345
FXUS62 KILM 090032
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
732 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND,
WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MUGGY TEMPERATURES DOMINATING. A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH IT. THE FIRST FREEZE ARRIVES MONDAY
NIGHT, LIKELY ENDING THE GROWING SEASON FOR MOST AREAS AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE BY
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
OVERALL A SOMEWHAT WEAKLY FORCED PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER WITH A COUPLE OF WEAK BOUNDARIES...SOME
SUBTLE SYNOPTIC LIFT AND AMPLE INSTABILITY THERE WILL BE SOME
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. THE PRIMARY TIMING APPEARS TO BE
TRENDING TOWARD THIS EVENING LINGERING FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THE
HIGHER POPS RESIDE NEAR THE PEE DEE REGION THEN PUSHING MORE
TOWARD THE NORTH AND MORE INLAND IN TIME. A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS IN PLACE FOR MOST AREAS WEST OF THE COAST
AND SEEMS REASONABLE NOTING THE INSTABILITY AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TODAY AND
AGAIN SUNDAY WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO PROBABLY MORE
LIKE THE MIDDLE 60S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
TO START OUT WE'LL HAVE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA, SHOWERS/STORMS ONLY LINGERING IN SE NC BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE BY MONDAY MORNING. ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE
POSSIBLE DUE TO FAVORABLE SHEAR, BUT THE ISSUE WILL BE COVERAGE.
RAINFALL SHOULD BE BRIEF AS THE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. COLD, DRY
NW FLOW WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT CAUSING COOLING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. NW TO W WINDS WILL GUST 20-25
MPH DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY AND THEN AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS MORE REINFORCING DRY AIR
PUSHES IN ALOFT. IT'S LIKELY WE'LL GET OUR FIRST FREEZE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH LOWS NEAR 30 (~15 DEGREES LOWER
THAN WHAT THEY'LL BE SUNDAY NIGHT). THE ONLY UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE NEAR 50 BUT WITH
THE WINDS IT MAY FEEL MORE LIKE THE 40S. DUE TO THE WINDY
CONDITIONS I'M ALSO NOT ACCOUNTING FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING OF
OUR COLDER SPOTS AS IT SHOULD SERVE TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
WE'LL START WARMING THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE
COLD AIRMASS BEGINS TO MODERATE AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS SLOWED DOWN SOME, NOW EXPECTED FOR
THURSDAY. DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL KEEP THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE DRY.
HIGHS IN THE 60S, LOWS NEAR 40.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR TO START OFF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. STILL EXPECTING CEILINGS TO
LOWER TONIGHT INLAND ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR/IFR
AT LBT/FLO UNTIL EARLY/MID MORNING SUNDAY. VFR AND DRY WITH
10-15 KT SW WIND THEN FOR DAYTIME SUNDAY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF AN AREA OF
CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS QUICKLY SUNDAY EVENING LEADING TO A LOW
CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
MARINE
THROUGH SUNDAY...NO REAL CHANGES IN THE PATTERN OR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS WITH SIGNIFICANT SEAS OF 2-4
FEET.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A HEIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAKE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE STARTING MONDAY NIGHT.
OFFSHORE WINDS 20-25 KTS WILL LINGER UNTIL A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
THURSDAY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTERWARDS. WAVEHEIGHTS WILL
REACH 4-6 FT MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN 4-6 FT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...SHK/LEW
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