644
FXUS62 KILM 140258
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
958 PM EST THU NOV 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE A
WARMUP INTO THE WEEKEND. EXPECT WARM AND BREEZY WEATHER OVER
THE WEEKEND. A COUPLE OF FRONTS WILL AFFECT THE AREA EARLY TO
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY A LIMITED CHANCE OF ANY RAIN,
MAINLY ON TUESDAY.
UPDATE
NO BIG CHANGES NECESSARY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THIS
UPDATE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE SOUTHWEST MOVES OVERHEAD FOR TOMORROW. ANOTHER NIGHT OF
COOL TEMPS DUE TO LINGERING CAA, BEFORE IT WEAKENS TOMORROW WITH
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. LOWS FRIDAY MORNING IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S. LINGERING WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL HINDER
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING, BUT COULD SEE TRADITIONAL COLD
SPOTS/SHELTERED AREAS IN THE LOW 30S. SUNNY AND SEASONABLE
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S, WITH MINIMAL WINDS
DUE TO RIDGE OVERHEAD.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
THE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST AND SOUTH FRI NIGHT WITH AN
INCREASING W-SW RETURN FLOW SETTING UP FOR THE WEEKEND. FRIDAY
NIGHT LOWS WILL DROP TO THE LOW TO MID 40S BUT TEMPS WILL
REBOUND INTO THE 70S ON SAT IN A WARM RETURN FLOW. WITH THE
CENTER OF HIGH SPRAWLED SOUTH OF THE AREA, THE WINDS WILL BE W
TO SW THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS. THE 850 TEMPS RISE ABOUT 5 TO 10
DEGREES C AND SHOULD SEE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE, ALTHOUGH
SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FOR LATE SAT AND
AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD. THE GRADIENT FLOW
TIGHTENS AS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PUSHES THIS COLD FRONT
SOUTH REACHING INTO THE CAROLINAS ON SUN AND THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS SUN NIGHT WITH LITTLE FANFARE. THE BEST MID TO UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT REMAINS NORTH SO DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING MORE THAN
CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. OVERALL, A BREEZY AND WARM
WEEKEND AHEAD.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT SHOULD BE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
BY MON MORNING WITH RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR
MONDAY. WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5
TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN DAY BEFORE.
THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT GET MUCH PUSH TO THE SOUTH AS A FAIRLY
ZONAL FLOW WILL EXIST ALOFT. A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK LOW MAY HELP
TO BRING FRONT BACK AS WARM FRONT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING
INTO TUES AND WARMER TEMPS. THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD PASS THROUGH
MAINLY NC WITH BEST CHC OF SHWRS REMAINING NORTH OF AREA ON
TUES. THE SHORTWAVE WILL PASS OFFSHORE BY WED WITH A WEAK FRONT
POSSIBLY DROPPING SOUTH WITH TEMPS DROPPING BACK INTO THE 60S.
ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA WITH INCREASING CLOUDS WED
INTO THURS.
AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONTINUES THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA, WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND JUST A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONTINUING.
MARINE
THROUGH FRIDAY...BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY, WITH RIDGING TO THE WEST MOVING OVERHEAD FOR TOMORROW.
NORTHERLY WINDS 10-15 KTS TONIGHT WILL WEAKEN TO LESS THAN 10
KTS ON FRIDAY, BACKING TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY FRIDAY EVENING. SEAS
1-2 FT THROUGH FRIDAY, COMBINATION OF WEAK SE SWELL AND WIND
CHOP.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FAIRLY MODEST WINDS AND SEAS FRI
NIGHT WILL INCREASE WITH APPROACH OF COLD FRONT SAT INTO SUN.
WINDS WILL BACK AND BECOME MORE WSW TO SW FRI NIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE HIGH SPRAWLS OUT TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
WATERS. LOOKS LIKE THE WINDS MAY KICK UP A BIT EARLIER ON
SATURDAY AND WE SHOULD REACH SCA THRESHOLDS SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
SUBSIDING WINDS AND SEAS AS COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND EAST AND
WEAKER PRESSURE PATTERN SETTLES OVER THE WATERS.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...MAS
NEAR TERM...VAO
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...RGZ/VAO
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