496
FXUS62 KILM 121809
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
109 PM EST WED NOV 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT WITH NOT
MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE. EXPECT UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
OVER THE WEEKEND. A COUPLE OF FRONTS WILL AFFECT THE AREA EARLY
TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY A LIMITED CHANCE OF ANY RAIN,
MAINLY ON TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
DRY, BREEZY, AND CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOW 60S. AFTER SUNSET,
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE, BUT GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS. MEANWHILE, AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES
BY TO THE NORTH, ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND TODAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY TONIGHT. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM THIS LOW WILL SLIDE THROUGH
OVERNIGHT, WITH A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BEING THE ONLY NOTICEABLE
CHANGE IN THE WEATHER. SOMEWHAT DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR WILL FILTER DOWN
BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY WHILE A PLUME OF HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL LEAD TO CIRRUS DEVELOPING OFF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, WHICH
SHOULD REACH NORTHERN AREAS DURING THE DAY. NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
ALSO BECOME GUSTY WITH SPEEDS OF 15-20MPH PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS AS A BELT OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL FLOW PASSES THROUGH. WITH
VIRTUALLY NO COLD AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT AND DEEP-LAYER NORTHWEST
FLOW RESULTING IN DOWNSLOPE WARMING, EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO REACH INTO
THE MID-UPPER 60S BENEATH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST THURS NIGHT INTO FRI WILL
VEER WINDS TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION BRINGING A LITTLE REINFORCING
SHOT OF DRIER AIR INTO FRI MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES COOLER FOR LOWS THURS NIGHT, DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S
MOST PLACES INLAND AND 40S ALONG THE COAST. BETTER RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL HELP TO PRODUCE LOWER TEMPS THURS NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY IN TRADITIONALLY COOLER SPOTS ACROSS THE AREA. SOME
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS MAY SPILL DOWN IN NW FLOW OVER THE RIDGE ON
FRI, BUT OVERALL PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 60S.
THE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTH FRI NIGHT WITH A
W-SW RETURN FLOW SETTING UP FOR THE WEEKEND. FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS
WILL DROP TO THE LOW TO MID 40S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
WARM WEEKEND EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPS INTO
THE 70S. WITH THE CENTER OF HIGH SPRAWLED SOUTH OF THE AREA, THE
WINDS WILL BE W TO SW THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS. THE 850 TEMPS
RISE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES C AND SHOULD SEE A GOOD AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE.
A BIT OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY PRODUCE SOME PASSING MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS ON SAT AS IT PUSHES A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS.
THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT FLOW PRODUCING SOME GUSTY WINDS
SAT INTO SUN. THE MID TO UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS OVER THE GULF AND
SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST WITH A BROADER TROUGH TO THE NORTH HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE A GREATER WESTERLY AND MORE
ZONAL FLOW INTO NEXT WEEK AND MAY HELP TO STALL THE COLD FRONT
OVER THE CAROLINAS SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOULD SEE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOR MON AS THIS
FRONT REACHES INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE BEST CHC OF PCP THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH COME AS SHORTWAVE TRACKS EAST INTO AND
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS ON TUES ENHANCING SOME LIFT ALONG THIS
STALLED BOUNDARY, BEFORE PUSHING STALLED FRONT SOUTH AND EAST
BY TUES NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD DOWN FROM THE UPPER NW
BEHIND IT FOR MIDWEEK. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL,
BUT IT DEPENDS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THESE FEATURES. OVERALL,
EXPECT TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50.
AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST TO
SOUTWEST WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING, BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN STEADY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY VEER TO NORTHWESTERLY AS A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES
THROUGH. AS SURFACE WINDS WEAKEN THIS EVENING, THE CHANCE REMAINS
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE, BUT THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES WIND PROFILES WILL BE
JUST SHY OF THE 30KT LLWS CRITERIA, SO WILL OPT TO LEAVE IT OUT OF
THE TAF AT THIS TIME, ALTHOUGH PILOTS SHOULD BE AWARE LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR WILL BE CLOSE TO 30 KTS AFTER DARK. AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW,
SOME GUSTINESS MAY DEVELOP BY MID-MORNING AS A BELT OF ENHANCED FLOW
CROSSES NORTH CAROLINA, BUT WITH THE NC TERMINALS ON THE SOUTHERN
FRINGES OF THIS BELT, HAVE NOT INCLUDED GUSTS IN THE TAF AT THIS
TIME.
MARINE
THROUGH THURSDAY... ELEVATED WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT WILL MAINTAIN SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY
WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25-30 KTS, ESPECIALLY IN OUTER PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER, THESE CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND THE FRONT DRAWS
NEARER, WITH THE SCA SCHEDULED TO END AT 06Z. A WIND SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY WILL BE THE MAIN CHANGE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE,
WHICH SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE NIGHT. SPEEDS WILL
CONTINUE DECREASING BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS
FURTHER, WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS EXPECTED DURING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, SEAS WILL ALSO COME DOWN TO AROUND 1-2 FT
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
FAIRLY MODEST WINDS AND SEAS THURS INTO THE WEEKEND WILL
INCREASE WITH APPROACH OF COLD FRONT SAT INTO SUN. NORTHERLY
WINDS ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE HIGH THURS NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI
WILL BACK AND BECOME MORE WSW TO SW FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
THE HIGH SPRAWLS OUT TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS. LOOKS
LIKE WE MAY REACH SCA THRESHOLDS BY SUNDAY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
254-256.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...ABW
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...ABW
MARINE...RGZ/ABW
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