611
FXUS62 KILM 140550
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1250 AM EST FRI NOV 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE WARM AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND. A COUPLE OF FRONTS
WILL AFFECT THE AREA EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY A
LIMITED CHANCE OF ANY RAIN, MAINLY ON TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
BROAD 5H TROUGH AXIS EAST OFF THE EAST COAST WILL LEAD TO DEEP
NORTHWEST FLOW. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE AN ELONGATED RIDGE AXIS
ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY, WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ENDING UP TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. FLOW ALOFT IS NOT
NEARLY AS STRONG AS THE PAST FEW DAYS AND THE GRADIENT IS QUITE
WEAK. WINDS WILL STRUGGLE TO HIT 10 MPH EVEN DURING PEAK
HEATING. THE AIR REMAINS VERY DRY AND HUMIDITY WILL ONCE AGAIN
DROP UNDER 30% IN THE AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR INLAND AREAS
FLIRTING WITH 20%. TEMPERATURES WILL END UP 3-5 DEGREE COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY, MAINLY DUE TO A COOLER START FOR MOST AREAS. AS
OF MIDNIGHT TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ARE
5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE SAME TIME LAST NIGHT. WEAK WARM
ADVECTION DEVELOPS LATE IN THE DAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
SLIPS OFFSHORE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL END UP RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
AFTER SEVERAL NIGHTS OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD ON SATURDAY WITH
A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEASTERN US. THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE ON
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WARM W AND SW FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN FRIDAY. SOME CLOUDS LATE
IN THE DAY WILL BE THE LONE INTERRUPTION IN A DAY FULL OF
SUNSHINE.
MILD OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUD COVER AND BREEZY WINDS JUST ABOVE THE
DECOUPLED SURFACE. SW WINDS WILL ALSO BRING WARM AIR ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER
50S. SUNSHINE RETURNS ON SUNDAY IN AN ONGOING WAA REGIME. VERY
WARM DURING THE AFTERNOON AS HIGHS APPROACH 80 DEGREES.
THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE
SUPPORT ALOFT. MUCH OF THIS ENERGY REMAINS WELL NORTH OF OUR
AREA, SO THE ONLY DISTINGUISHING FEATURES OF THE FRONT WILL BE
A WIND SHIFT AND SOME MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. EXPECT A
BREEZY AND WARM WEEKEND AHEAD.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.
WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK TO
NORMAL.
A DISSIPATING SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE VA
MOUNTAINS LATE TUESDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. WEAK RETURN FLOW EARLIER IN
THE DAY, AHEAD OF THE LOW, AND POOR MOISTURE ALOFT SHOULD KEEP
THE AREA MOSTLY DRY. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
PASSING SHOWERS, PRIMARILY OVER NC. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW BEHIND A WEAK WARM FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL
BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY.
FOLLOWING THE SHORTWAVE AND TRANSIENT LOW, A DEEPER SHORTWAVE
WILL PUSH A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN AND MID-ATLANTIC
STATES ON THURSDAY. RIDGING ALOFT AND POOR COLD ADVECTION BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS;
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONTINUES. CRE WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN VFR AND IFR THIS MORNING
DUE TO ADVECTION OF MIST/FOG OFF THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY.
WILL ADDRESS THIS WITH A TEMPO. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE
NORTH INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY BACKING TO SOUTHWEST
BY EARLY EVENING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK... VFR.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT... NORTHERLY FLOW 5-10 KT TODAY WILL BECOME
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIPS SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE WATERS. GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK WITH SPEEDS UNDER
10 KT THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS WILL BE A MIX OF A
NORTHERLY WIND WAVE AND A SOUTHEAST SWELL WITH A WEAK SOUTHWEST
WIND WAVE DEVELOPING LATE.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... WINDS INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTHWARD AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN US. SCA CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY AS THE GRADIENT COMPRESSES.
WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GRADIENT WINDS OF 20-25 KNOTS SHOULD CREATE
WIND WAVES IN EXCESS OF 6 FEET. POOR MIXING WILL KEEP GUSTS
AROUND 30 KNOTS.
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES OFFSHORE. POOR COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD PREVENT THE SCA
FROM BEING EXTENDED BEYOND THIS POINT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
ANNOUNCE THE ARRIVAL OF HIGH PRESSURE ON MONDAY WITH LIGHT
RETURN FLOW EXPECTED BY TUESDAY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...III
MARINE...III/21
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