218
FXUS62 KILM 070659
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
159 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH TODAY BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SOME SHOWERS AROUND AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ON SUNDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES
LATE SUNDAY BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND THE FIRST
FREEZE OF THE SEASON MONDAY NIGHT FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES/HIGHLIGHTS:
*HAZARDS: MINOR TIDAL FLOODING DURING THIS MORNING'S HIGH TIDE,
MAINLY ALONG THE NE SC COAST
*RAIN CHANCES: VERY LOW, MAINLY NEAR THE COAST TODAY AND INLAND
TONIGHT
*TEMPS: ABOVE NORMAL
*CONFIDENCE: HIGH
DETAILS: HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE WILL ALLOW A COASTAL TROUGH
TO SHIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT TODAY, POSSIBLY
CAUSING A FEW SHOWERS BUT NOT A LOT OF RAIN IS EXPECTED. PROBABLY
THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE NEAR THE NC COAST. HIGHS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR MOST. UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS FAR INLAND AREAS, GENERALLY NEAR/WEST OF
I-95. A LITTLE FOG IS POSSIBLE DUE TO HIGHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BUT
LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE ELEVATED ENOUGH TO PREVENT
ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER FOR
THE WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AND
SHOULD SEE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PCP, BUT
SOUNDINGS SHOW A DECENT DRY LAYER BELOW 5K FT AND TRAILING END
OF FRONT WILL GET HUNG UP NORTH AND WEST OF LOCAL FORECAST AREA.
ONCE SHORTWAVE PASSES OFFSHORE, AREA WILL REMAIN IN FAIRLY
ZONAL FLOW WITH DRYING THROUGH THE MID LEVELS AND THEREFORE
EXPECT SUNSHINE TO MIX WITH SOME CLOUDS SAT. TEMPS WILL RISE
WELL INTO THE 70S AND WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE SAT NIGHT
WITH LOWS CLOSE TO 60. SHOWER CHANCES ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS MID TO UPPER
TROUGH DIGS DOWN AND PUSHES A STRONG COLD FRONT EAST. CONTINUED
WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH TEMPS PUSHING 80 ON SUN
AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S IN A MORE DYNAMIC ATMOSPHERE. SHOULD
SEE BEST CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG COLD FRONT
PASSAGE INTO EARLY SUN EVENING.
ONCE THIS STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH, WINDS WILL VEER
AROUND TO THE NW WITH THE START OF PLENTY OF CAA INTO THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS. TEMPS WILL PLUMMET SUN NIGHT LEAVING LOW 40S
INLAND AND CLOSER TO 50 AT THE COAST BY DAYBREAK.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH MON IN DEEP COLD AND DRY
ADVECTION. GUSTY NW WINDS AND CAA WILL MAKE IT FEEL MORE LIKE A
WINTER DAY WITH TEMPS FIGHTING TO REBOUND FROM MORNING LOWS.
SHOULD SEE TEMPS REACH INTO THE MID 50S MOST PLACES. DEEP TROUGH
WILL PASS THROUGH MON NIGHT WITH CONTINUED STRONG CAA IN STIFF
NW TO N WINDS. THE 850 TEMPS WILL DROP AT LEAST 15 DEGREES
OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS
MOST AREAS INLAND OF THE COAST FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS JUST BEFORE
DAYBREAK. VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ILM/FREEZE FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT
AVERAGE FIRST FALL FREEZES AND OTHER STATISTICS FOR NE SC AND SE
NC.
VERY DRY AIR WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS
DROPPING TO NEAR 20 OR BELOW THROUGH EARLY TUES AND TEMPS ONLY
RECOVERING TO NEAR 50. THE CENTER OF HIGH WILL MOVE NEARLY
OVERHEAD TUES NIGHT, ALTHOUGH AIR MASS MAY BEGIN TO MODIFY THEN,
BUT EXPECT BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ALLOWING FOR
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR LOWS.
AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM INTO MIDWEEK WITH TEMPS RETURNING
TOWARD NORMAL BY THURS.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF THE
06Z/07 TAF PERIOD. ONLY A VERY LOW RISK FOR MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS
FROM LOW CLOUDS AND/OR SHOWERS AS A WARM FRONT SHIFTS NORTH THROUGH
THE AREA TODAY AND A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT, BUT NOT NEARLY ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE, WITH A LOW CHANCE OF FOG SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS.
GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. VFR RETURNS MONDAY WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS CONTINUING.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING LATE
TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
EAST WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHERLY TODAY AND THEN EVEN A BIT MORE
WESTERLY LATE TONIGHT, MOSTLY STAYING ABOUT 15 KT OR LESS.
SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 3-4 FT OR LESS, MOSTLY CHOPPY W/ A BIT OF
SE SWELL MIXED IN.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WAA WILL KEEP WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, GENERALLY AROUND 10-15 KTS BEFORE
INCREASING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. SEAS 2-3 FT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY,
WITH MIX OF SW WIND WAVE AND SE SWELL, INCREASING TO 3-5 FT BY
LATE SUNDAY DUE TO BUILDING WIND WAVE. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND COULD SEE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT. GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS
DEVELOP BY MONDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY,
POTENTIALLY REACHING SCA CRITERIA DUE TO STRONG CAA BEHIND THE
FRONT. SEAS SHOULD REACH 3-5 FT MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE
IMPROVING ON TUESDAY AS GUSTY NW WINDS DIMINISH FROM 20 TO 25
KTS DOWN TO 10 TO 15 KTS BY TUES EVE.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
SCZ054-056.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...RJB/RGZ
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