476
FXUS62 KILM 142345
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
645 PM EST FRI NOV 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO WARM AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND, THE FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE
SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT
IMPACTS THE AREA, ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT MAY LINGER IN THE AREA BUT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
DOWNSTREAM OF A LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA IS
SUPPORTED BY THE CONVERGENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW EAST OF THIS RIDGE. THE
SURFACE HIGH SHOULD DRIFT SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT TOWARD THE FLORIDA-
GEORGIA STATE LINE BY SUNRISE SATURDAY.
A STRONG RADIATIONAL INVERSION SHOULD DEVELOP THIS EVENING. AS THE
HIGH SINKS SOUTH OVERNIGHT WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE SHOULD
INCREASE AND MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH (30 KNOTS) TO DISTURB THE
INVERSION AFTER MIDNIGHT, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF FLORENCE, DILLON, AND
WHITEVILLE. INLAND LOWS SHOULD REACH 39-43 WITH MID 40S ON THE COAST.
WIND GUSTS OF 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AS VERTICAL MIXING BRINGS
DOWN SOME OF THE HIGHER MOMENTUM DOWN FROM ALOFT. 850 MB TEMPS OF +9
TO +10C TODAY SHOULD WARM TO +12 TO +14C SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
SUPPORTING INLAND HIGHS IN THE MID 70S WITH 69-72 NEAR THE COAST.
CLEAR SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLOUD UP SOME IN THE AFTERNOON AS
PACIFIC JET STREAM MOISTURE INCREASES AT AND ABOVE 400 MB.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH WILL
SANDWICH THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY
SW WINDS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, BECOMING MORE WESTERLY AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED AS WE REMAIN STEEPED IN
DRY AIR AND BETTER FORCING STICKS TO OUR NORTH. SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH CLEAR
SKIES RETURNING FOR MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER AS HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO MOVE IN, AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE KNOCKED DOWN BELOW
NORMAL MONDAY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S SATURDAY NIGHT AND NEAR 40 SUNDAY
NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S SUNDAY AND LOWER TO MID 60S
MONDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
DRY CONDITIONS WILL HOLD UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT WHERE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES, POSSIBLY STALLING IN THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. THIS FEATURE COULD BRING US SOME ISOLATED LIGHT RAINFALL
AS WE GET ANOTHER PUSH OF MOISTURE FROM AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH,
FROM THE W/SW. PREDOMINANTLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO JUST ABOVE
NORMAL.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME GUSTY
WINDS COULD DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR.
MARINE
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTH
CAROLINA WILL SINK SOUTH TO NEAR THE FLORIDA-GEORGIA STATE LINE
SATURDAY MORNING, THEN DOWN TO CENTRAL FLORIDA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN WINDS
ACROSS THE CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
BLOWING THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY
SUNSET AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS
SHOULD TURN SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT, INCREASING TO 15 KNOTS
SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN TO 15-20 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
ASIDE FROM A VERY SMALL 8-SECOND SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL, SEAS SHOULD
CONSIST ALMOST ENTIRELY OF LOCAL WIND WAVES. COMBINED SEAS OF 1-2
FEET TONIGHT SHOULD BUILD TOWARD 3 FEET SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH WILL SANDWICH THE COASTAL WATERS CAUSING
AN INCREASED PG AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN WORSENING
MARINE CONDITIONS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS THE FRONT STARTS TO
MOVE THROUGH, PUSHING OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. SW TO W WINDS WILL
GUST +25 KTS WITH SEAS RISING TO 5-7 FT. BEHIND THE FRONT, LIGHTER N
TO NW WINDS WILL BUILD IN FOR MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD
WILL LEAD TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS INTO TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH, POSSIBLY STALLING IN THE AREA. WIND
DIRECTION WILL BE HARD TO NAIL AT THIS TIME BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
~10-15 KTS COME MID WEEK. SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH INTO MONDAY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
AMZ250-252-254-256.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...III/LEW
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