706
FXUS62 KILM 090636
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
136 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. COLDER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
RETURN, BRINGING THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON BY MONDAY NIGHT,
ALONG WITH BLUSTERY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE GRADUALLY GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES/HIGHLIGHTS:
*HAZARDS: VERY LOW RISK FOR A SEVERE STORM W/ DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND/OR LARGE HAIL, MAINLY NEAR/EAST OF I-95 LATE THIS AFTN/EVE
*RAIN CHANCES: BELOW NORMAL TODAY; NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT
*TEMPS: ABOVE NORMAL TODAY; NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT
*CONFIDENCE: MODERATE TO HIGH
DETAILS: AFTER A FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
EARLY THIS AM, ESPECIALLY INLAND, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
ALL THROUGH ABOUT MID AFTERNOON. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN
APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING THROUGH
TONIGHT. UNSEASONABLY WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
YIELD SOME INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CERTAINLY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HOWEVER, THE LACK OF STRONG
INSTABILITY/FORCING SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT,
ESPECIALLY SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER, CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
SEVERE STORM WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR LARGE HAIL, MAINLY NEAR/EAST
OF I-95. OTHERWISE, BREEZY SW WINDS TODAY WILL SHIFT TO THE NW
TONIGHT AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S MOST LOCALES WITH LOWS TONIGHT FALLING
BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S INLAND AND CLOSE TO 50 AT THE COAST
LATE TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
BASE OF THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE, AND STRONG
CAA WILL BRING IN THE COLDEST AIR WE'VE SEEN IN SEVERAL MONTHS.
HIGHS MONDAY ONLY REACH THE MID-TO-UPPER 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA, WHILE PARTS OF THE PEE DEE REGION MAY ONLY SEE THE LOWER 50S.
STOUT WNW WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE QUITE THE BLUSTERY DAY, WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH BEING THE NORM. MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE A LOCK
FOR A FREEZE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA (THINK EVEN THE COAST WILL GET
THERE). FREEZE WATCH ISSUED THIS FORECAST CYCLE, VALID FROM 10 PM
EST MONDAY UNTIL 9 AM EST TUESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY END THE GROWING
SEASON FOR MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA.
TUESDAY KEEPS THE VERY CHILLY TREND AROUND, WITH MOST AREAS
STRUGGLING TO HIT 50 DEGREES, UNDER THE SAME BLUSTERY GUSTS OF 20-25
MPH. GRADIENT WINDS FINALLY START TO LOOSEN HEADING INTO TUESDAY
EVENING, BACKING SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
START TO MODERATE A BIT, WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S THIS TIME AROUND.
STILL LOOKS TOO DRY AND BREEZY FOR FROST, SO I DON'T THINK AN
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED (IF THE GROWING SEASON IS STILL ONGOING FOR
ANYONE AT THAT POINT).
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
QUIET FORECAST ON THE WAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM UP, DESPITE A DRY COLD FRONT THAT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S
WEDNESDAY BECOME THE MID-TO-UPPER 60S THURSDAY, FRIDAY, AND
SATURDAY. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 40S, BEFORE THAT DRY
FRONT BRINGS THEM DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT. BY
FRIDAY NIGHT, THEY BOUNCE RIGHT BACK INTO THE LOWER 40S.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
06Z/09 TAF PERIOD. LOW CLOUDS (MOSTLY MVFR W/ IFR POSSIBLE) AND
MAYBE SOME SHOWERS SHOULD IMPACT THE INLAND TERMINALS (KLBT/KFLO)
THROUGH AROUND 15Z, THEN MAINLY VFR AT ALL TERMINALS OUTSIDE OF
RESTRICTIONS FROM SHOWERS/POSSIBLE STORMS GENERALLY AFTER 21Z.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VERY LOW RISK FOR MVFR CIGS EARLY MON. BREEZY
WINDS EXPECTED MON THROUGH WED.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH TONIGHT BRINGING INCREASING WINDS BUT STAYING MOSTLY 20 KT
OR LESS AND THE OFFSHORE TRAJECTORY WILL LIMIT SEAS TO 4 FT OR LESS.
THUS, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...STOUT GRADIENT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ON THE
WAY MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH FREQUENT GUSTS EASILY EXCEEDING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. WINDS ARE EVEN PUSHING UP TOWARDS GALE
FORCE, AND THE TRENDS MIGHT BE POINTING TOWARDS A GALE WATCH BY THE
NEXT FORECAST CYCLE OR TWO, BUT I DIDN'T WANT TO JUMP TO CONCLUSIONS
JUST YET. SEAS 3-5 FT AT THE COAST, 6-7 FT OUT 20 NM FROM SHORE. BY
TUESDAY EVENING, THE GRADIENT BACKS OFF A BIT, TAKING US OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA TEMPORARILY, AND WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE
SOUTHWEST. SEAS BRIEFLY FALL TO 2-4 FT. GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN
AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT (THIS ONE
DRIER AND WEAKER THAN THE LAST). ADVISORY CONDITIONS LOOK POSSIBLE
AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH SEAS UP TO 3-4 FT AT THE
COAST, 5-6 FT AWAY FROM SHORE. AFTER THE FRONT PULLS FURTHER
OFFSHORE, WINDS FINALLY COME DOWN TO LESS THAN 10 KTS. SEAS TREND
TOWARD 1-2 FT.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...IGB
LONG TERM...IGB
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...RJB/IGB
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