514
FXUS62 KILM 081811
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
111 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND,
WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MUGGY TEMPERATURES DOMINATING. A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH IT. THE FIRST FREEZE ARRIVES MONDAY
NIGHT, LIKELY ENDING THE GROWING SEASON FOR MOST AREAS AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE BY
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
OVERALL A SOMEWHAT WEAKLY FORCED PATTERN WILL BE IN
PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER WITH A COUPLE OF WEAK
BOUNDARIES...SOME SUBTLE SYNOPTIC LIFT AND AMPLE INSTABILITY THERE
WILL BE SOME CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. THE PRIMARY TIMING APPEARS TO
BE TRENDING TOWARD THIS EVENING LINGERING FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THE
HIGHER POPS RESIDE NEAR THE PEE DEE REGION THEN PUSHING MORE TOWARD
THE NORTH AND MORE INLAND IN TIME. A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER REMAINS IN PLACE FOR MOST AREAS WEST OF THE COAST AND SEEMS
REASONABLE NOTING THE INSTABILITY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TODAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE LOWER TO PROBABLY MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE 60S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
TO START OUT WE'LL HAVE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA,
SHOWERS/STORMS ONLY LINGERING IN SE NC BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE BY
MONDAY MORNING. ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE POSSIBLE DUE TO
FAVORABLE SHEAR, BUT THE ISSUE WILL BE COVERAGE. RAINFALL SHOULD BE
BRIEF AS THE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. COLD, DRY NW FLOW WILL THEN BUILD
IN BEHIND THIS FRONT CAUSING COOLING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
NW TO W WINDS WILL GUST 20-25 MPH DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH
CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THEN AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS
MORE REINFORCING DRY AIR PUSHES IN ALOFT. IT'S LIKELY WE'LL GET OUR
FIRST FREEZE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH LOWS NEAR 30
(~15 DEGREES LOWER THAN WHAT THEY'LL BE SUNDAY NIGHT). THE ONLY
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE
NEAR 50 BUT WITH THE WINDS IT MAY FEEL MORE LIKE THE 40S. DUE TO THE
WINDY CONDITIONS I'M ALSO NOT ACCOUNTING FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING OF
OUR COLDER SPOTS AS IT SHOULD SERVE TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
WE'LL START WARMING THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE COLD
AIRMASS BEGINS TO MODERATE AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE HAS SLOWED DOWN SOME, NOW EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY. DRY AIR IN
PLACE WILL KEEP THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE DRY. HIGHS IN THE 60S, LOWS
NEAR 40.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME MORE
PROBLEMATIC IN TIME LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE PEE
DEE REGION AND WOBBLE AND OR FILL IN TO THE NORTH. LOWER CONFIDENCE
ONLY WARRANTS PROB30/TSRA GROUPS AT THE MOMENT BUT MAY BE ELEVATED
TO TEMPO IN TIME. BEYOND THIS LIGHT SOME IFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP
INLAND IN THE WAKE OF CONVECTION SUNDAY MORNING AND LINGER FOR SOME
TIME.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF AN AREA OF
CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS QUICKLY SUNDAY EVENING.
MARINE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...NO REAL CHANGES IN THE PATTERN OR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS WITH SIGNIFICANT
SEAS OF 2-4 FEET.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A HEIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAKE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE STARTING MONDAY NIGHT.
OFFSHORE WINDS 20-25 KTS WILL LINGER UNTIL A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
THURSDAY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTERWARDS. WAVEHEIGHTS WILL
REACH 4-6 FT MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN 4-6 FT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...SHK/LEW
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