211
FXUS62 KILM 171747
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1247 PM EST MON NOV 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO WARMING TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
LIKELY WON'T ARRIVE UNTIL THIS WEEKEND WITH AN APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES/HIGHLIGHTS:
*HAZARDS: NONE
*RAIN CHANCES: NONE
*TEMPS: BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT; NEAR NORMAL TUE
*CONFIDENCE: HIGH, EXCEPT MOD TO HIGH REGARDING TEMPS TONIGHT
DETAILS: HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTHWEST WILL SHIFT EAST AND
BECOME SITUATED MORE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT BEFORE CONTINUING TO MOVE
OFFSHORE TOMORROW. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT
BUT OTHERWISE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE PRETTY GOOD FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING SO WE LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE, ESPECIALLY GIVEN
WHAT HAPPENED LAST NIGHT. OTHERWISE, BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TONIGHT IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S MOST LOCALES AWAY FROM THE WARMER COASTAL AREAS
AND PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL HIGHS ON TUE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE/WEAK COLD
FRONT, SW WINDS BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH
SOMETIME THURSDAY BUT LITTLE CHANGE OUTSIDE OF LIGHTER WINDS. HIGHS
IN THE 70S LOWS NEAR 50, WARMER AT THE COAST.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AN APPROACHING LOW FROM WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND RAIN
CHANCES INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO
LOWER TEMPERATURES BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME SATURDAY WITH DRYING TOWARDS THE END OF
THE PERIOD BEHIND IT.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 18Z/17 TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR PREVAILING, ALTHOUGH THERE
IS A VERY LOW RISK FOR MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS WED NIGHT INTO
THU MORNING BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT.
MARINE
THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE
CONCERNS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
PUSHING OFFSHORE TOMORROW ALLOWING NORTHERLY WINDS TO SHIFT
ONSHORE WITH SEAS FALLING TO 1 FT OR LESS.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE
NORTH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH SW WINDS ~10 KTS OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY, THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD IN AGAIN BEFORE IT'S SANDWICHED BETWEEN INCOMING LOW
PRESSURE, THE INCREASED PG BRINGING SW WINDS ~15-20 KTS. SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SEAS WILL BE ~1-3 FT WITH
SOME 4 FOOTERS POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...RJB/LEW
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