145
FXUS62 KILM 171113
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
615 AM EST MON NOV 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND WILL BE QUICKLY
REPLACED WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN LIKELY WON'T ARRIVE UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND,
BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH AT THIS TIME.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY FOR ALL BUT THE VERY END OF
THE PERIOD, POSSIBLY TERMINATING AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY. THIS
WILL BRING SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE DROPPING TODAY IN
DEEP LAYER NW FLOW, PW VALUES DROPPING TO 0.3 INCHES OR LOWER.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT, CENTERED TO OUR NORTH BUT WITH
A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE REGION. RADIATIONAL COOLING IS
EXPECTED, THOUGH HOW IDEALIZED IS UP FOR QUESTIONING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A SURFACE-BASED INVERSION BUT IT'S STRENGTH IS
SEEMINGLY TEMPERED, POSSIBLY BY A LITTLE BIT OF CIRRUS LEVEL
MOISTURE AS VERY BROAD UPPER JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GULF
STATES. DID GO A BIT BELOW GUIDANCE BUT NOT AS MUCH AS IF
IDEALIZED COOLING WAS EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. LOW PRESSURE TRAILING THE SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SOME
WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY EVENING. THIS IS
LIKELY TO BE INSUFFICIENT FOR RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER OF OUR FORECAST AREA, BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE PRESENT
AS FAR SOUTH AS NC-24 IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN NC.
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL ACCOMPANY WEAK RIDGING OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN US ON WEDNESDAY. SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND
WESTERLIES ABOVE WILL PROVIDE A CONSISTENT SOURCE OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD WARM QUITE NICELY WITH MID AND
UPPER 70S LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION. REMAINING MILD OVERNIGHT
(DESPITE THE DRY AIR MASS AND GOOD COOLING POTENTIAL) WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
DRY AND WARM WEATHER CONTINUES LATE THIS WEEK PRIMARILY DUE TO
A MID LEVEL RIDGE JUST TO OUR SOUTH. A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL US WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND AND WILL
BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH WITH
REGARDS TO THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THIS LOW. CLUSTER ANALYSES
HIGHLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE AS THE MAIN
CULPRIT OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. FOR NOW, THE LOW
END RAIN CHANCES APPEAR PLAUSIBLE AS THERE COULD ALSO BE A
CHANCE OF LOCALIZED SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NW WINDS THAT WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES BY JUST NORTH OF THE
REGION.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK....VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT... WINDS WILL BE NW TODAY FOLLOWING LAST
EVENING FRONTAL PASSAGE. AND ALTHOUGH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL DEVELOP FOR SOME GUSTINESS THE OVERALL BOUNDARY LAYER
WIND FIELDS WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY HEADLINES. AS
THE HIGH'S CENTER MOVES JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT WINDS
DECREASE DRAMATICALLY. SPECTRAL PLOTS SHOW NO SIGNIFICANT SWELL
ENERGY WITH ALL WAVE PERIODS SUB-7 SECONDS.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... PRESSURE PATTERNS WILL BE GENERALLY
WEAK OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TURN
SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO OUR
NORTH. WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO OUR SOUTHEAST. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ON THURSDAY
WILL GIVE WAY TO SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A
DEVELOP LOW OVER THE CENTRAL US. ONSHORE FLOW ON FRIDAY MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ENHANCED SEA BREEZE WITH
PERIODIC GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEAS GENERALLY 1-2 FEET.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...MBB
MARINE...MBB/21
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