265
FXUS62 KILM 160223
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
923 PM EST SAT NOV 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT, BRINGING
COOLER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY. RETURN FLOW BRINGS WARMER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK, WITH A SMALL CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS NEXT WEEKEND.
UPDATE
NO BIG CHANGES NECESSARY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THIS
UPDATE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY BUT MOISTURE
WITH THE FRONT WILL BE LIMITED AND RAINFALL IS NOT ANTICIPATED
WITH THE FRONT. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP THOUGH. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL FALL TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH HIGHS SUNDAY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
LIGHTER WINDS AND COLDER TEMPS, MONDAY HIGHS AND LOWS BEING
BELOW NORMAL. THE HIGH WILL START TO SLIDE OFF TO OUR
NORTH/NORTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE SW,
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL AS WE BEGIN TO WARM UP IN
THE RETURN FLOW OF THE DEPARTING HIGH.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE NEXT CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL BE INTO THE WEEKEND
AS A WARM FRONT IS DRAGGED TO OUR NORTH AND WE ENTER THE WARM
SECTOR OF A MIDWESTERN LOW. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE SUPPORT
ALOFT AS ASIDE FROM THE WARM FRONT MOST LIFT STAYS TO OUR NORTH.
AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONTINUES THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. MAIN ITEM OF NOTE IS
HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR STARTING OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AS A LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS, CONTINUING UNTIL MID-
MORNING SUNDAY. OTHERWISE, SW TO W WINDS AT THE SFC GUSTING UP
20-25 KT AT TIMES THROUGH SUNDAY AFTN AND A FEW MID/HIGH
CLOUDS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONTINUES.
MARINE
THROUGH SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF
15 TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT
OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING A LITTLE
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BUILD TO
5 TO 7 FT OVERNIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE SUNDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WE'LL GET A BIT OF A N/NE SURGE
BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH
WINDS INCREASING TO ~20 KTS. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL IN THE
AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD, N WINDS BECOMING
LIGHTER. THE HIGH WILL PUSH OFF TO OUR N/NE WITH S/SW WINDS
BUILDING IN AGAIN BUT ~10 KTS. SEAS WILL BE ~1-3 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...MAS
NEAR TERM...31
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...LEW/31
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