE SC AND SE
NC.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MOISTURE IS JUST DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PATCHY GROUND FOG AT SOME
LOCAL AIRPORTS THIS MORNING. THERE IS A MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR A
VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITY AT KCRE AND KFLO 12-13Z. SKIES
SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR OVER THE COMING 24 HOURS WITH AFTERNOON
WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KT. SURFACE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10
KT OR LESS TONIGHT, BUT INCREASING WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE COULD
LEAD TO LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AFTER 23Z, ESPECIALLY AT KLBT.
A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW-N WILL TAKE PLACE BEHIND A DRY COLD
FRONT BETWEEN 08-12Z.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK....VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN EARLY MORNING GROUND FOG
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED ALMOST DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD THIS MORNING AND SHOULD PUSH EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE
CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
GRADUALLY INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS BY THIS EVENING. GUSTS NORTH
OF CAPE FEAR COULD APPROACH 25 KNOTS BETWEEN 6 PM AND MIDNIGHT.
A DRY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OFFSHORE AROUND MIDNIGHT
VEERING WIND DIRECTIONS WESTERLY, THEN NORTHWESTERLY BY
DAYBREAK. A SMALL 8 SECOND EAST-SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL GET COVERED
UP BY INCREASING WIND CHOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
COMBINED SEAS OF 1-2 FEET THIS MORNING SHOULD BUILD TO 3-4 FEET
BY THIS EVENING.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN EARLY THURS WITH A SHIFT TO
NORTHERLY WINDS REMAINING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. A FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
SHIFTING OFF THE NC/VA COAST BY THURS NIGHT WITH AN ONSHORE
RETURN FLOW OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP EARLY FRI BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES OVER FRI AFTN INTO
THE WEEKEND. SEAS WILL BASICALLY RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 FT WITH A
PERSISTENT SW FLOW LATE FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUN WITH WINDS PICKING UP TO NEAR 15
KTS AN SEAS UP TO 3 TO 4 FT. BY LATE SUN, STRONGER WESTERLY
WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH INTO SUN
NIGHT, EXPECT STIFF COLD AND DRY NW WINDS TO RUSH OVER THE
WATERS WITH SEAS UP TO 3 TO 5 FT.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...RGZ
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...RGZ
MARINE...TRA/RGZ
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