310
FXUS62 KILM 130605
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
105 AM EST THU NOV 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
EXPECT UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. A
COUPLE OF FRONTS WILL AFFECT THE AREA EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH ONLY A LIMITED CHANCE OF ANY RAIN, MAINLY ON TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK, DRY COLD FRONT. NOT MUCH OF A
COLD PUSH BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE 5H TROUGH AXIS ALREADY WELL
OFF TO THE EAST AND THE SURFACE AIR MASS COMING DIRECTLY FROM
CANADA. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ADD A BIT OF A DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT TO HELP MORE THAN OFFSET THE SLIGHT COOLING AND HIGHS
WILL END UP A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. MOST AREAS
SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE AIR
MASS REMAINS VERY DRY WITH HUMIDITY DROPPING UNDER 5% AT THE TOP
OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. EXPECT ANOTHER DAY WITH AFTERNOON RH
DROPPING UNDER 30% FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH POTENTIAL FOR 20%
ACROSS INLAND SC. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW 25-30KT OF WIND
AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE
DROPPING CLOSER TO 20KT FOR THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN
CREATE BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS 20-30 MPH DEVELOPING BY MID-
MORNING AND LASTING INTO THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS WILL DECREASE IN
STRENGTH AND FREQUENCY PAST MIDDAY AS THE WINDS ALOFT START TO
WEAKEN.
DEEP DRY AIR KEEPS SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT, BUT THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH WIND TO PREVENT STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. TYPICAL COLD
SPOTS AND SHELTERED AREAS WILL RUN COOLER THAN SURROUNDING AREAS
WITH MOST AREAS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. THE EXPECTED
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OVERNIGHT COULD VERY WELL KEEP LOWS A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY MORNING WILL
DRIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND SOUTH OF THE REGION ON
FRIDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND WEAK COLD TO NEUTRAL ADVECTION
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 60S. A LITTLE COOLER OVER EASTERN NC WHERE
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE STRONGEST.
WINDS INCREASE ON SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN US. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WON'T BE EXTRAORDINARILY
DEEP, BUT STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL ALLOW SURFACE GUSTS TO PEAK
AROUND 20-25 MPH ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
BRING WARM ADVECTION ON SHOULD SEND TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO
THE LOW TO MID 70S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
WARM ADVECTION WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S. AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN METRO WILL STAY NORTH OF THE AREA AND
PROGRESS EASTWARD ONCE OFFSHORE. WITH THE COLD FRONT LACKING
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE MINIMIZED. WEAK COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70 ON MONDAY.
ZONAL FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE LOWER
70S ON TUESDAY. A LIFTING SHORTWAVE WILL DRAG A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE EASTWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN US ON TUESDAY. MOST
ENSEMBLES HOLD ON TO DRY WEATHER DUE TO UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE
ADVECTION, BUT THERE COULD BE A SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN SOME
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN ON
WEDNESDAY WITH HELP FROM A GROWING RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH LATE NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. DRY COLD FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE WILL
LEAD TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT ALL SITES TODAY. ONCE THE WEAK
INVERSION MIXES OUT THIS MORNING ENHANCED WINDS BETWEEN 3K FT
AND 5K FT WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE IN THE FORM OF GUSTS AROUND
25KT. STRONGEST GUSTS WILL OCCUR BEFORE MIDDAY WITH WINDS ALOFT
WEAKENING BY AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME A LITTLE MORE NORTHERLY
TONIGHT WITH SPEEDS DECREASING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK... VFR.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AS CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY IMPROVING ACROSS THE
WATERS. OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
HIGHEST SEAS BEYOND 20 NM AND THE LACK OF COLD ADVECTION COUPLED
WITH WEAKENING GRADIENT IS RESULTING IN WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY
DECREASING. WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE UNDER 15 KT BY DAYBREAK
AND LIKELY UNDER 10 KT BY MIDDAY. WINDS WILL VEER TO A MORE
NORTHERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT, WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
SPEEDS CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. SEAS CURRENTLY 2-4 FT WILL BE 2 FT OR
LESS BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE REST OF
TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WEST-SOUTHWEST WIND WAVE WILL BE DOMINANT
WITH A WEAK SOUTHEAST TO EAST SWELL STILL PRESENT.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
LATE SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS
HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SOUTHWARD AND LOW PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN US. WARM ADVECTION WILL MAKE MIXING MARGINALLY
INEFFICIENT AND GUSTS SHOULD PEAK AROUND 25-30 KNOTS ON SUNDAY.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
WILL LACK THE COLD AIR AND UPPER SUPPORT TO MAINTAIN ANY CHANCE
OF A PROLONGED SCA. CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE AROUND
SUNRISE AS WINDS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...III
MARINE...III/21
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