755
FXUS62 KILM 231756
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1256 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY HIGH PRESSURE AND NEAR-SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TOMORROW. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA
AROUND MIDWEEK WITH ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOW RAIN
CHANCES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FALLING TO WELL-BELOW NORMAL
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AMIDST VERY DRY AIR.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF AREA WEATHER. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL TO
THE LOW TO MID 40S WITH HIGHS MONDAY GENERALLY BETWEEN 65 AND
70.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INCREASINGLY OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS MID-UPPER RIDGING MOVES EASTWARD AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. WITH EASTERLY WINDS TURNING SOUTHEASTERLY
OVER MONDAY NIGHT, EXPECT MORNING LOWS ON TUESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE
MID-UPPER 40S INLAND TO THE LOW-MID 50S ALONG THE COAST. A COASTAL
SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE SURFACE HIGH DEPARTS
WITH A PLUME OF MOISTURE AND WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT ARRIVING ALONG
THE 290-295K SURFACES DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH MUCH OR ALL OF THE DAY. DESPITE
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, THE SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INLAND
WITH WINDS TURNING SOUTHERLY BEHIND IT, BOOSTING TEMPS INTO THE LOW-
MID 70S. ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS VERY WEAK
INSTABILITY EITHER DEVELOPS DUE TO SURFACE HEATING OR ARRIVES IN AN
ELEVATED LAYER DURING THE AFTERNOON. EITHER WAY, THE SHALLOW DEPTH
OF THE MOISTURE (I.E., EXISTING PRIMARILY BELOW 800MB) WILL LIMIT
ANY SHOWER'S INTENSITY.
MEANWHILE, THE APPROACHING MID-UPPER TROUGH WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON TUESDAY WITH THIS FRONT CROSSING
THE APPALACHIANS OVER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE
SLOWING DOWN. SHORTWAVE IMPULSES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO
THE GULF STREAM WATERS BECOMING CONVECTIVELY-ACTIVE DURING TUESDAY
NIGHT, WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT HELPING TO KEEP MOST OR ALL OF
THIS ACTIVITY AWAY FROM CAPE FEAR. HOWEVER, AS THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT DRAWS NEARER FROM THE WEST AND SLOWS DOWN, WEAKENING UPPER
SUPPORT AND SUBSEQUENTLY WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE SHOULD SUPPORT A
DECAYING BAND OF SHOWERS MAKING IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA, MAINLY
DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE
WARM SECTOR SHOULD SUPPORT A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN WITH HIGH
TEMPS REACHING WELL-ABOVE NORMAL AND PROBABLY HIGHER THAN IS
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED (MID-UPPER 70S), WITH SOME AREAS LIKELY TO
ECLIPSE 80F IF SKY COVER PERMITS.
DAYTIME HEATING OF A RELATIVELY MOIST AIR MASS (E.G., LOW
TO PERHAPS MID-60S DEW POINTS WITH PWATS AROUND 1.25-1.5") SHOULD
YIELD SOMEWHERE IN THE RANGE OF 250-750 J/KG OF SBCAPE, SO ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN STILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AS
IT CROSSES THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE
EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES AROUND 40-45 KTS COULD SUPPORT A GUSTY
WIND THREAT, FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MULTIPLE LAYERS OF DRY AIR
THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE WHICH WILL LIKELY CHOKE UPDRAFTS
SUBSTANTIALLY AND KEEP MOST STORMS WEAK, EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS ONE OR
TWO.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT THURSDAY WITH BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS TAKING OVER BEHIND IT, CAUSING A RAPID DROP IN
TEMPERATURES WHICH SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE 40S BY SUNRISE THURSDAY.
STRONG COLD AND DRY ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE WITH A LONG FETCH INTO WESTERN CANADA BUILDS IN WHILE A
STRONG CLOSED LOW WRAPS UP OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND SHIFTS ACROSS
QUEBEC THROUGH FRIDAY, RESULTING IN WELL-BELOW-NORMAL HIGHS IN THE
50S. PWATS SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 0.25" ON THURSDAY AS VERY DRY AIR
AND DEEP-LAYER SUBSIDENCE TAKE OVER, REFLECTED BY DEW POINTS
DROPPING WELL INTO THE 20S OR EVEN INTO THE TEENS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO DIP TO NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING, WITH WINDS BEING A LIMITING FACTOR IN HOW COLD IT GETS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE A MUCH BETTER SETUP FOR
A WIDESPREAD FREEZE. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO RECOVER ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS AIR MASS
SHIFTS TO THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST AND OFFSHORE, SETTING UP A
SURFACE WEDGE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. WINDS ARE
A LITTLE MORE PROBLEMATIC DUE TO THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
AREA. WINDS HAVE GONE SE-S ALONG THE GRAND STRAND DUE TO SEA BREEZE
EFFECTS WHILE ELSEWHERE WINDS ARE N TO NW. WHILE SOME VARIABILITY
IN DIRECTION REMAINS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON, EXPECT
WINDS TO BECOME NEARLY CALM AFTER SUNSET. AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY,
LIGHT NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
EXTENDED FORECAST...VFR OUTSIDE OF SOME MORNING FOG DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.
MARINE
THROUGH MONDAY...N TO NE WINDS INVOF 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BECOME N TO NW OVERNIGHT BEFORE VEERING TO THE NE TO E BY LATE IN
THE DAY MONDAY. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT BUT SHOULD SETTLE TO ABOUT
2 FEET BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
INCREASINGLY OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST OVER MONDAY NIGHT,
CAUSING WINDS TO VEER FROM ENE TO SE. A COASTAL TROUGH SHIFTING
INLAND WILL RESULT IN WINDS VEERING FURTHER TO SOUTHERLY DURING THE
DAY ON TUESDAY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10KTS. AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT, WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KTS AND VEER TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE OVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT TURNING THE WINDS TO NORTHWESTERLY FOR
THURSDAY AND PUSHING WINDS UP TO AROUND 15-20 KTS. SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM 1-3 FT ON TUESDAY TO 2-4 FT ON WEDNESDAY
BEFORE SUBSIDING BACK TO 1-3 FT ON THURSDAY. THE PRIMARY CONTRIBUTOR
TO THE WAVE SPECTRUM WILL BE WIND WAVES WITH A PERIOD AROUND 3-5
SEC.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...31
SHORT TERM...ABW
LONG TERM...ABW
AVIATION...31
MARINE...ABW
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