578
FXUS62 KILM 212325
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
625 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
THE WARM UP CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY WITH A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY WITH DRIER
HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER, MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY, BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
UNFORTUNATELY, IT LOOKS LIKE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT TO
NONE FOR MOST FOLKS. "LOWS" TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S WILL BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL HIGHS THAN TYPICAL LOWS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL REACH THE MID 70S TO AROUND
80.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING OVER THE CAPE
FEAR REGION - DESPITE THE BEST MOISTURE SLIDING OFFSHORE
EARLIER IN THE DAY, A POTENT MID-LEVEL VORT MAX WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA. THEREAFTER, DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NW...ALSO LEADING TO TEMPS BOTH PERIODS BEING UP TO 10 DEGREES
LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY WITH WEAK CAA.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF DRY AS THE SFC HIGH SLIDES
OFFSHORE AND MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. A SLIGHT UPTICK IN POPS FOLLOWS THEREAFTER THROUGH MIDWEEK
AS MOISTURE RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ALONG WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT, WHICH CROSSES THE AREA
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY (GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER GREATLY ON
THE TIMING OF THIS) WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DRY THEN FOLLOWING THE FROPA TO END THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS WILL
FOLLOW SIMILAR TRENDS THROUGH THE WEEK AS POPS...INCREASING
THROUGH MIDWEEK THEN DROPPING TOWARDS THE END, WITH HIGHS FRIDAY
ONLY IN THE MID/UPR 50S.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVER THE COMING 24 HOURS, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS. HIGH-RES MODEL
ENSEMBLES SHOW SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT, MAINLY AFTER 05Z, AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES.
SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LUMBERTON (LBT) AREA
MAINLY AFTER 09Z, HOPEFULLY REMAINING JUST NORTH OF WILMINGTON
(ILM) AS THEY MOVE EAST TOWARD THE COAST BETWEEN 12-15Z.
ANOTHER WAVE OF SHOWERS AN COULD ACCOMPANY THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT LATE IN THE DAY AFTER 21Z, BUT ODDS OF DIRECT IMPACTS ON
ANY SPECIFIC AIRPORT ARE LOW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY IS POSSIBLE EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING IN GROUND FOG. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL
BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
MARINE
THROUGH SATURDAY...
S TO SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME W TO SW
BY LATE SATURDAY. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FEET WITH 4 FOOTERS
POSSIBLE CLOSER TO FRYING PAN SHOALS.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE WATERS SATURDAY EVENING, BUT
FOLLOWED BY ONLY WEAK CAA SO A SCA IS UNLIKELY...WINDS 10-20 KT.
BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS THEREAFTER EARLY TO MID WEEK AHEAD OF
THE NEXT COLD FROPA, WITH WINDS CONSISTENTLY 10-15 KT AND SEAS
2-4 FT - MAINLY WIND WAVE-DRIVEN AS ANY SWELL COMPONENT IS VERY
WEAK.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...31
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...TRA/31
MARINE...MAS/31
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