566
FXUS62 KILM 151819
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
119 PM EST SAT NOV 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT,
BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY. RETURN FLOW BRINGS
WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK, WITH A SMALL
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY BUT MOISTURE
WITH THE FRONT WILL BE LIMITED AND RAINFALL IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH
THE FRONT. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP THOUGH. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
FALL TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
LIGHTER WINDS AND COLDER TEMPS, MONDAY HIGHS AND LOWS BEING BELOW
NORMAL. THE HIGH WILL START TO SLIDE OFF TO OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE SW, TEMPERATURES RETURNING
TO NEAR NORMAL AS WE BEGIN TO WARM UP IN THE RETURN FLOW OF THE
DEPARTING HIGH.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE NEXT CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL BE INTO THE WEEKEND AS A WARM
FRONT IS DRAGGED TO OUR NORTH AND WE ENTER THE WARM SECTOR OF A
MIDWESTERN LOW. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE SUPPORT ALOFT AS ASIDE
FROM THE WARM FRONT MOST LIFT STAYS TO OUR NORTH.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP AFTER 23Z THIS
EVENING AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET ORGANIZES OVERHEAD. WINDS AT 2000
FEET AGL COULD INCREASE TO 40-45 KNOTS. AFTER SUNRISE, WIND GUSTS OF
20 TO 25 KT OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE AS DAYTIME MIXING DISTRIBUTES
THAT MOMENTUM THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK... VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
MARINE
THROUGH SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
OF 15 TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT OVERNIGHT
AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING A LITTLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BUILD TO 5 TO 7 FT
OVERNIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE SUNDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WE'LL GET A BIT OF A N/NE SURGE
BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH WINDS
INCREASING TO ~20 KTS. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL IN THE AREA WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD, N WINDS BECOMING LIGHTER. THE HIGH
WILL PUSH OFF TO OUR N/NE WITH S/SW WINDS BUILDING IN AGAIN BUT ~10
KTS. SEAS WILL BE ~1-3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...31
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...31
MARINE...LEW/31
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