560
FXUS62 KILM 221721
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1221 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
WARM WEATHER CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER
POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER, MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH MUCH COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED BY
THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING, BRINGING
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS, MAINLY THIS EVENING.
WITH DRY AIR MOVING IN AT THE MID LEVELS FROM THE WEST, THIS
SHOULD PREVENT THUNDER BUT A RUMBLE OR TWO ISN'T COMPLETELY OUT
OF THE QUESTION NEARER THE COAST NORTHERN ZONES. LOSS OF
HEATING SHOULD PRECLUDE CONVECTION FROM REACHING FAR SOUTHERN
ZONES. CLEARING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SUNDAY.
AFTER HIGHS INVOF 80 TODAY, LOWS WILL FALL TO THE LOW TO MID
50S TONIGHT WITH HIGHS SUNDAY ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY PRIOR TO SHIFTING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG
THE CAROLINAS DURING THIS TIME, BUT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN VERY
LIMITED WITH DRY WLY FLOW FROM H85 AND ALOFT. BETTER LOW-LEVEL
RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO RETURN LATE IN THE PERIOD,
BUT MORE-SO DURING TUESDAY. IN SPITE OF RIDGING FROM THE NORTH
COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE LACKING TEMPERATURES WILL
BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
H5 RIDGING WILL BE FAR SE OF THE CAROLINAS BY TUESDAY AS A
TROUGH EXISTS ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH MOST OF THE IMPULSES
EMBEDDED IN THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINING ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS INITIALLY. THE WEAK COASTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTHWARD WITH SOME RAINFALL CHANCES TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF POPS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT. DURING THURSDAY THE H5 RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S. DRIVING THE COLD FRONT FARTHER OFFSHORE.
COOLER WEATHER WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA THANKS TO DRY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
DURING THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE/COLDER WEATHER WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ABOUT THE FIRST HALF OF THE
VALID TAF PERIOD. A LITTLE MVFR IS POSSIBLE SHOULD SHOWERS
MATERIALIZE AT NORTHERN TERMINALS. AFTER FROPA, CIGS AOB 1 KFT
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND SHOULD AFFECT MOST TERMINALS. CIGS
COULD BE SLOW TO LIFT AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY.
EXTENDED FORECAST... OUTSIDE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MORNING
FOG, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE RESTRICTIONS IN CONVECTION WITH A FRONT WEDNIGHT NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH SUNDAY...SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BECOME W BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING BEFORE BECOMING N
TO NW AT 10 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SEAS WILL RUN 2
TO 4 THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 2 FEET BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
RIDGE ACROSS THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION WITH N-NELY WINDS. AS THE HIGH MIGRATES TOWARD THE EAST
THE FLOW WILL VEER TO AN ELY DIRECTION DURING MONDAY. A WEAK
COASTAL TROUGH COULD DELAY ADDITIONAL VEERING UNTIL TUESDAY AS
IT BECOMES INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW. A
SWLY FETCH WITH INCREASED WINDS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT SLATED FOR PASSAGE AROUND THURSDAY. COULD
BE A SHOT OF STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS
BOUNDARY LATE THURSDAY. SEAS WILL BE AROUND 3 FT THROUGH MUCH
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH HIGH FREQUENCY SEAS WED. ANY
OFFSHORE FLOW LATE IN THE PERIOD WOULD OPEN UP A LARGER RANGE
IN SEAS. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS TUE INTO WED MORNING, THEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING UNTIL THE FRONT
MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...SRP
AVIATION...21
MARINE...ILM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page