572
FXUS62 KILM 091825
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
125 PM EST SUN NOV 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. COLD, DRY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL BRING THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON MONDAY NIGHT. COLD,
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE AHEAD OF ANOTHER, WEAKER COLD
FRONT. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
THE LONG ADVERTISED COLD FRONT IS NOW PUSHING THROUGH
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND IS ON SCHEDULE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA FROM ABOUT 00 AND 06 UTC TONIGHT. THE MAIN THRUST OF THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR LATER MONDAY NIGHT BUT FOR TONIGHT
THE BOUNDARY WILL SPARK A NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION DURING THE
AFOREMENTIONED TIME PERIOD. ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE
FOR A LOW RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER AND THE LONG ADVERTISED
MARGINAL RISK FROM SPC COVERS THIS ACCORDINGLY. THE NARROW LINE
IN SOME MODEL DEPICTIONS SEEMS TO FILL IN AS A RESPONSE TO
SECONDARY SYNOPTIC LIFT/JETTING WELL TO THE WEST AND IF THIS
OCCURS DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS (FOR AN OVERALL MOISTURE
CHALLENGED SYSTEM) COULD BE REALIZED. REGARDING
TEMPERATURES...ONCE AGAIN TO REEMPHASIZE THE HEART OF THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION DOESN'T OCCUR UNTIL MONDAY EVENING THERE WILL BE
SOME. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE MIDDLE 40S AND RECOVER A
BIT LATER MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE 50S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE WITH DRY, COLD CONDITIONS IN
PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FREEZE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE
WHOLE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. DESPITE NW WINDS ~15
MPH WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH, THE COLD WILL BE DUE TO THE STRONG CAA
RATHER THAN RADIATIONAL COOLING, SO LOWS WILL BE RELATIVELY UNIFORM
ACROSS THE AREA AS OPPOSED TO THE SHARP DROP OFF WE'VE SEEN IN OUR
TRADITIONALLY COLDER SPOTS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO JUST
UNDER FREEZING AT THE COAST. CLEAR SKIES AND BREEZY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY WITH HIGHS BARELY REACHING 50 IN SOME SPOTS
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST, A MAJORITY OF PLACES IN THE UPPER 40S. SW
FLOW AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL START TO BUILD IN TUESDAY
NIGHT BUT LOWS WILL STILL HOVER NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WE WARM TO NEAR
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK, DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVERHEAD AND STAY IN
CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD OUTSIDE OF A WINDOW OF MVFR TO POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING. AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AROUND 00 UTC
A CONVECTIVE LINE WILL ACCOMPANY OR DEVELOP ALONG IT. THE SHOWERS
MAY BACK BUILD A BIT IN TIME DUE TO MORE SYNOPTIC FORCING. PROB 30
GROUPS HAVE BEEN ASSIGNED FOR THE POSSIBLE THUNDER AND LOWER
CEILINGS. SOME SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS NOTED EARLY MONDAY MORNING BUT
NOT NECESSARILY IDEAL CONDITIONS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE MAIN HEADLINE REMAINS THE STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL DRAMATICALLY
CHANGE MARINE ELEMENTS FOR SEVERAL DAYS. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF
15-20 KNOTS THIS EVENING WILL BRIEFLY SWITCH TO WEST THEN
NORTHWEST. WHILE WIND SPEEDS MAY GUST TO 25 KNOTS MONDAY THE
OVERALL EMPHASIS OF THE FORECAST IS THE GALE WATCH FOR MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY SO NO INTERVENING HEADLINE FOR SCA. THE
SOMEWHAT CHANGEABLE FETCH WILL LIMIT SIGNIFICANT SEAS TO A
DEGREE AND 3-5 FEET IS REASONABLE.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT COULD LEAD TO GALE FORCE WINDS AND 4-7 FT WAVES OVERNIGHT
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A SLIGHT LULL IN WINDS MAY OCCUR
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BRIEFLY OVERHEAD
BEFORE STRONG SW WINDS BUILD IN AGAIN MIDWEEK AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS AND IMPROVING CONDITIONS
AFTERWARDS. WAVEHEIGHTS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY WITH 6 FOOTERS
POSSIBLE AGAIN BEFORE THEY SETTLE TO 1-3 FT FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK BEHIND THE FRONT.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
AMZ250-252-254-256.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...SHK/LEW
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