051
FXUS62 KILM 181118
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
615 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO WARMING TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
LIKELY WON'T ARRIVE UNTIL THIS WEEKEND WITH AN APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH WILL BE PROGRESSING EASTWARD
MOVING OFF THE COAST. AN INCONSEQUENTIAL SURFACE TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP ON ITS SWRN PERIPHERY BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE. THE MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE DUE WESTERLY AROUND THE BOTTOM
OF A LOW MOVING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY JUST SOUTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES. THE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT OF THE BL WINDS WILL BRING
SEASONABLE HIGHS TODAY, PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER. AS WE
LARGELY DO NOT DECOUPLE TONIGHT LOWS COULD BE AS MILD AS 10
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. EXPECT PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES LOCALLY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
70S. MOISTURE ADVECTION PRIOR TO WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE BROUGHT DEW
POINTS BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S, EVEN AS DRY AIR
MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COOL
OVERNIGHT, BUT NOT AS MUCH AS PREVIOUS DAYS; EXPECT OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S OR UPPER 40S.
ZONAL FLOW MAINTAINS A PERSISTENT PATTERN FOR THURSDAY, THE
ONLY CHANGE BEING A LITTLE LESS CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S. A LITTLE
COOLER AT THE COAST DUE TO WEAK SYNOPTIC FLOW YIELDING TO AN
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
AND UPPER 50S ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND COULD ALSO ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME FOG ON FRIDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
WARM WEATHER CONTINUES ON FRIDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOW
SAGGING TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST, SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY DRIVE TEMPERATURES INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. WEAK ENERGY ALOFT OVER NC AND SOUTHERN
VA WILL PRODUCE SOME CLOUD COVER FOR THE AFTERNOON.
ENSEMBLES STILL HIGHLIGHT UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING A WEAKENING
SHORTWAVE ON SATURDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD
INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON SATURDAY MORNING. AN INCREASE
IN PRECIPITABLE WATER LATE NEXT WEEK COULD SET THE STAGE FOR
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS
EASTWARD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY, WELCOMING ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN US. AGAIN, FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ZONAL, SO A
SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION IS UNLIKELY. EXPECT DRY
WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES TO BE A LITTLE CLOSER TO NORMAL SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER VA WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
SOUTH INTO THE REGION. THIS AIRMASS WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TODAY.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE COAST, POSSIBLY
REMAINING LIGHT AND VARIABLE INLAND.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR PREVAILING. THERE IS
A SMALL CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY MORNING.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE WILL LEAD TO A
SE WIND, WITH SUBTLE TROUGH NOTED ALONG THE COAST. NO LONG
FETCH SWELL ENERGY EXPECTED ANYWHERE ALONG THE EAST COAST
MEANING ONLY THE WIND WAVES WILL BE PRESENT, AND GENERALLY AT
MINIMAL VALUES.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... SOUTHWEST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT STALLS JUST
NORTH OF THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT AND ATTENDANT LOW SHIFT EAST
ON THURSDAY. TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS EAST OF THE AREA
INTO FRIDAY MORNING, KEEPING WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE. ON
FRIDAY, HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE. LOCALLY ENHANCED GUSTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG A SEA BREEZE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SEAS GENERALLY
1-2 FEET, INCREASING TO 2-3 FEET NEXT WEEKEND IN ENHANCED
SOUTHERLY FLOW.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...MBB
MARINE...MBB/21
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