751
FXUS62 KILM 190054 AAA
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
754 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO WARMING TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
LIKELY WON'T ARRIVE UNTIL THIS WEEKEND WITH AN APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE.
UPDATE
I'VE ISSUED A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO LOWER FORECAST
LOW TEMPERATURES BY SEVERAL DEGREES NEAR THE COAST WHERE CALM
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALLOWED AN IMPRESSIVE
RADIATIONAL INVERSION TO DEVELOP. VEERING WINDS AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT MAY CAUSE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES TO FLATLINE OR EVEN RISE BEFORE SUNRISE ACROSS THE
COASTAL COUNTIES. I'VE ALSO ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG MAINLY ACROSS
EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA FOR PARTS OF HORRY AND GEORGETOWN
COUNTIES WHERE SHALLOW MOISTURE ADVECTED ONSHORE WITH TODAY'S
SEABREEZE COULD RESULT IN SOME LOWERED VISIBILITY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY BUT WILL
BRING LITTLE OTHER THAN CLOUDS TO THE AREA. RETURN FLOW SHOULD
ALLOW FOR HIGHER MINS TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S WITH LOWER 50S NEARER THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
H5 RIDGING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WITH ZONAL FLOW TO THE NORTH
WILL KEEP THINGS DRY IN THE SHORT TERM FOR THIS PART OF THE
CAROLINAS. A WEAK FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE THIS PERIOD WITH A
WEAK PERTURBATION POSSIBLY DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
AREAS. LOW TEMPERATURES WED NIGHT AND THU NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN LACK OF ANY COLD AIR ADVECTION. HIGHS
DURING THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE JUST ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
RETURN FLOW WILL COMMENCE DURING FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT SLATED FOR THE WEEKEND. ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES DO NOT
SUGGEST MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY QPF AT THIS TIME AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. STILL EXPECT SOME INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
CONVECTIVE WEATHER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ZONAL H5 FLOW
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY WILL KEEP THINGS DRY AFTERWARDS,
WITH ATTENTION SHIFT TO POTENTIAL UPPER LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. FOR THE MOST PART,
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVER THE COMING 24 HOURS. THERE IS
A LOW POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VISIBILITY IN GROUND FOG TO AFFECT THE
KCRE AIRPORT TONIGHT BUT THE BULK OF NEAR-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
DOES NOT SHOW ANY ISSUES. WIND DIRECTIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY VEER
CLOCKWISE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A DRY COLD FRONT DIPS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY IN GROUND FOG THURSDAY MORNING,
GROWING TO A MODERATE CHANCE ON FRIDAY MORNING. A LOW CHANCE OF
SPOTTY VISIBILITY ISSUES WILL REDEVELOP AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING.
MARINE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LIGHT E-SE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL VEER
TO SW AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT BY WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL RUN 2
FT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE WEAK FRONT WILL LIKELY BE
SOUTH OF THE WATERS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, POSSIBLY STALLING NEAR
THE SOUTHERN WATERS. NELY WINDS WILL EXIST NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY, AND CONDITIONS WILL BE LIGHT/VRBL NEAR IT. THE
BOUNDARY MAY BE ABLE TO PUSH FARTHER SOUTH ASSUMING A WEAK
PERTURBATION DOESN'T FORM ALONG IT. DURING FRIDAY SWLY FLOW WILL
RETURN AS THE OLD FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE DURING SATURDAY WITH SOME PROBABILITY OF
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.
THIS FRONT WILL TURN WINDS OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY THEN THEY WILL
QUICKLY VEER TO A NELY DIRECTION SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BE 3 FT OR
LESS UNTIL SATURDAY WHEN THE GRADIENT FLOW IS AT ITS GREATEST.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...
NEAR TERM...SRP
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...21/SRP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page