506
FXUS62 KILM 100040
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
740 PM EST SUN NOV 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. COLD, DRY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL BRING THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON MONDAY NIGHT. COLD,
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE AHEAD OF ANOTHER, WEAKER COLD
FRONT. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
MARINE UPDATE...RAISED A SEGMENTED SCA, SC WATERS AT 3AM MON,
NC WATERS AT 6AM MON, THAT WILL LEAD UP TO THE GALE WATCH
THAT COMMENCES AT 7PM MON. MAINLY BASED ON NW WIND GUSTS
PERIODICALLY GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 KT. WITH AN OFFSHORE WIND
TRAJECTORY, WILL SEE A RANGE OF SEAS LOWEST NEARSHORE AND
HIGHEST 20 NM OUT.
BASED ON KLTX 88D TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS, TWEAKED HOURLY POPS,
TEMPS, DEWPOINTS AND WINDS FOR THIS EVENING AND MESHED THESE
ELEMENTS TO THE OVERNIGHT INTO DAYTIME MON HOURS. PCPN ACTIVITY
TO DEVELOP IN SHORT LINES OR SEGMENTS AND PROGRESS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SC AND NC CWA DURING THE REMAINDER OF THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NC
CWA.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
THE LONG ADVERTISED COLD FRONT IS NOW PUSHING THROUGH
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND IS ON SCHEDULE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA FROM ABOUT 00 AND 06 UTC TONIGHT. THE MAIN THRUST OF THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR LATER MONDAY NIGHT BUT FOR TONIGHT
THE BOUNDARY WILL SPARK A NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION DURING THE
AFOREMENTIONED TIME PERIOD. ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE
FOR A LOW RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER AND THE LONG ADVERTISED
MARGINAL RISK FROM SPC COVERS THIS ACCORDINGLY. THE NARROW LINE
IN SOME MODEL DEPICTIONS SEEMS TO FILL IN AS A RESPONSE TO
SECONDARY SYNOPTIC LIFT/JETTING WELL TO THE WEST AND IF THIS
OCCURS DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS (FOR AN OVERALL MOISTURE
CHALLENGED SYSTEM) COULD BE REALIZED. REGARDING
TEMPERATURES...ONCE AGAIN TO REEMPHASIZE THE HEART OF THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION DOESN'T OCCUR UNTIL MONDAY EVENING THERE WILL BE
SOME. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE MIDDLE 40S AND RECOVER A
BIT LATER MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE 50S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE WITH DRY, COLD CONDITIONS
IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FREEZE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT
FOR THE WHOLE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. DESPITE NW
WINDS ~15 MPH WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH, THE COLD WILL BE DUE TO THE
STRONG CAA RATHER THAN RADIATIONAL COOLING, SO LOWS WILL BE
RELATIVELY UNIFORM ACROSS THE AREA AS OPPOSED TO THE SHARP DROP
OFF WE'VE SEEN IN OUR TRADITIONALLY COLDER SPOTS. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE MID 20S TO JUST UNDER FREEZING AT THE COAST. CLEAR SKIES
AND BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY WITH HIGHS BARELY
REACHING 50 IN SOME SPOTS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST, A MAJORITY
OF PLACES IN THE UPPER 40S. SW FLOW AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL START TO BUILD IN TUESDAY NIGHT BUT LOWS WILL STILL HOVER
NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WE WARM TO NEAR
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK, DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVERHEAD AND
STAY IN CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD.
HOWEVER, AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER THIS EVENING,
EXPECT MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS FROM CEILINGS AND PCPN.
THUNDER LOOKS TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE OTHER THAN POSSIBLY
INDICATING VCTS ESPECIALLY AT THE FLO TERMINAL. LINE SEGMENTS
AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS SE NC AND NE SC
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD PRIOR TO THE ACTUAL CFP.
WILL USE PROB 30 GROUPS TO CONVEY THIS THREAT OF REDUCED VSBY
FROM PCPN AND LOWERED CEILINGS. HAVE BEEN ASSIGNED FOR THE
POSSIBLE THUNDER AND LOWER CEILINGS. WILL STILL REMAIN EAST OF
THE LARGE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF WITH ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE
FORM OF FEW/SCT LOW TOPPED/SHUNTED GROWTH CU OR SCU DURING MON
ESPECIALLY AS THE UPPER TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATER IN
THE DAY. WILL SEE WINDS VEER FROM THE SSW-SW TO GUSTY W-NW AFTER
THE CFP OVERNIGHT AS THE TIGHTENED SFC PG AND INITIAL CAA
COMBINE. GUSTY NW DAYTIME MON WILL BECOME GUSTY W MON AFTN AND
NIGHT AS THE SFC PG REMAINS TIGHTENED BUT WITH A SECONDARY CAA
SURGE.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS.
MARINE
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE MAIN HEADLINE REMAINS THE STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL DRAMATICALLY
CHANGE MARINE ELEMENTS FOR SEVERAL DAYS. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF
15-20 KNOTS THIS EVENING WILL BRIEFLY SWITCH TO WEST THEN
NORTHWEST. WHILE WIND SPEEDS MAY GUST TO 25 KNOTS MONDAY THE
OVERALL EMPHASIS OF THE FORECAST IS THE GALE WATCH FOR MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY SO NO INTERVENING HEADLINE FOR SCA. THE
SOMEWHAT CHANGEABLE FETCH WILL LIMIT SIGNIFICANT SEAS TO A
DEGREE AND 3-5 FEET IS REASONABLE.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT COULD LEAD TO GALE FORCE WINDS AND 4-7 FT WAVES
OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A SLIGHT LULL IN WINDS
MAY OCCUR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BRIEFLY
OVERHEAD BEFORE STRONG SW WINDS BUILD IN AGAIN MIDWEEK AHEAD OF
ANOTHER COLD FRONT, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS
AND IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTERWARDS. WAVEHEIGHTS WILL INCREASE
WEDNESDAY WITH 6 FOOTERS POSSIBLE AGAIN BEFORE THEY SETTLE TO
1-3 FT FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK BEHIND THE FRONT.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ250-
252.
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
AMZ250-252-254-256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ254-
256.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...DCH
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...SHK/LEW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page