891
FXUS62 KILM 211836
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
136 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
THE WARM UP CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY WITH A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY WITH DRIER
HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER, MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY, BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
UNFORTUNATELY, IT LOOKS LIKE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT TO
NONE FOR MOST FOLKS. "LOWS" TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S WILL BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL HIGHS THAN TYPICAL LOWS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL REACH THE MID 70S TO AROUND
80.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING OVER THE CAPE
FEAR REGION - DESPITE THE BEST MOISTURE SLIDING OFFSHORE
EARLIER IN THE DAY, A POTENT MID-LEVEL VORT MAX WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA. THEREAFTER, DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NW...ALSO LEADING TO TEMPS BOTH PERIODS BEING UP TO 10 DEGREES
LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY WITH WEAK CAA.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF DRY AS THE SFC HIGH SLIDES
OFFSHORE AND MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. A SLIGHT UPTICK IN POPS FOLLOWS THEREAFTER THROUGH MIDWEEK
AS MOISTURE RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ALONG WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT, WHICH CROSSES THE AREA
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY (GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER GREATLY ON
THE TIMING OF THIS) WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DRY THEN FOLLOWING THE FROPA TO END THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS WILL
FOLLOW SIMILAR TRENDS THROUGH THE WEEK AS POPS...INCREASING
THROUGH MIDWEEK THEN DROPPING TOWARDS THE END, WITH HIGHS FRIDAY
ONLY IN THE MID/UPR 50S.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
OVERALL, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE VALID TAF PERIOD. POTENTIAL
EXCEPTIONS WILL BE IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SAT WHEN MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE BUT NOT LIKELY ENOUGH FOR
INCLUSION IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS ATTM.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK... MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION SAT AFTERNOON INTO EVENING, OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A
FRONTAL SYSTEM BY WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH SATURDAY...
S TO SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME W TO SW
BY LATE SATURDAY. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FEET WITH 4 FOOTERS
POSSIBLE CLOSER TO FRYING PAN SHOALS.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE WATERS SATURDAY EVENING, BUT
FOLLOWED BY ONLY WEAK CAA SO A SCA IS UNLIKELY...WINDS 10-20 KT.
BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS THEREAFTER EARLY TO MID WEEK AHEAD OF
THE NEXT COLD FROPA, WITH WINDS CONSISTENTLY 10-15 KT AND SEAS
2-4 FT - MAINLY WIND WAVE-DRIVEN AS ANY SWELL COMPONENT IS VERY
WEAK.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...31
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...31
MARINE...MAS/31
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