572
FXUS62 KILM 080650
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
150 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND,
WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MUGGY TEMPERATURES DOMINATING. A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH IT. THE FIRST FREEZE ARRIVES MONDAY
NIGHT, LIKELY ENDING THE GROWING SEASON FOR MOST. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES/HIGHLIGHTS:
*HAZARDS: VERY LOW RISK FOR A SEVERE STORM NEAR/WEST OF I-95
LATE THIS AFTN/EVE
*RAIN CHANCES: BELOW NORMAL TODAY; NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT
*TEMPS: ABOVE NORMAL
*CONFIDENCE: MODERATE TO HIGH
DETAILS: A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THIS AM WILL
STALL NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP SE NC AND
NE SC IN AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WITH SOME RAIN
CHANCES, MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF I-95. ALTHOUGH WE DON'T EXPECT MUCH
INSTABILITY THERE MAY BE ENOUGH TO MIX WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR
TO PRODUCE A DAMAGING WIND GUST AND/OR LARGE HAIL WELL INLAND LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TODAY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S MOST LOCALES WITH NOT MANY SPOTS FALLING BELOW 60
DEGREES TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
A BROAD UPPER LOW SPINNING NEAR THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER WILL
ELONGATE AND EVENTUALLY SPLIT INTO TWO LOWS, WITH THE SOUTHERN
CUTOFF LOW DIPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL HELP DRIVE A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND
MID-ATLANTIC STATES, WHICH WILL PROPEL A PRETTY STRONG COLD FRONT
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
LINGERING SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER INLAND SHOULD PUSH
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY MORNING, ALLOWING FOR A LULL IN THE
ACTIVITY. RICH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME CONSIDERABLE WAA, WITH HIGHS FLIRTING WITH 80 DEGREES BY THE
AFTERNOON. IT'LL ALSO FEEL MUGGY BY NOVEMBER STANDARDS, WITH
DEWPOINTS RISING UP INTO THE MID-TO-UPPER 60S. THIS WILL HELP
TRIGGER SOME DECENT BUOYANCY AND LOW-LEVEL LIFT FOR SOME SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF YOU SQUINT AT IT,
THERE ARE SOME INDICATORS OF SEVERE GUSTS WITHIN THESE STORMS, BUT
THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT SUPER CONDUCIVE. WHILE DCAPE VALUES COULD BE
IN THE 600-700 J/KG RANGE, AND BULK SHEAR LOOKS TO SOAR UP TO 50-60
KTS, THERE'S NOT A TON OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THERE IS SOME FORCING
UP TO 700 MB ASSOCIATED WITH A LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT THE BEST FORCING REMAINS EITHER LOCKED UP
IN THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE NORTHEAST WITH THE SURFACE LOW, OR WELL
TO THE WEST WITH THE TROUGH AXIS. THAT VORTICITY WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS DOESN'T EVEN ARRIVE UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT, WELL AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND MOISTURE PRESENCE.
ULTIMATELY, WHILE WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME VERY ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE GUSTS, WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. FRONT
PUSHES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT, BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN CHANCES.
SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION TURNS ON IMMEDIATELY AFTER, WITH LOWS
DIPPING DOWN INTO THE MID-TO-UPPER 40S FOR MOST. SOME IN THE PEE DEE
REGION MAY EVEN BOTTOM OUT TOWARDS 40 DEGREES.
COLDEST AIR THIS SEASON STARTS TO REALLY SINK ITS TEETH INTO THE
AREA BY MONDAY. HIGHS ONLY GET INTO THE MID 50S MONDAY, WITH A STIFF
WNW BREEZE THAT MAY GUST UP TO 25 MPH AT TIMES. MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS
TO BRING A VERY SOLID FREEZE TO THE AREA, ONE THAT PROBABLY ENDS THE
GROWING SEASON FOR MOST FOLKS ACROSS NORTHEAST SC AND SOUTHEAST NC
(THE COAST MIGHT AVOID THE FREEZE FOR NOW, BUT WE'LL SEE). WE'RE
STILL TOO FAR OUT TO ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH JUST YET, BUT IT APPEARS
IMMINENT IN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
BREAK OUT THE HOT CHOCOLATE TUESDAY, AS HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO HIT 50
DEGREES IN SOME SPOTS. AIR MASS WILL START TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF
MODIFICATION BY TUESDAY NIGHT, AS WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS
DIP INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 30S. AT FIRST GLANCE, ONE MAY THINK ABOUT
FROST, BUT CONDITIONS LOOK TOO DRY AND BREEZY FOR FROST FORMATION,
SO AN ADVISORY PROBABLY ISN'T NEEDED (THAT IS, IF ANY GROWING
SEASONS SURVIVE THE PREVIOUS NIGHT'S FREEZE).
DRY FORECAST ONGOING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD, ACCOMPANIED BY
CONTINUED AIR MASS MODIFICATION AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S WEDNESDAY BECOME THE MID-TO-UPPER
60S THURSDAY. LOWS EACH NIGHT IN THE LOWER 40S. A DRY COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT, SHAVING OFF ONLY A FEW
DEGREES FOR FRIDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF THE
06Z/08 TAF PERIOD. A STALLING WEAK COLD FRONT NORTH AND WEST OF THE
AREA WILL KEEP SE NC AND NE SC IN AN UNSEASONABLY WARM/HUMID AIR
MASS WITH AN INCREASING RISK FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS LATE
TODAY/TONIGHT, MAINLY INLAND A KLBT/KFLO.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE
OF A LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF MVFR OR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS EARLY SUN DUE
TO LOW CLOUDS/SHOWERS/POSSIBLE STORMS. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED SUN
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS
LATER IN THE DAY AND SUN NIGHT. BREEZY WINDS EXPECTED MON THROUGH
WED.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. A STALLING WEAK COLD FRONT TO
THE NORTH AND WEST WILL YIELD MAINLY S/SW WINDS GUSTING TO
AROUND 20 KT WITH SIGNIFICANT SEAS MOSTLY 3 FT OR LESS.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GRADIENT WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO 20-23 KTS
LIKELY, WITH SEAS UP TO 3-4 FT. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT, ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT WESTERLY AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY BY
MONDAY MORNING. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL TEMPORARILY BRING THE SEAS DOWN
SLIGHTLY TO 2-3 FT. BY MONDAY EVENING, THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS, AND
FREQUENT WIND GUSTS OVER 25 KTS LOOK TO BRING ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY
OF A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. FROM
THERE, GRADIENT WINDS START TO LOOSEN, WITH WESTERLY WINDS
DECREASING TO 15 KTS, AND SEAS LINGERING AT 2-3 FT. WINDS BACK
SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WHERE
ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MIGHT BE NEEDED BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...IGB
LONG TERM...IGB
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...RJB/IGB
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