835
FXUS62 KILM 160558
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1258 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY. RETURN FLOW BRINGS WARMER TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK, WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A COMPRESSED
GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH AND LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN US WILL PROMOTE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING THIS
AFTERNOON. PEAK GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 25-30 MPH ARE EXPECTED
PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL PUSH
AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80S NEAR THE COAST.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TODAY WITH SUCH DRY AIR IN PLACE. A FEW
PASSING MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ANNOUNCE THE ARRIVAL OF A FRONT THIS
EVENING.
DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD EFFECTIVELY MIX MINIMUM
RHS INTO THE 30%S AND 40%S THIS AFTERNOON. DRY AIR ADVECTION DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH MIN RH INTO THE 20S NEAR
THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT, NEAR SUNSET, MAY
KEEP AREAS NEAR THE COAST FROM MIXING TO SUCH EXTREMELY LOW RHS.
HOWEVER, GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON, LOW MINIMUM RHS, AND DRY FUELS
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NC HAVE PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF AN SPS FOR
INCREASED FIRE DANGER THROUGH 6 PM.
WINDS WEAKEN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES, WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION, AND A DRY AIR MASS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES COOL QUITE
NICELY AFTER A WARM DAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S ACROSS
THE REGION ON MONDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH
THE PERIOD REMAINING MOISTURE CHALLENGED FOR OUR AREA. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY WITH NO
POPS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S MONDAY AND
PERHAPS REACH 70 ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE
30S TUESDAY AND SOMEWHAT WARMER WEDNESDAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
IS IN PLACE WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
LITTLE TO NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS MORNING AS
MID LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS THE MAIN FEATURE BUILDING N FROM MID
TO LATE WEEK. A SYSTEM EMANATING FROM THE WEST COAST TROUGHING
MAKES A RUN EAST TOWARD THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND AND LOWER POPS
REMAIN IN PLACE. THE RIDGE IS FORMIDABLE HOWEVER AND CONFIDENCE
IS ON THE LOWER SIDE. OVERALL TEMPERATURES ARE ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF CLIMATOLOGY PERHAPS COOLING DOWN VERY LATE.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS MORNING. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL CONTINUE
TO BE LLWS THROUGH SUNRISE. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 2K FEET
AGL WILL PRODUCE SHEAR UNTIL LOW LEVEL MIXING DEEPENS AFTER 12Z
SUNDAY. OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE COAST HAVE INDICATED THAT MIXING IS A
LITTLE DEEPER THAN PREVIOUS EXPECTED, SO SHEAR MAY BE INTERMITTENT AT
COASTAL TERMINALS WHERE A FEW GUSTS MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONTINUES.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE ONGOING
EARLY THIS MORNING AND THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
SOUTH AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN US WILL COMPRESS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER OUR REGION IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. GUSTS
PEAKING AROUND 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. WINDS TURNING NORTHWESTERLY WILL
THEN WEAKEN THROUGH THE EVENING. SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD COME TO AN
END AFTER SUNSET AS WIND-DRIVEN 5-7 FOOT SEAS FALL BELOW 6 FEET THIS
EVENING. WINDS GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AND BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FOR MONDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
WINDS WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHERLY COMPONENT EARLY IN THE
PERIOD BUT OVERALL A RETURN FLOW AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
MORE PREVALENT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 10-15 KNOTS EARLY ON BUT TREND
DOWN A LITTLE IN TIME. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET BUT MORE
TOWARD THE LOWER END OF THE RANGE WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
252-254-256.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...21
MARINE...SHK/21
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