057
FXUS62 KILM 210543
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1243 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES WARM TODAY AND SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY WITH DRIER
HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER, MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AREAS OF FOG AND PATCHY DENSE FOG OVER NORTHEASTERN SC WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
INTENSIFIES. WARM ADVECTION INCREASES LATER TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH. AFTER THURSDAY TOPPED OUT IN THE MID AND
UPPER 60S, TEMPERATURES COULD BE AROUND 10 WARMER ON FRIDAY. EARLY
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL MAINTAIN SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THESE WARM
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A BI-MODAL
DISTRIBUTION WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S, AND THE CURRENT FORECAST
OF UPPER 70S. THE ADDITION OF SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY ALSO LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING, NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF SOME PASSING MID LEVEL ENERGY AND
THE LIFTING WARM FRONT. PASSING LIGHT SHOWERS MAY CLIP THE EXTREME
NORTHERN TIER OF OUR FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO NOON.
INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT
THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TONIGHT. INCREASING DEW POINTS OFFSHORE MAY
PRODUCE SOME PATCHY SEA FOG OVERNIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE ANY FOG IMPACTS TO COASTAL COMMUNITIES. MILD WITH LOWS
AROUND 60.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
WEEKEND WILL EXPERIENCE A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES FROM SAT
INTO SUN FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATER ON SAT. A WEAK
LOW ALONG THE FRONT AND A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MAY LEAD TO SOME
SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM, ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE AND ITS MOISTURE MAY END UP BEING TOO EARLY, LIMITING THE
AMOUNT OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT ARRIVES LATER IN THE DAY, AFTER THE DEEP MOISTURE HAS EXITING
EAST-NORTHEAST AND IN THE POST WAVE SUBSIDENCE REGIME. ALL IN ALL
NOT LOOKING LIKE MUCH OF A RAINFALL EVENT, EVEN THOUGH IT SEEMS
LIKELY THAT AT LEAST A FEW AREAS WILL SEE MOISTURE FALLING FROM THE
SKY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
SAT NIGHT BECOMING NORTH-NORTHEAST BY SUN MORNING. CENTER OF THE
HIGH SHIFTS NORTHWEST OF THE AREA SUN BEFORE EXPANDING SOUTH SUN
NIGHT. NOT AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP, BUT WILL STILL HAVE
SOME RADIATIONAL IMPACTS. TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL SAT AND SAT
NIGHT DROP NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SUN AND SUN NIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MID-LEVEL PATTERN WILL UNDERGO A TRANSITION NEXT WEEK, SHIFTING FROM
FLAT EARLY IN THE WEEK TO HIGHLY AMPLIFIED BY MID-WEEK. WORK WEEK
STARTS OUT MILD AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS. THE WARM, MOIST RETURN FLOW AND A WEAK TROUGH IN THE
REGION MAY LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TUE. WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
OF THE AREA TUE NIGHT INTO WED AND MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ELEVATED CONVECTION. ISOLATED WARM SECTOR
SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE WED. HOWEVER, THE LACK OF DYNAMICAL FORCING
AT ANY POINT TUE THROUGH WED WILL KEEP ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS
LIGHT. STRONGER DYNAMICS ARRIVE LATE WED AND/OR WED NIGHT AS HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED 5H TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CONUS, PUSHING AN IMPRESSIVE
COLD FRONT AHEAD OF IT. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RAIN CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THE PARENT LOW IS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
AND THE BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE IS VERY NARROW. IT'S POSSIBLE A BROKEN
LINE OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT WED NIGHT, BUT FAR
FROM CERTAIN. THE NOCTURNAL TIMING IS ALSO A LIMITING FACTOR, BUT
THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT WILL HELP OFFSET THE LACK OF SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY. MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR
THANKSGIVING.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AREAS OF FOG, SOME DENSE, WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN SC AND MAY REACH
LBT BEFORE SUNRISE ON FRIDAY. IFR IMPACTS ARE ALMOST CERTAIN FOR
THESE AREAS BETWEEN NOW AND THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL GRADUALLY SCOUR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ON FRIDAY MORNING WITH VFR
RETURNING ACROSS THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
REMAIN ELEVATED TONIGHT AND SHOULD PREVENT RADIATION FOG. SOME LOW
CLOUDS OR NEAR-COAST SEA FOG ARE POSSIBLE.
EXTENDED FORECAST... BRIEF CEILING/VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY IN ISOLATED SHOWERS. LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR
PATCHY GROUND FOG EARLY EACH MORNING SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NEXT
WEEK.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...
RETURN FLOW BRINGS WARM WEATHER AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. POOR MIXING WILL KEEP GUSTS AT OR JUST
LESS THAN 20 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
SEAS START AT 1-2 FEET THIS MORNING AND INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT WITH THE STRONGER BREEZE TO AROUND 2-4 FEET.
MOISTURE ADVECTION OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST MAY PRODUCE SOME SEA FOG
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT, BUT CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL. WINDS
SHOULD INCREASE SUFFICIENTLY LATE TONIGHT TO LOWER THIS CHANCE.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
SOMEWHAT ENHANCED SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SAT BECOMES OFFSHORE SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS COLD ADVECTION PRESENT, THE GRADIENT POST FRONT IS
WEAKER THAN THE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EVEN AS THE
NORTHERLY SURGE ARRIVES WINDS WILL STRUGGLE TO HIT 20KT SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND
DESPITE GOOD MIXING DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
GUSTS. WINDS DECREASE SUN INTO MON WITH SPEEDS UNDER 15 KT MON
AND TUE, BECOMING SOUTHEAST TUE. OTHER THAN A BRIEF FORAY INTO
THE REALM OF 5 FT LATE SAT, MAINLY WELL AWAY FROM SHORE, SEAS
WILL BE 3 FT OR LESS INTO TUE. LATE TUE THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
START TO PUSH SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEAS BEYOND 20 NM INTO THE
NEARSHORE ZONES. THE WIND WAVE WILL BE DOMINANT, FIRST WITH A
SOUTHWEST WIND WAVE SAT AND THEN A NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND WAVE
DEVELOPING SUN AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUE.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...21
MARINE...ILM
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