139
FXUS62 KILM 201833
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
133 PM EST THU NOV 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM UP IS ON TAP FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
WITH DRIER HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER, MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SC
LOWCOUNTRY, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING ERODED AWAY BY MIDDAY, AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE REBOUNDED INTO THE 60S THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH IS
STILL 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY.
TONIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE EDGES CLOSER TO THE CAROLINAS, ALLOWING WINDS
TO CALM BY SUNSET THIS EVENING. EVEN WITH CIRRUS ALOFT, PATCHY
GROUND FOG LOOKS POSSIBLE BEFORE AND DURING SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING,
MOSTLY OVER THE PEE DEE REGION. LOWS GENERALLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE
LOWER 50S.
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN LOWCOUNTRY BECOMES A WARM FRONT
AND SURGES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS SHOULD ONLY MANIFEST IN SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER,
BUT SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN OTHERWISE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT MAY
TRY TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME DRIZZLE RIGHT ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE PEE DEE REGION AND THE NC COASTAL PLAIN. DRY WEATHER SHOULD
STILL BE THE MAIN IDEA, WITH A QUICK TRANSITION INTO THE WARM
SECTOR. HIGHS IMMEDIATELY SHOOT BACK UP INTO THE MID-TO-UPPER 70S,
WITH DEWPOINTS ALSO ROCKETING INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 60S.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD, MAINLY
RESULTING INCREASED CLOUDINESS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.
HOWEVER, COVERAGE LOOKS LIMITED AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS, IF ANY, WILL
BE LIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY RESULTING
IN FAIR WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY BEFORE WARMING
FOR MONDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BEFORE COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THURSDAY.
THERE ARE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND MAYBE THUNDER IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE FAIR WEATHER RETURNS
FOR THANKSGIVING DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. CURRENTLY HAVE VARIABLE TO
EASTERLY WINDS AT 5-7 KTS, WHICH CALM BY SUNSET THIS EVENING. EVEN
WITH SOME CIRRUS ALOFT TONIGHT, CALM WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND
INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY ALLOW FOR SOME GROUND
FOG TO FORM BEFORE AND DURING SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. KFLO STANDS
THE BEST CHANCE AT RECORDING MVFR VISIBILITIES, WITH KLBT HAVING THE
SECOND BEST CHANCE. CAN'T RULE OUT VERY BRIEF RESTRICTIONS AT KILM,
KCRE, AND KMYR, BUT THIS ULTIMATELY SHOULDN'T BE A BIG ISSUE. FOG
ERODES BY AROUND 14Z, AND WINDS GRADUALLY PICK UP TO A LIGHT BREEZE
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. SOME MAY HAVE
SOME VFR CEILINGS AT 5000-6000 FT BY THAT POINT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. CAN'T RULE OUT BRIEF PATCHY
FOG EACH MORNING. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING MAY CREATE SOME LIMITED RESTRICTIONS IN RA, BUT THAT ALSO
COMES WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.
MARINE
THROUGH FRIDAY...NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS VEER SLIGHTLY TO
THE ENE AND DECREASE TO 5-10 KTS BY TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT SURGES
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING, CREATING A VARIABLE WIND
AT FIRST, BUT THEN SETTLING ON SOUTHWESTERLY AT 10 KTS BY LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS AT 2-3 FT DECREASE TO 1-2 FT BY TONIGHT.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... PRESSURE GRADIENTS WITH THE WEATHER
FEATURES DURING THIS PERIOD DON'T LOOK PARTICULARLY STRONG. THIS
SHOULD LIMIT WIND SPEEDS TO 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH MOST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS WINDS VEER FROM S TO SW FRI NIGHT TO NW TO NW SAT
NIGHT AND N TO NE FOR SUN INTO MON. WINDS WILL FURTHER VEER TO E TO
SE BY TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. SEAS SHOULD RUN 2 TO 3
FEET THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH 4 FOOTERS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SAT WHEN WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AT THEIR PEAK OF 15 TO PERHAPS 20
KT. FOUR FOOTERS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY NORTHERN WATERS.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...IGB
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM...31
AVIATION...IGB
MARINE...ILM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page