050
FXUS62 KILM 191115
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
613 AM EST WED NOV 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO WARMING TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
LIKELY WON'T ARRIVE UNTIL THIS WEEKEND WITH AN APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A RELATIVELY COMPACT UPPER LOW WILL PASS BY WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA EARLY TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH A SURFACE COLD FRONT
TOWARDS THE REGION. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY ACCORDING TO MODEL
GUIDANCE WE ARE TO GET A SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURES BOOST IN THE
PRE-FRONTAL SW FLOW REGIME EVEN AS MID CLOUD COVER TRENDS
UPWARDS SLIGHTLY AS THERE IS A PLETHORA OF TRAILING VORACITY
LOBES THIS FAR SOUTH, WELL REMOVED FROM THE MAIN UPPER LOW
CROSSING PA. ASSUMING THAT THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE IS
CORRECT LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. WHAT LITTLE
ASCENT IS PROVIDED BY THESE WEAK RIPPLES OF PVA ARE SEEMINGLY
OUT OF PHASE ENOUGH FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT DRYING ABOVE 700MB
AFTER 21Z TO PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION, THE
MOISTURE INSTEAD BEING CONFINED WELL TO OUR NORTH. THE FRONT
WILL WAFFLE AROUND JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT BUT WNW FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP MID LEVELS DRY ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
ANY PRECIPITATION. EVEN THE 50-ISH CLOUD COVER IN GUIDANCE MAY
BE OVERDONE.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ZONAL FLOW MAINTAINS WARM AND DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE AREA
ON THURSDAY. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH
EASTERN NC, BUT SHOULD STALL ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL TRENDS HAVE
THIS FRONT DIPPING A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WITH EACH NEW RUN.
HOWEVER, ENSEMBLES ARE STILL QUITE NOISY REGARDING THE POSITION
OF THIS FRONT AND RESULTING TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THE TIGHT
GRADIENT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES NORTH TO SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY,
THE CAPE FEAR REGION STILL HAS A CHANCE AT SEEING LOWER 60S ON
THURSDAY AS OPPOSED TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S THAT ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST.
THE STALLED FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY AS SOUTHERLY
FLOW BECOMES REESTABLISHED. AREAS SOUTH OF THE FRONT MAY SEE
SOME PATCHY FOG ON FRIDAY MORNING. BETTER CONFIDENCE FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY: MID AND UPPER 70S EXPECT, WITH A FEW
AREAS APPROACHING 80 IN NORTHEASTERN SC. MOISTURE RETURN WILL
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS MILD; UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHORTWAVE MOVING WEST TO EAST OVER SOUTHERN VA WILL BE
WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHEASTERN NC AND SOUTHEASTERN
VA COAST ON SATURDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A
BROAD SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT ON SATURDAY,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING. ENSEMBLES PROBABILITIES INDICATE
THAT QPF WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDRETHS. WHILE SOME
INSTABILITY DOES EXIST, DRY AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL BE
GRADUALLY REDUCING THIS POTENTIAL AFTER MIDDAY (ENOUGH TO BE
TEMPTED BY THE REMOVAL OF THUNDER CHANCES COMPLETELY).
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
BRING A BETTER PUNCH OF COOLER AIR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER ON SUNDAY. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL US WILL INTRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY
FOR NEXT WEEK. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRIES FAVORS A LOW FARTHER
TO THE EAST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE WARMER
TEMPERATURES, BUT ALL SOLUTIONS TO THIS POINT HAVE BEEN
INCONSISTENT.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR GENERALLY EXPECTED. SW WINDS TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT BUT
SPEEDS CAPPED AT 10KT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT AS THE
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH GRADUALLY TAKING ON A NE DIRECTION WITH
SPEEDS STILL CAPPED AT 10 KT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK... THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY IN GROUND FOG THURSDAY MORNING,
GROWING TO A MODERATE CHANCE ON FRIDAY MORNING. A LOW CHANCE OF
SPOTTY VISIBILITY ISSUES WILL REDEVELOP AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT... A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW
TODAY, BEING DRIVEN BY AN UPPER WAVE THAT PASSES BY WELL TO OUR
NORTH. AS SUCH DYNAMICAL FORCING WITH THE BOUNDARY WILL BE
MINIMAL (AS WILL IT'S INNATE BAROCLINICITY) FOR LITTLE FANFARE
ASSOCIATED WITH IS PASSAGE OTHER THAN VEERING WIND BEGINNING
LATE THIS EVENING. IN FACT BY THE PERIOD'S END EXPECT A FULL 180
DEGREE CHANGE TO NE. WIND WAVES REMAIN CAPPED AT 2 FT, THOUGH
THE EXCESSIVE VEERING WILL STEEPEN THE DIMINUTIVE WAVE FACES.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATER IN THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTHEAST MOVES OFFSHORE AND MODIFIES. RETURN FLOW ON FRIDAY
BRINGS WARM WEATHER AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH
SATURDAY. WARM ADVECTION PEAKS ON SATURDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20
KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME PATCHY SEA FOG MAY EXIST BOTH
DAYS WITH INCREASING WINDS LOWERING THE POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. NORTHERLY
WINDS DEVELOP ON SUNDAY, BUT POOR COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP
WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...MBB
MARINE...MBB/21
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