630
FXUS62 KILM 101100
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
600 AM EST MON NOV 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TAPERING OFF AS THE STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE LATER THIS MORNING. COLD, DRY
CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE
SEASON TONIGHT. COLD, BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE AHEAD OF
ANOTHER, WEAKER COLD FRONT. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE THIS MORNING WITH COLD ADVECTION
TO FOLLOW. WHILE THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR DOESN'T ARRIVE UNTIL LATE
IN THE DAY, THE DEVELOPING COLD ADVECTION WILL STILL LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON. THE 24 HOUR SWING IN
HIGHS FROM SUN TO MON IS LIKELY TO BE AROUND 25 DEGREES WITH MANY
AREAS STRUGGLING TO HIT MID 50S. DEEP DRY AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THE
COLD AIR, AS WILL STRONG WINDS ALOFT. THESE WINDS, 25-30 KT AT THE
TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER, WILL SURFACE LEADING TO GUSTS TO 30 MPH IN
THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL DIP UNDER 30% IN PLACES,
CREATING SOME BORDERLINE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR ARRIVES THIS EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES
TUMBLING EVEN AS THE NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE. THE STRENGTH OF THE
COLD AIR IS IMPRESSIVE. PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES WITH THE AIR MASS
WOULD SUPPORT TEENS FOR MUCH OF THE ARE IF NOT FOR THE STRONG MIXING
DUE TO THE WINDS. EVEN WITH THE WINDS TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
WILL DROP BELOW 32 WITH MUCH OF THE AREA UNDER 30. SEEMS LIKE A
CERTAIN END TO THE GROWING SEASON AND THE FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT. MAY SEE SOME CLOUDS IN THE EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT-ISH AS A
STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAD. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION
WITH THE SHORTWAVE GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR, ALTHOUGH THE
SHORTWAVE IS ON THE STRONG SIDE. IF THERE IS MORE MOISTURE PRESENT
THAN CURRENTLY CAPTURED BY THE GUIDANCE AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE OR
FLURRY IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
QUIET AND WINDY SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. HIGHS TUESDAY ONLY REACH
THE UPPER 40S, RUNNING BASICALLY 20+ DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID-
NOVEMBER. A STOUT WIND OUT OF THE WNW BRINGS FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO 25-
30 MPH, WHICH ADD A BIT OF A WIND CHILL COMPLICATION INTO THE MIX.
IT MAY ONLY FEEL LIKE THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE AFTERNOON.
BREAK OUT THE LAYERS AND THE LIP BALM FOR THIS ONE. ALSO IMPORTANT
TO NOTE THAT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MAY DIP DOWN INTO 25-30% AT
SOME POINT IN THE DAY. COMBINED WITH THE WINDS, THERE COULD BE SOME
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. DOESN'T LOOK LIKE A GOOD DAY TO BURN.
WINDS DECREASE TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT STILL KEEP A BREEZE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST. LOWS LINGER NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING. STILL LOOKS MUCH
TOO DRY AND BREEZY FOR FROST, SO NO ADVISORY EXPECTED (IF THE
GROWING SEASON HASN'T ALREADY ENDED, THAT IS).
START TO SEE SOME GOOD AIR MASS MODIFICATION WEDNESDAY, WITH THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE NEARING THE GA/FL BORDER. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
60S, WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE GUSTING UP TO 20-25 MPH AT TIMES.
WINDS FINALLY COME DOWN FOR GOOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT VEER TOWARDS
THE WNW WITH A DRY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 40S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
WITH THE DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY MORNING, HIGH
PRESSURE SETS THE TONE YET AGAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES REBOUND CONSIDERABLY, WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, POSSIBLY HITTING 70 BY SATURDAY.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S THURSDAY NIGHT GRADUALLY BECOME THE MID-TO-
UPPER 40S BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS BY SUNDAY, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO KICK UP
ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE STRONG COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. VFR WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST WITH
THE ONLY CONCERN THE NEXT 24 HOURS HOURS BEING GUSTY WEST AND
NORTHWEST WINDS. GUSTS AROUND 25 KT WILL DEVELOP BY MID-MORNING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. BRIEF DROP IN WINDS LATE
AFTERNOON BEFORE SURGE OF COLD AIR ARRIVES, INCREASING WINDS IN
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SECOND ROUND OF GUSTS WON'T BE QUITE
AS STRONG AS THOSE IN THE AFTERNOON BUT STILL EXPECTING 20-25 KT
OVERNIGHT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...COLD FRONT CROSSING THE WATERS THIS MORNING WILL
BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WITH
HEADLINES IN EFFECT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE GALE
WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING STARTING THIS EVENING
AND GOING INTO TUE MORNING. HEADLINES MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
BEYOND THE END OF THE GALE WARNING. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL
RESULT IN OFFSHORE FLOW 20-25 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING TO 30-35 KT THIS EVENING ONCE THE SECONDARY SURGE OF
COLD AIR ARRIVES. INITIALLY THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL KEEP
SEAS WITHIN 20 NM UNDER 5 FT. HOWEVER, ONCE LATE DAY ENHANCED
NORTHWEST FLOW ARRIVES SPEEDS WILL BE SUCH THAT SEAS BUILD OVER
6 FT WITHIN 20 NM DESPITE THE WIND DIRECTION BEING OFFSHORE. A
WEAK SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL REMAIN PRESENT THROUGH
TONIGHT, BUT THE STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN AN UNUSUAL
WESTERLY WIND WAVE FOR MUCH OF THE COASTAL WATERS.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GALE WARNING IS OFFICIALLY SET TO EXPIRE AT
8 AM EST TUESDAY, THOUGH THAT IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE. EITHER WAY, A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THEREAFTER UNTIL TUESDAY
EVENING OR SO. STOUT WESTERLY WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, AND PERK RIGHT BACK UP INTO ADVISORY
CRITERIA ONCE AGAIN. A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING, WHICH CUTS OFF THE ADVISORY CONDITIONS AND
WINDS VEER TO THE NORTHWEST BY SUNRISE. WINDS GRADUALLY SLOW AND
VEER TO THE NORTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY, AND SEAS COME ALL THE
WAY DOWN TO 1-2 FT. VARIABLE WINDS UNDER 10 KTS FRIDAY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
252.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
AMZ250-252-254-256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ254-
256.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...III
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...IGB
LONG TERM...IGB
AVIATION...III
MARINE...III/IGB
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