962
FXUS62 KILM 192334
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
634 PM EST WED NOV 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING
BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY. A WARM UP WILL FOLLOW
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER HIGH PRESSURE
AND COOLER, MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHORTWAVE TRACKING OFF THE COAST WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT SOUTH,
BUT WILL GET STRUNG OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AS FLOW FLATTENS OUT
ALOFT AND RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL LEAD
TO A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION SHOULD SLOW. OVERALL EXPECT SHALLOW
COOLER AIR BLEEDING IN FROM THE NORTH CREATING A DECENT NORTH
TO SOUTH GRADIENT OF COOL TO WARM TEMPS BEGINNING TONIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF CLOUDS AFFECTING THE TEMPS ON THURS BUT
BASICALLY MID 60S NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDS IN FROM THE NORTH WITH LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND
FRONT LINGERS TO THE SOUTH.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD,
MAINLY RESULTING A CLOUDINESS FROM TIME TO TIME. THE WARM FRONT
WILL LIFE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
FOLLOWED BY THE COLD FRONT LATE SATURDAY. IT'S NOT IMPOSSIBLE
THERE COULD BE A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD AND SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT.
UNFORTUNATELY, THE CHANCES FOR A WETTING RAIN ARE LOW AND ANY
RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD UNLESS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH MORE SLOWLY
THAN ANTICIPATED THURSDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN LOOK A
LITTLE BETTER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE ATTENDANT LOW COMING
FROM THE GULF COAST REGION MAY BRING MORE MOISTURE WITH IT THAN
THE WEEKEND SYSTEM WILL HAVE AVAILABLE. FOR THE MOST PART,
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA CURRENTLY. LIGHT NORTH
TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE IN PLACE OR SHOULD DEVELOP SHORTLY. SCATTERED
TO BROKEN VFR STRATOCUMULUS AT OR ABOVE 5000 FEET AGL MAY
LINGER THROUGH 02-03Z IN THE KMYR AREA. THERE IS A LOW
POTENTIAL OF IMPACTS FROM POST-FRONTAL LOW STRATUS CLOUDS IN THE
KILM AREA AFTER 10Z. MOST (BUT NOT ALL) MODELS KEEP THIS LOW CLOUD
DECK NORTH OF WILMINGTON THURSDAY MORNING. NORTHEAST WINDS
SHOULD VEER MORE EASTERLY DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED
ALTOCUMULUS AND CIRRUS CONTINUING OVERHEAD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF MVFR TO IFR
VISIBILITY IN GROUND FOG EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE KFLO AIRPORT. A LOW CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY MAY
DEVELOP AGAIN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING FOR ALL LOCAL AIRPORTS
MARINE
THROUGH THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE
WATERS THIS EVENING WITH W-NW WINDS SHIFTING TO N-NE AND
PICKING UP A BIT BEHIND THE FRONT. BY MIDNIGHT WINDS SHOULD BE
NE MAINLY 10 TO 15 KTS. WINDS WILL REMAIN NE AS HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY. SEAS AROUND 2 FT
WILL RISE A FOOT OR SO ON THURS IN NE PUSH.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...DESPITE A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN, THE GRADIENTS WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL TROUGHS AND
HIGH PRESSURE AREN'T PARTICULARLY STRONG. THIS SHOULD LIMIT WIND
SPEEDS TO 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS
WINDS VEER FROM EASTERLY THU NIGHT TO SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FOR
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING W TO NW
WINDS LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RESULT IN N TO NE WINDS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A TURN TOWARD
THE EAST POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY. SEAS SHOULD RUN 2 TO 3 FEET
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH 4 FOOTERS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SATURDAY WHEN WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AT THEIR PEAK OF 15 TO
PERHAPS 20 KT.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM...31
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...RGZ/31
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