973
FXUS62 KILM 230523
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1223 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY HIGH PRESSURE AND NEAR SEASONABLE WEATHER ARRIVE TODAY
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATER THIS WEEK WITH MUCH COOLER WEATHER
EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT THAT IS
WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WILL DICTATE LOW TEMPERATURES. A
GRADIENT OF LOWS FROM MID 50S OVER SC AND LOWER 50S OVER THE
NORTHERN PART OF OUR AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. COOLER AND DRIER
AIR EXPECTED ON SUNDAY; HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S OVER SOUTHEASTERN NC
AND LOWER 70S IN NORTHEASTERN SC. AFTER A MIX OF PATCHY FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS THIS MORNING, SUNSHINE SHOULD DOMINATE THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR TONIGHT SHOULD ALLOW THINGS TO
COOL OFF QUITE NICELY. LOWER 40S INLAND, MID 40S AT THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
SEASONABLE AND DRY TO START THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTHWEST MIGRATES EAST DURING THE DAY. NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP
HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL UNDER SUNNY SKIES. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL START TO INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM,
BUT WILL HAVE LIMITED IMPACT LOCALLY. WEAK COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS
MON NIGHT INTO TUE AS THE HIGH SLIPS OFF THE COAST, BUT THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FLOW ALOFT KEEPS THE HIGH MOVING,
PREVENTING ANY REAL WEDGE DEVELOPMENT. TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE AROUND
DAYBREAK AND IN EFFECT BECOMES A WARM FRONT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS
UP.
WARM, MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TUE PUSHES TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. WEAK SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND INCREASED MOISTURE BELOW
8K FT MAY LEAD TO SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY, ALTHOUGH
INSTABILITY IS VERY WEAK, SBCAPE STRUGGLES TO HIT 200 J/KG, AND
SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ABOVE 700MB WILL KEEP ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP
UNDER 5K FT IN TOTAL DEPTH. NOT A RECIPE FOR MUCH IF ANY RAINFALL.
SOMEWHAT BETTER RAIN CHANCES TUE NIGHT AS WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA THEN STALLS EARLY WED AS IT ENDS UP PARALLEL TO THE FLOW
ALOFT. LIMITED DYNAMICS, LINGERING MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AND LACK OF
INSTABILITY WILL KEEP COVERAGE IN THE SCATTERED REALM, WITH
BEST CHANCES WEST OF I-95 IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
FRONT STALLED IN THE REGION WED MORNING LINGERS INTO THE EVENING,
WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND INCREASING SURFACE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN THIS WEEK WILL BE ON WED GIVEN THE
ENVIRONMENT, THE WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND MODEST
DIVERGENCE ALOFT. FRONT REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA WED KEEPING THE
REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE LARGER 5H TROUGH LATER
WED HELPS KICK THE STALLED FRONT IN THE REGION OFFSHORE WED NIGHT
NIGHT INTO THU. THE KICKING SHORTWAVE ALSO SEND A SURGE OF COLD AIR
INTO THE REGION WED NIGHT, CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO TUMBLE FOR
THANKSGIVING. LOWS WED NIGHT WILL END UP NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL, BUT
AIDED BY WIND/MIXING. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS WELL
BELOW NORMAL THU WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR THU NIGHT INTO FRI
ENSURING THE WEEK ENDS DRY, BUT WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW
NORMAL.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE CURRENT 6
HOUR TAF PERIOD. LOWER CONFIDENCE REGARDING PATCHY FOG AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR VIS RESTRICTIONS, BUT CIG RESTRICTIONS IN LIFR OR
VLIFR WILL SUPERSEDE VIS (CIGS LESS THAN 800 FEET IN MOST CASES).
LOW CLOUDS DISPERSE THIS MORNING AND GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THIS AFTERNOON. VFR DEVELOPING AFTER 13Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH
TONIGHT.
EXTENDED FORECAST... VFR OUTSIDE OF SOME MORNING FOG DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...
NORTHERLY WINDS FOLLOW A COLD FRONT THIS MORNING. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE GRADUAL AND UNLIKELY TO PROMOTE THE TYPICAL
LEVEL OF MIXING WE WOULD EXPECT WITH A LATE FALL COLD FRONT.
WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT OFFSHORE. NORTHEAST WINDS
INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD LATE TONIGHT WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS 2-3 FEET THIS MORNING, DECREASING TO 1-2
FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND 2-3 AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
NORTHERLY FLOW MON TURNS ONSHORE MON NIGHT INTO TUE AS COASTAL
TROUGH DEVELOPS. TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWEST TUE MORNING WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH WED. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WED
NIGHT AND THU FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT RESULTS IN
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW ON THANKSGIVING. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF A
PRESSURE GRADIENT MON THROUGH WED WHICH WILL KEEP SPEEDS UNDER
15 KT. GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP LATE WED OR WED NIGHT AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO 20 KT JUST
PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE WED NIGHT
AND THU AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. BRIEF PERIOD OF 20-25 KT
POSSIBLE LATE WED NIGHT AND THU WHICH MAY REQUIRE A BRIEF
DURATION SCA. SEAS 2-3 FT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, BUILDING
BRIEFLY TO 3-4 FT WED NIGHT BEFORE THE STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW
KNOCKS SEAS BACK TO 2-3 FT THU. WIND WAVE WILL BE DOMINANT,
FIRST FROM THE NORTHEAST THEN SHIFTING AROUND TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
LATER TUE BEFORE GOING BACK TO NORTHERLY THU.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...21
MARINE...III/21
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