044
FXUS62 KILM 181821
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
121 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO WARMING TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
LIKELY WON'T ARRIVE UNTIL THIS WEEKEND WITH AN APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY BUT WILL
BRING LITTLE OTHER THAN CLOUDS TO THE AREA. RETURN FLOW SHOULD
ALLOW FOR HIGHER MINS TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S WITH LOWER 50S NEARER THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
H5 RIDGING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WITH ZONAL FLOW TO THE NORTH
WILL KEEP THINGS DRY IN THE SHORT TERM FOR THIS PART OF THE
CAROLINAS. A WEAK FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE THIS PERIOD WITH A
WEAK PERTURBATION POSSIBLY DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
AREAS. LOW TEMPERATURES WED NIGHT AND THU NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN LACK OF ANY COLD AIR ADVECTION. HIGHS
DURING THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE JUST ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
RETURN FLOW WILL COMMENCE DURING FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT SLATED FOR THE WEEKEND. ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES DO NOT
SUGGEST MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY QPF AT THIS TIME AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. STILL EXPECT SOME INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
CONVECTIVE WEATHER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ZONAL H5 FLOW
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY WILL KEEP THINGS DRY AFTERWARDS,
WITH ATTENTION SHIFT TO POTENTIAL UPPER LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. FOR THE MOST PART,
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT S TO
SE WINDS WILL BECOME S-SW BY DAYBREAK WED AND MAY INCREASE TO 10 KT
OR GREATER BY THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR PREVAILING. THERE IS
A SMALL CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
MORNING AND AGAIN SATURDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LIGHT E-SE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL VEER
TO SW AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT BY WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL RUN 2
FT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE WEAK FRONT WILL LIKELY BE
SOUTH OF THE WATERS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, POSSIBLY STALLING NEAR
THE SOUTHERN WATERS. NELY WINDS WILL EXIST NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY, AND CONDITIONS WILL BE LIGHT/VRBL NEAR IT. THE
BOUNDARY MAY BE ABLE TO PUSH FARTHER SOUTH ASSUMING A WEAK
PERTURBATION DOESN'T FORM ALONG IT. DURING FRIDAY SWLY FLOW WILL
RETURN AS THE OLD FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE DURING SATURDAY WITH SOME PROBABILITY OF
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.
THIS FRONT WILL TURN WINDS OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY THEN THEY WILL
QUICKLY VEER TO A NELY DIRECTION SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BE 3 FT OR
LESS UNTIL SATURDAY WHEN THE GRADIENT FLOW IS AT ITS GREATEST.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...SRP
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...21
MARINE...21/SRP
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