260
FXUS62 KILM 170545
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1245 AM EST MON NOV 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND WILL BE QUICKLY
REPLACED WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN LIKELY WON'T ARRIVE UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND,
BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH AT THIS TIME.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST, RUNNING ROUGHLY FROM
OHIO TO THE RED RIVER. IT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LITTLE
MORE THAN A WINDSHIFT DUE TO ITS WEAK LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND
NO SUPPORT FOR LIFT ALOFT IN ZONAL FLOW. IT'S WEAK BAROCLINICITY
WILL BE EVIDENT BY TOMORROW'S HIGHS GENERALLY ONLY BEING ABOUT
2 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY'S.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. LOW PRESSURE TRAILING THE SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SOME
WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY EVENING. THIS IS
LIKELY TO BE INSUFFICIENT FOR RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER OF OUR FORECAST AREA, BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE PRESENT
AS FAR SOUTH AS NC-24 IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN NC.
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL ACCOMPANY WEAK RIDGING OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN US ON WEDNESDAY. SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND
WESTERLIES ABOVE WILL PROVIDE A CONSISTENT SOURCE OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD WARM QUITE NICELY WITH MID AND
UPPER 70S LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION. REMAINING MILD OVERNIGHT
(DESPITE THE DRY AIR MASS AND GOOD COOLING POTENTIAL) WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
DRY AND WARM WEATHER CONTINUES LATE THIS WEEK PRIMARILY DUE TO
A MID LEVEL RIDGE JUST TO OUR SOUTH. A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL US WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND AND WILL
BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH WITH
REGARDS TO THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THIS LOW. CLUSTER ANALYSES
HIGHLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE AS THE MAIN
CULPRIT OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. FOR NOW, THE LOW
END RAIN CHANCES APPEAR PLAUSIBLE AS THERE COULD ALSO BE A
CHANCE OF LOCALIZED SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR THIS CYCLE WITH CLEAR SKIES. THE ONLY FM
GROUPS WILL BE TO ADDRESS WIND DIRECTION CHANGES AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH TONIGHT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.... VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. BRIEF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY,
SATURDAY, AND SUNDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH THURSDAY... PREFRONTAL SWRLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. TONIGHT AS
THE BOUNDARY DRAWS CLOSER THE WIND WILL VEER TO THE W WHILE
INCREASING IN SPEED AS ITS APPROACH TIGHTENS THE GRADIENT. A FEW
GUSTS TO 25KT APPEAR POSSIBLE BUT HOLDING OFF ON ADVISORY WHILE
THE VEERING GETS MORE AGGRESSIVE, EVENTUALLY WINDING UP NE BY
THURSDAY. THE WIND WAVES SHOULD STEEPEN WITH THE 180 DEGREE
SHIFT AND A SMALL SE SWELL WILL CONTINUE.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... PRESSURE PATTERNS WILL BE GENERALLY
WEAK OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TURN
SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO OUR
NORTH. WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO OUR SOUTHEAST. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ON THURSDAY
WILL GIVE WAY TO SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A
DEVELOP LOW OVER THE CENTRAL US. ONSHORE FLOW ON FRIDAY MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ENHANCED SEA BREEZE WITH
PERIODIC GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEAS GENERALLY 1-2 FEET.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...MBB
MARINE...MBB/21
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