188
FXUS62 KILM 122320
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
620 PM EST WED NOV 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT WITH NOT
MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE. EXPECT UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
OVER THE WEEKEND. A COUPLE OF FRONTS WILL AFFECT THE AREA EARLY
TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY A LIMITED CHANCE OF ANY RAIN,
MAINLY ON TUESDAY.
UPDATE
QUIET WEATHER WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WESTERLY WINDS.
TEMPS IN THE 50S THIS EVENING WILL DROP TO AROUND 40 DEGREES
JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK. AVIATION DISCUSSION IS UPDATED BELOW FOR
00Z TAFS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
DRY, BREEZY, AND CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOW 60S. AFTER SUNSET,
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE, BUT GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS. MEANWHILE, AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES
BY TO THE NORTH, ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND TODAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY TONIGHT. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM THIS LOW WILL SLIDE THROUGH
OVERNIGHT, WITH A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BEING THE ONLY NOTICEABLE
CHANGE IN THE WEATHER. SOMEWHAT DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR WILL FILTER DOWN
BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY WHILE A PLUME OF HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL LEAD TO CIRRUS DEVELOPING OFF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, WHICH
SHOULD REACH NORTHERN AREAS DURING THE DAY. NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
ALSO BECOME GUSTY WITH SPEEDS OF 15-20MPH PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS AS A BELT OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL FLOW PASSES THROUGH. WITH
VIRTUALLY NO COLD AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT AND DEEP-LAYER NORTHWEST
FLOW RESULTING IN DOWNSLOPE WARMING, EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO REACH INTO
THE MID-UPPER 60S BENEATH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST THURS NIGHT INTO FRI WILL
VEER WINDS TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION BRINGING A LITTLE REINFORCING
SHOT OF DRIER AIR INTO FRI MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES COOLER FOR LOWS THURS NIGHT, DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S
MOST PLACES INLAND AND 40S ALONG THE COAST. BETTER RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL HELP TO PRODUCE LOWER TEMPS THURS NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY IN TRADITIONALLY COOLER SPOTS ACROSS THE AREA. SOME
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS MAY SPILL DOWN IN NW FLOW OVER THE RIDGE ON
FRI, BUT OVERALL PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 60S.
THE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTH FRI NIGHT WITH A
W-SW RETURN FLOW SETTING UP FOR THE WEEKEND. FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS
WILL DROP TO THE LOW TO MID 40S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
WARM WEEKEND EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPS INTO
THE 70S. WITH THE CENTER OF HIGH SPRAWLED SOUTH OF THE AREA, THE
WINDS WILL BE W TO SW THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS. THE 850 TEMPS
RISE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES C AND SHOULD SEE A GOOD AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE.
A BIT OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY PRODUCE SOME PASSING MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS ON SAT AS IT PUSHES A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS.
THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT FLOW PRODUCING SOME GUSTY WINDS
SAT INTO SUN. THE MID TO UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS OVER THE GULF AND
SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST WITH A BROADER TROUGH TO THE NORTH HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE A GREATER WESTERLY AND MORE
ZONAL FLOW INTO NEXT WEEK AND MAY HELP TO STALL THE COLD FRONT
OVER THE CAROLINAS SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOULD SEE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOR MON AS THIS
FRONT REACHES INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE BEST CHC OF PCP THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH COME AS SHORTWAVE TRACKS EAST INTO AND
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS ON TUES ENHANCING SOME LIFT ALONG THIS
STALLED BOUNDARY, BEFORE PUSHING STALLED FRONT SOUTH AND EAST
BY TUES NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD DOWN FROM THE UPPER NW
BEHIND IT FOR MIDWEEK. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL,
BUT IT DEPENDS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THESE FEATURES. OVERALL,
EXPECT TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE WINDS WILL VEER AND
LIGHTEN A BIT MORE OVERNIGHT TO NW NEAR 5 KTS AND WILL INCREASE
TO AROUND 6 TO 10 KTS THURS AFTN OUT OF THE WSW. AFTER SUNRISE
TOMORROW, SOME GUSTINESS MAY DEVELOP AS A BELT OF ENHANCED FLOW
CROSSES NORTH CAROLINA, BUT ILM AND LBT TERMINALS WILL BE ON
THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THIS BELT. HAVE INCLUDED SOME GUSTS AT
ILM ONLY FOR NOW AFTER 17Z. OVERALL, A QUIET TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR.
MARINE
THROUGH THURSDAY...ELEVATED WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT WILL MAINTAIN SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25-30 KTS, ESPECIALLY IN OUTER
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER, THESE CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS
AND THE FRONT DRAWS NEARER, WITH THE SCA SCHEDULED TO END AT
06Z. A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY WILL BE THE MAIN CHANGE WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WHICH SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF THE NIGHT. SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE DECREASING BEHIND THE FRONT
AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS FURTHER, WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS
EXPECTED DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, SEAS WILL ALSO
COME DOWN TO AROUND 1-2 FT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FAIRLY MODEST WINDS AND SEAS
THURS INTO THE WEEKEND WILL INCREASE WITH APPROACH OF COLD FRONT
SAT INTO SUN. NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE HIGH
THURS NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI WILL BACK AND BECOME MORE WSW TO SW
FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH SPRAWLS OUT TO THE SOUTH OF
THE LOCAL WATERS. LOOKS LIKE WE MAY REACH SCA THRESHOLDS BY
SUNDAY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
254-256.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...RGZ
NEAR TERM...ABW
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...ABW
MARINE...RGZ/ABW
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