451
FXUS62 KILM 162356
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
656 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING
COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY. RETURN FLOW BRINGS WARMER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK, WITH A SMALL CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS NEXT WEEKEND.
UPDATE
FORECAST UPDATED TO END THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS MARINE
CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING. OTHERWISE, NO BIG CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING BRINGING
BREEZY CONDITIONS BUT NO RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL TO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER NUMBERS NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN TODAY, REACHING THE LOW
TO MID 60S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MOSTLY DRY WITH WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT OVERNIGHT, LOWS IN
THE MID 30S AND POSSIBLY A BIT COLDER IF OVERNIGHT CIRRUS ISN'T
VERY THICK. THE HIGH WILL START TO MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST
THROUGH TUESDAY AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE, WINDS BECOMING MORE SW AND
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL AS WE BEGIN TO WARM UP IN
THE RETURN FLOW. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE THE BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA WON'T SEE ANY APPRECIABLE RAINFALL AS BETTER FORCING
REMAINS TO OUR NORTH. WEDNESDAY SHOULD SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
WITH HIGHS GETTING BACK INTO THE 70S. CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE
INTO MIDWEEK AS WE GET INTO THIS WARMER AIRMASS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS. RAINFALL CHANCES WILL INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND AS
A WARM FRONT IS DRAGGED TO OUR NORTH AND SMALL PULSES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVE THROUGH ALOFT WITH A POSSIBLE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS IS LOW CONFIDENCE AT
THIS TIME.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONTINUES THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. A COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION, BUT PROVIDING MORE OF A
SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION THAN A BUMP UP IN SPEED. WINDS UP TO 5-8
KT TONIGHT, WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE INTO THE DAY MONDAY AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
MARINE
THROUGH MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS HAVE ENDED,
WITH WINDS BECOMING N TO NW AND DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KT AS
SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 3 FT MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL LEAD
TO LIGHT N WINDS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD BEFORE THE HIGH
MOVES OFF TO THE N/NE THROUGH TUESDAY. S/SW WINDS WILL BUILD IN
~10-15 KTS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE WORK WEEK. WINDS WILL SEE
AN INCREASE IN SPEED FRIDAY AS THE PG INCREASES BUT SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SEAS WILL BE ~1-3 FT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...MAS
NEAR TERM...31
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...LEW/31
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