289
FXUS62 KILM 060025
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
725 PM EST WED NOV 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS AND A SLIGHT
WARMUP THROUGH TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES BUT NO RAIN INTO EARLY THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
WARMUP FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SOME SHOWERS AROUND. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
POSSIBLY THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON ACROSS SPOTS INLAND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
NO MAJOR CHANGES COMING DOWN THE TRACK AT THE 7 PM EST FORECAST
UPDATE. NEW 00Z TAF DISCUSSION FOUND BELOW.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST, RUNNING ROUGHLY FROM OHIO TO
THE RED RIVER. IT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A
WINDSHIFT DUE TO ITS WEAK LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND NO SUPPORT FOR
LIFT ALOFT IN ZONAL FLOW. IT'S WEAK BAROCLINICITY WILL BE EVIDENT BY
TOMORROW'S HIGHS GENERALLY ONLY BEING ABOUT 2 DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY'S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR A RAPID PATTERN EVOLUTION DURING THIS
PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE EARLIER COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY SHIFTS OFFSHORE DURING THE NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS
WILL VEER FROM NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAY AS A
RESULT. IN ADDITION, A COASTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS AND PIVOTS SOUTH OF THE AREA. ABOVE THE
SURFACE, THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO SWITCH FROM
NORTHERLY DURING THE DAY TO SOUTHERLY AT NIGHT WITH ISENTROPIC
ASCENT DEVELOPING AS MOIST AIR RIDES UP THE 290-295K SURFACES OVER
TOP OF THE RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY NEAR-SURFACE AIR. THUS, EXPECT AT
LEAST SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ON FRIDAY MORNING WITH A CHANCE FOR
OVERCAST SKIES MAINLY IN THE COASTAL AREAS AS THIS MOISTURE PLUME
AND WEAK LIFT PASSES THROUGH. LIGHT RAIN MAY ALSO BE OBSERVED NEAR
THE COAST DURING THE MORNING, BUT THE DRY NEAR-SURFACE AIR SHOULD
EVAPORATE MOST OR ALL LIGHT PRECIP THAT MAY APPEAR ON RADAR ON
FRIDAY. THE COASTAL TROUGH SHOULD LIFT NORTHWARD DURING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, VEERING THE SURFACE WINDS TO SOUTHERLY AND ALLOWING FOR
WARM, MOIST AIR TO RETURN INLAND. OTHERWISE, INLAND AREAS HAVE A
LOWER CHANCE FOR OVERCAST SKIES AS RIDGING ALOFT BRINGS SUBSTANTIAL
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE INTO THE MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERE, KEEPING
SCATTERED THIN STRATOCUMULUS AS THE MAIN SKY COVER CONCERN.
WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES, THE QUICK-HITTING COLD AIR BEHIND
THURSDAY'S COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING SEVERAL
DEGREES LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT, WITH LOW-MID 40S INLAND AND
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST. ON FRIDAY, HIGH TEMPS NEAR
THE COAST WILL DEPEND ON THE EXTENT AND DURATION OF ANY LOW CLOUD
COVER, BUT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COASTAL TROUGH AND ARRIVAL OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW, SKIES SHOULD SCATTER OUT AND ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO
RISE INTO THE LOW-MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
VEERING TO SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT, FRIDAY
NIGHT'S LOWS WILL END UP CONSIDERABLY WARMER AS DEW POINTS RISE,
WITH MID-50S TO AROUND 60 EXPECTED, WARMEST ALONG THE COAST.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SIGNIFICANT PATTERN AMPLIFICATION WILL OCCUR DURING THIS PERIOD AS A
MID-UPPER TROUGH IN THE JETSTREAM DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN US,
REINFORCED BY MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES HELPING TO CARVE OUT THE BROADER
TROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SUBSTANTIAL COOLDOWN WITH ABNORMALLY
COLD TEMPERATURES FILTERING IN EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL BE A
HAZARD FOR PLANTS, EXPOSED WATER LINES, AND THOSE WITHOUT ACCESS TO
HEAT.
AS IS TYPICAL FOR THESE SITUATIONS, A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL APPROACH
AND CROSS THROUGH THE AREA IN RELATIVELY QUICK SUCCESSION, STEPPING
DOWN THE TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE CONTENT WITH EACH COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. STARTING ON SATURDAY, THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS
THROUGH BUT DAMPENS AS IT DOES SO, LEADING TO THE FIRST COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE AREA BUT STALLING AND WEAKENING AS ITS SUPPORT LIFTS
AWAY. AS A RESULT, ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MAY
MAKE INTO THE WESTERN ZONES DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY,
BUT THESE WILL BE DECAYING. SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP-LAYER FLOW AND
BUILDING RIDGING OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL HELP TO BOOST HIGH TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 70S, WITH SOME SPOTS POSSIBLY TOPPING OUT AROUND 80F
AMIDST MIXED CLOUDS AND SUN.
OVER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, REINFORCING SHORTWAVES
WILL BE DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING
TROUGH, HELPING TO PUSH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR WEST THROUGH AREA
DURING SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY A MUCH MORE POTENT COLD FRONT DURING
SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH PWATS AROUND 1" AND STRONG FORCING AHEAD OF THESE
SHORTWAVES, SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD UNTIL
THE STRONGER FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH STEADY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND DEW POINTS REMAINING ELEVATED FROM THE MOISTURE
RETURN AHEAD OF THE FIRST FRONT, EXPECT SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOW 60S FOLLOWED BY SUNDAY'S HIGHS REACHING WELL INTO THE 70S. ONCE
THE STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
PRECIPITOUSLY ON BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS, LIKELY MAKING IT INTO THE
40S BEFORE SUNRISE ON MONDAY.
THE COLDEST DAYS OF THE PERIOD SPAN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT,
WITH THE LAST COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. STRONG COLD ADVECTION ON CONTINUED BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL RESULT IN TEMPS SLOWLY CREEPING BACK INTO THE 50S ON MONDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY LOOK TO BE THE COLDEST
AS THE CORE OF COLD AIR PASSES OVERHEAD WHILE DEW POINTS HIT THEIR
LOWEST LEVELS (POTENTIALLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO 20S). A WIDESPREAD
FREEZE IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AS OFFSHORE FLOW KEEPS THE OCEAN
INFLUENCE LIMITED TO AREAS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST, BUT ELEVATED WINDS
WILL ALSO BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR IN ALLOWING TEMPS TO REACH THEIR
COLDEST POTENTIAL, SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS
TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE REVISED UPWARD OR WINDS REVISED DOWNWARD IN
FUTURE UPDATES. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
SHIFTING EASTWARD, HIGHS ON VETERAN'S DAY LOOK TO BE THE COLDEST AS
COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES FOR ONE MORE DAY, WHICH MAY LIMIT HIGHS TO
AROUND 50F.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY FM
GROUPS WILL BE TO ADDRESS VEERING WIND DIRECTIONS AS A DRY COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME NORTHEASTERLY BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK....VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. BRIEF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY,
SATURDAY, AND SUNDAY. LOW CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR
CIGS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AT COASTAL TERMINALS.
MARINE
THROUGH THURSDAY... PREFRONTAL SWRLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. TONIGHT AS THE
BOUNDARY DRAWS CLOSER THE WIND WILL VEER TO THE W WHILE INCREASING
IN SPEED AS ITS APPROACH TIGHTENS THE GRADIENT. A FEW GUSTS TO 25KT
APPEAR POSSIBLE BUT HOLDING OFF ON ADVISORY WHILE THE VEERING GETS
MORE AGGRESSIVE, EVENTUALLY WINDING UP NE BY THURSDAY. THE WIND
WAVES SHOULD STEEPEN WITH THE 180 DEGREE SHIFT AND A SMALL SE SWELL
WILL CONTINUE.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFFSHORE
OF THE NC COAST WILL RESULT IN ENE TO E WINDS AROUND 10-15 KTS FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE A COASTAL TROUGH SHIFTS
ONSHORE, VEERING THE FLOW TO SOUTHERLY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS. WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST,
BUT STALLING WELL WEST OF THE WATERS, EXPECT SOUTH WINDS TO VEER TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AND HOLD THROUGH SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH A TIGHTENING
GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KTS ON SUNDAY.
SEAS GENERALLY IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE DRIVEN
BY WIND WAVES WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN WAVE HEIGHTS LATE ON
SUNDAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...ABW
LONG TERM...ABW
AVIATION...IGB
MARINE...MBB/ABW
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