051
FXUS62 KILM 161841
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
141 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING
COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY. RETURN FLOW BRINGS WARMER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK, WITH A SMALL CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BRINGING BREEZY CONDITIONS BUT NO RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL TO THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER NUMBERS NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN TODAY, REACHING THE LOW TO MID
60S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MOSTLY DRY WITH WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
MONDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT OVERNIGHT, LOWS IN THE MID 30S
AND POSSIBLY A BIT COLDER IF OVERNIGHT CIRRUS ISN'T VERY THICK. THE
HIGH WILL START TO MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY AHEAD
OF A SHORTWAVE, WINDS BECOMING MORE SW AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO
NEAR NORMAL AS WE BEGIN TO WARM UP IN THE RETURN FLOW. ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE THE BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WON'T SEE ANY APPRECIABLE
RAINFALL AS BETTER FORCING REMAINS TO OUR NORTH. WEDNESDAY SHOULD
SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH HIGHS GETTING BACK INTO THE 70S.
CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE INTO MIDWEEK AS WE GET INTO THIS WARMER
AIRMASS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS. RAINFALL CHANCES WILL INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND AS A
WARM FRONT IS DRAGGED TO OUR NORTH AND SMALL PULSES OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVE THROUGH ALOFT WITH A POSSIBLE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS IS LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WEST WINDS
OF 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KT WILL BECOME N TO NW BY 03Z AND
DECREASE TO 5 TO 10 KT. THESE SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK... VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
MARINE
THROUGH MONDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS UP FOR WEST WINDS OF
15 TO 25 KT AND SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY, WINDS WILL BECOME N TO NW AND
DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT AS SEAS SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 3 FT.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL LEAD TO
LIGHT N WINDS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD BEFORE THE HIGH MOVES OFF
TO THE N/NE THROUGH TUESDAY. S/SW WINDS WILL BUILD IN ~10-15 KTS
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE WORK WEEK. WINDS WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN
SPEED FRIDAY AS THE PG INCREASES BUT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SEAS WILL BE ~1-3 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
252-254-256.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...31
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...31
MARINE...LEW/31
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