734
FXUS62 KILM 080004
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
704 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
BEHIND TODAY'S WARM FRONT SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BUILDING IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT SUNDAY, WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES BRING THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON MONDAY
NIGHT FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD MODERATE THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
UPDATE
ONLY BASIC CHANGE WAS TO ADD PATCHY FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
FA, ESPECIALLY THE LOCALES THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL TODAY. TH E
THREAT WILL BE LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
BEFORE SW WINDS PICK UP IN THE LOWER LEVELS, IE. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. THIS COMBINED WITH AN ALTOCU OR OPAQUE CIRRUS CLOUD DECK
OVERNIGHT SHOULD NEGATE THE FOG POTENTIAL. HOURLY TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS TWEAKED FROM INITIALLY WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
TRENDS THAN MASSAGED THEM INTO THE OVERNIGHT FCST.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
CLEAR SKIES ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND A MORNING WARM
FRONT. MID LEVEL WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL US THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL IMPACT OUR AREA TONIGHT. THE
TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND PUSH A
DEGRADING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THE LIFTING SHORTWAVE AND
DRY AIR ALOFT WILL FORCE THE FEW SHOWERS THAT EXIST OVER THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
SATURDAY.
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL MAINTAIN AROUND 10-15 KNOTS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THIS SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD
MOSTLY DETER FOG ACROSS THE REGION, BUT SHOWERS EARLIER IN THE DAY
IN THE CAPE FEAR REGION CREATED A LOCALIZED INCREASE IN BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE. THESE LOCATIONS ARE MORE LIKELY TO SEE SOME SHALLOW
FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. POCKETS OF LIGHTER WINDS COULD ALLOW FOR
SOME MORE LOCALLY CONSISTENT FOG, PRIMARILY AROUND DRAINAGE AREAS
AND WETLANDS.
EARLY CLOUD COVER ON SATURDAY MORNING WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. WARMER TEMPERATURES IN
SW FLOW WILL SEE HIGHS SOAR INTO THE UPPER 70S WITH SOME AREAS NEAR
80. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND MOISTURE ALOFT IS POOR, BUT SOME AIR
MASS SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP REGARDLESS. THIS IS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR
INLAND WHERE THE EARLIER EMERGENCE OF SUNSHINE PRODUCES BETTER
SURFACE HEATING. BETTER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE EXISTS NEAR THE
COAST AND A MIX OF SURFACE LIFT COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF SHOWER HERE AS
WELL.
ACROSS THE AREA, THE NBM MAINTAINED AROUND A 10% CHANCE OF RAIN FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HREF ENSEMBLES TEND TO AGREE DUE TO POOR
MOISTURE ADVECTION, ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE AN ARGUMENT FOR HIGHER
POPS INLAND WHERE SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS FLOURISHED IN
SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS. ANY LIFT ALOFT WOULD NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER
21Z AND WOULD SUPPORT SHOWERS FARTHER NORTH INTO NC. THE CHANCE FOR
A THUNDERSTORM IS LOW WITH RELATIVELY WEAK LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE LFC
AND A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR UPDRAFT ENTRAINMENT.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAJOR TROUGH AXIS AND
STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES INCREASING INLAND LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT LOOKS TO BE LIGHT WITH BETTER CHANCES SUNDAY. THERE IS A
MARGINAL RISK (1 OF 5) OF SEVERE WEATHER AS WE HEAT UP TO NEAR 80
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THE ISSUE WILL BE COVERAGE AS
STORMS FIGHT DRY AIR ALOFT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT, PUSHING OFFSHORE BY MONDAY MORNING. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
~10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY, BUT OVERNIGHT WINDS AND CLOUDS
SHOULD MODERATE TEMPERATURES A BIT. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK,
WE WILL GO FROM HIGHS NEAR 80 SUNDAY TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
50S MONDAY, WITH CLEARING SKIES AND NW WINDS ~15 MPH GUSTING 20-25
MPH BEHIND THE FRONT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
WE START OUT IN A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT,
WITH THE QUESTION OF OUR FIRST FREEZE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AS LOWS COULD DIP BELOW FREEZING AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR BUT NW TO W WINDS WILL BE PRESENT OVERNIGHT
TO WHERE MAJOR RADIATIONAL COOLING MIGHT BE OFF THE TABLE, BUT
IF WINDS RELAX SOME WE COULD END UP COOLER AND MUCH COLDER IN
OUR TRADITIONALLY COLDER SPOTS. LOWS WILL WARM JUST ABOVE
FREEZING AS THE AIR MASS MODERATES SOME INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR WEDNESDAY LEADING TO ANOTHER WARMUP
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. FOR NOW THIS SECOND FRONTAL
PASSAGE LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY DUE TO THE DRY AIR ALREADY IN PLACE,
AND TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT DON'T LOOK TO BE AS COLD AS
THE FIRST FRONTAL PASSAGE.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MAINLY A VFR FORECAST EXCEPT PLACED MVFR FOG ACROSS THE ILM AND
CRE TERMINALS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. AS SW WINDS IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER INCREASE AND PERIODIC ALTOCU AND CIRRUS DECKS
ADVECT OVERHEAD DURING THE PREDAWN HRS, THIS SHOULD NEGATE THE
FOG POTENTIAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PRE-DAWN PERIOD THRU
SUNRISE. OTHERWISE, WEAK SFC FRONT APPROACHING FROM UPSTREAM SAT
WILL STALL E-W, NORTH OF SOUTHEAST NC AND NORTHEAST SC SAT AFTN.
MAY OBSERVE CU FIELD UNDER A THIN CIRRUS DECK DURING SAT,
HOWEVER THE BEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS SAT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
REMAIN WEST THRU NORTH OF THE FORECAST REGION. FOR WINDS,
LOOKING AT WINDS BECOMING WSW-SW AT 3-6 KT DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD AND CONTINUING THRU THE DAY SAT. COULD EVEN OBSERVE A
WEAK SEA BREEZE AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS WITH WINDS BACKING TO
THE S-SSW AROUND 8 KT SAT AFTN/EARLY EVENING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK... OUTSIDE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG ON SUNDAY
MORNING, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
GUSTY SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. VFR RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE REIGNS.
MARINE
THROUGH SATURDAY... WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER FROM SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OFFSHORE. WINDS REMAIN
AROUND 10-15 KNOTS IN A RELATIVELY WEAK GRADIENT FOLLOWING A WARM
FRONT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
BRINGING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS. LIGHTER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ON SATURDAY. WARM TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
COAST WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SEA BREEZE WITH
ENHANCED WINDS AND LOCALIZED GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE LATE SATURDAY AS THE GRADIENT
COMPRESSES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... DETERIORATING MARINE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER
FRONT. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM ~10 KTS TO ~20 KTS INTO
SUNDAY BEFORE TURNING OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT. SLIGHT IMPROVEMENTS FOR TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEFORE IT MOVES OFFSHORE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SW
WINDS BUILDING IN AGAIN ~20 KTS. WAVEHEIGHTS WILL REACH 4-5 FT
MONDAY AND THEN 4-6 FT WEDNESDAY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...DCH
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...21/LEW
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