687
FXUS62 KILM 200556
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1256 AM EST THU NOV 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. A WARM UP WILL FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER HIGH PRESSURE AND
COOLER, MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT BRINGS A REALITY CHECK AFTER OUR RUN AT
80 DEGREES THOUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL STILL WIND UP A TAD ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY ESPECIALLY INLAND. COASTAL LOCALES CLOSER TO NORMAL
AS ONSHORE FLOW ADVECTS ACROSS THE SST'S THAT ARE NOW BARELY
ABOVE 60 DEGREES. THE EXTREME SE TIP OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY
INCLUDING SOUTHPORT MAY EVEN STRUGGLE TO ACHIEVE THE ADVERTISED
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. CLOUD COVER TODAY WILL HAVE VARIABILITY IN
TEMPORAL, SPATIAL, AND VERTICAL EXTENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
MOIST LAYERS AT 4-5KFT UNDER THE FRONTAL INVERSION AS WELL AS
IN A DEEP LAYER ABOVE ABOUT 500MB, THE LATTER'S OPACITY MAKING
IT TRICKY TO PUT A PERCENTAGE TO CLOUD COVER. THE HIGHER LAYER
WILL ALSO COME TO DOMINATE TONIGHT AS CIRRUS LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES REESTABLISHED. AREAS SOUTH OF THE FRONT
MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG ON FRIDAY MORNING. WARMER ON FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S. A FEW AREAS COULD HIT THE 80
DEGREE MARK IN NORTHEASTERN SC. MILD OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY
ADVECTION CONTINUING; AROUND 60 OR LOWER 60S.
A SHORTWAVE MOVING EASTWARD OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY
WILL STRENGTHEN SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THE ENERGY
ALOFT COULD PRODUCE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. COVERAGE
IS UNLIKELY TO BE WIDESPREAD DUE TO THE BEST ENERGY REMAINING
NORTH OF OUR AREA. WHILE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
EARLIER IN THE DAY, SHOWERS WILL BE MORE LIKELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. WARM ADVECTION
WILL ALSO PRODUCE INSTABILITY LATER IN THE DAY, SO IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EMBEDDED IN ANY
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP.
ENHANCED SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE
ANOTHER WARM DAY WIDESPREAD 80S LIKELY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BRINGING THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS BEHIND IT.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE NORTH AND LOWER 50S TO THE SOUTH,
DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON
SUNDAY. A LITTLE COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS, BUT STILL AROUND OR
JUST ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE AREA. NOT MUCH MOVEMENT OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL ALLOW
LOWS TO COOL NICELY; LOWER 40S EXPECTED WITH A FEW INLAND AREAS
IN THE UPPER 30S. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ON MONDAY AND FULL SUNSHINE
WILL HELP TEMPERATURES REBOUND BY MONDAY AFTERNOON TO AROUND 70,
LOWER 70S FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN SC.
A SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON
TUESDAY WILL INTENSIFY SOUTHERLY MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE COLD
FRONT WILL SLOW ITS PROGRESSION AS IT MOVES EASTWARD, BUT IT MAY
PRODUCE SURFACE LIFT FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR. A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE REGION. NE POST-
FRONTAL WINDS OCCASIONALLY MORE EASTERLY AT TIMES ALONG THE
COAST. THE PREVALENT MOISTURE LAYER WILL BE AT THE CIRRUS LEVEL,
PERHAPS MORESO TONIGHT. THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY AS TO THE
EXTENT OF A MOIST LAYER IN THE 4-5 KFT RANGE, PERHAPS SCT AT
MOST BUT HAVE LEFT OUT AT TIME. VERY LIGHT IF NOT VARIABLE WIND
TONIGHT AS A SURFACE-BASED INVERSION DEVELOPS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK... PREDOMINATELY VFR. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
MVFR TO IFR FOG ON FRIDAY MORNING.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE STALLED ALONG
THE SC/GA BORDER FOR MOST OF THE NEAR TERM. LOCALLY THIS WILL
BRING NE WINDS TODAY THAT WILL ABATE AS THE FRONT WEAKENS. THE
2-3 FT WIND WAVE WILL BE THE MAIN, IF NOT ONLY WAVE IN THE
SPECTRUM.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... RETURN FLOW ON FRIDAY BRINGS WARM
WEATHER AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY. WARM
ADVECTION PEAKS ON SATURDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SOME PATCHY SEA FOG MAY EXIST BOTH DAYS. A COLD FRONT
MOVES OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP ON
SUNDAY, BUT POOR COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP WINDS AROUND 15
KNOTS AND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS. SEAS AROUND 2-3 FEET FOR MOST
OF THE WEEKEND; SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH INCREASED WIND SPEEDS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...MBB
MARINE...MBB/21
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