905
FXUS62 KILM 060731
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
231 AM EST THU NOV 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TODAY, FOLLOWED
BY A WARMUP FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SOME SHOWERS AROUND AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ON SUNDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
POSSIBLY THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON ACROSS SPOTS INLAND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES/HIGHLIGHTS:
*HAZARDS: NONE
*RAIN CHANCES: NONE
*TEMPS: NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
*CONFIDENCE: HIGH
DETAILS: A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY THIS AM WILL BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER AIR TO SE NC AND NE SC. COULD SEE A FEW HIGHER
CLOUDS BUT MOISTURE WILL BE HARD TO COME BY SO CERTAINLY NO RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED. BY LATE TONIGHT HOWEVER, A BIT MORE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BRING SOME LOWER CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY
IN SC.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
A COASTAL TROUGH JUST OFF THE SC COAST EARLY FRI MORNING WITH
WEAK LOW EVIDENT AT H85, WILL PUSH INLAND AND LIFT NORTHWARD AS
WARM FRONT THROUGH FRI. THE WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RIDE
OVER THE COOLER AND RELATIVELY DRIER AIR NEAR THE SFC AND SHOULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PCP DEVELOPING
FRI MORNING. SOME OF THE MODELS SHOW BEST CHC OF PCP REMAINING
OFFSHORE WHILE OTHERS ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE BRINGING DEEPER LAYER
MOISTURE UP THROUGH 700 MB AND GREATER CHC OF PCP ONSHORE AN AND
INLAND AS IT LIFTS NORTH, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SC COAST FRI.
FOR NOW, WE WILL KEEP MAINLY CLOUDS AND LIMITED MENTION OF PCP,
BUT MAY NEED TO ADJUST.
BY LATER FRI, THE TROUGH/WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH LEAVING A
DEEPER WARMER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. TEMPS SHOULD REACH INTO THE
LOW TO MID 70S, BUT MAY DEPEND ON MUCH CLOUD COVER THERE ENDS UP
BEING. SHOULD SEE SOME STRATOCU HOLDING ON ACROSS THE AREA INTO
FRI NIGHT AND MAY SEE SOME FOG INTO SAT MORNING. LOWS SAT
MORNING WILL REMAIN MILD WITH READINGS BETWEEN 55 TO 60 MOST
PLACES.
AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IN BROADER MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH
A COLD FRONT EAST AND SHOULD SEE THE TRAILING END OF A WEAKER
FRONT OR TROUGH STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. DEEPER
LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD PRODUCE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS ON SAT,
BUT CHC OF PCP WILL EXIST EVEN AS BEST SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 70S WITH
DEWPOINTS TOPPING 60 AND SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. THEREFORE, MAY SEE SOME SHWRS DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY
INLAND AND WEST OF LOCAL AREA AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE BROADER MID TO UPPER TROUGH LATER IN THE DAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
DIGGING MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY. DEEP WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH
SUN. EXPECT TEMPS TO REACH WELL INT THE 70S ONCE AGAIN AND MAY
EVEN SEE A FEW SPOTS TOP 80. INCREASING INSTABILITY INTO SUN
AFTN WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 60S AND DEEP TROUGH SHIFTING
EAST WITH ENHANCED LIFT LEADING TO BETTER CHC OF SHWRS AND ISO
THUNDERSTORMS.
ONCE THIS FRONT CROSSES THE AREA INTO SUN EVENING, A COMPLETE
CHANGE OF AIR MASS WILL OCCUR WITH DEEP NW FLOW TAPPING INTO
MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIR. THE 850 TEMPS WILL TAKE A NOSE DIVE
FROM NEAR 13 C SUN EVE DOWN TO -7 C BY TUES MORNING. H5 HEIGHTS
DROP FROM NEAR 575 DAM DOWN TO 550 BY EARLY TUES. OVERALL, MUCH
COLDER WEATHER ARRIVING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH INTO THE 50S ON MON, A 30 DEGREE
DROP FROM PREVIOUS DAY AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE DOWN NEAR
FREEZING OR BELOW IN MANY SPOTS ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER THIS COLD
START AND WITH CONTINUED CAA. TEMPS ON TUES WILL MAKE A RUN FOR
50 AGAIN. ALTHOUGH AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY TUES NIGHT INTO
WED, BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TUES NIGHT SHOULD
CAUSE ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT WITH TEMPS IN THE 30S. SHOULD SEE
OUR FIRST FREEZE OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA MON NIGHT/EARLY TUES
MORNING. VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ILM/FREEZE FOR MORE INFORMATION
ABOUT AVERAGE FIRST FALL FREEZES AND OTHER STATISTICS FOR NE SC
AND SE NC.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z/07. A DRY COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE OCCURS EARLY THIS AM WITH SHIFTING/INCREASING WINDS LATER
THIS AM. ALSO EXPECTING LLWS PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TO START
THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD,
ALTHOUGH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY EACH
NIGHT/MORNING. GUSTY WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING BRINGING AN UPTICK IN WINDS/SEAS WITH
OFFSHORE WINDS SHIFTING TO NE/E TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH MIGRATES OFFSHORE. WINDS SHOULD MOSTLY STAY 20 KT OR LESS WITH
SEAS 4 FT OR LESS.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WINDS WILL VEER AROUND FRIDAY AS A WEAK
COASTAL TROUGH/WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. E-NE FLOW EARLY WILL
COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHERLY THROUGH FRI. SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND STALLS TO THE
WEST BEFORE DEEP TROUGH PUSHES ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH
LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. SURGE OF COLD AIR OVER THE WARMER
WATERS WILL PRODUCE POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, BUT AT THIS POINT, LOOKS LIKE IT MAY REMAIN JUST BELOW
THRESHOLDS. SEAS WILL BASICALLY REMAIN 2 TO 4 FT, BUT STRONGER
OFFSHORE NW FLOW POSSIBLY UP TO 25 KTS OR SO MON INTO MON NIGHT
COULD PUSH SEAS UP TO 3 TO 5 FT, MAINLY IN THE OUTER WATERS.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...RJB/RGZ
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