523
FXUS62 KILM 241116
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
616 AM EST MON NOV 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY, NEAR-SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY BEFORE
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA AROUND MIDWEEK.
A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND LOW RAIN CHANCES INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WELL- BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING
OFF INTO SUNDAY.
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
GENERALLY FLAT FLOW ALOFT TODAY AND TONIGHT QUICKLY SHIFTS SURFACE
HIGH NORTHWEST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
THIS EVENING. TAIL END OF WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
BEFORE DAWN, BUT OVERALL IMPACT TO THE REGION IS LIMITED GIVEN THE
WEAK COLD ADVECTION AND ITS BRIEF DURATION. SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, ENHANCING MID-LEVEL WARMING AND
DRYING, ENSURING TODAY REMAINS DRY. PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING, MAINLY CLOSE TO THE COAST, WILL MIX OUT QUICKLY, WITH CLEAR
SKIES TODAY. LATER THIS EVENING MOISTURE STARTS INCREASING AROUND
300MB, LEADING TO AN EVER THICKENING CIRRUS DECK OVERNIGHT. WEAK
COASTAL TROUGH STARTS TO DEVELOP DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS TUE WHICH
MAY LEAD TO SOME LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST JUST PRIOR TO DAWN. NOT
MUCH OF A SIGNAL FOR ANY RAIN/SHOWERS WITH THE COASTAL TROUGH RIGHT
NOW, BUT A SPRINKLE MOVING ONSHORE NEAR CAPE FEAR WITH THE SUNRISE
WOULD NOT BE SHOCKING. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION TODAY WILL
LEAD TO HIGHS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. CIRRUS
SHIELD AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL HOLD LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH WILL PUSH FURTHER OFFSHORE AHEAD
OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM, THE WARM FRONT PUSHING IN FROM THE SOUTH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASE IN RAIN
CHANCES FROM SW TO NE. SOME CONVECTION COULD FORM OFFSHORE AS THAT'S
WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE RAIN
CHANCES WILL SHIFT TO INLAND AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES BUT
LINGERS INLAND. SHORTWAVE ENERGY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH WITH RAIN CHANCES MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE FRONT
MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE STUCK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH COLDER,
DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE N/NW ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE 50S WITH LOWS NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING. THE HIGH WILL
START TO MOVE OFF TO THE NORTH INTO SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
RECOVERING AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASING.
AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
WIDESPREAD VFR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL
BE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR/IFR AT COASTAL TERMINALS THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO. ONCE MIXING DEVELOPS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MAINLY
GROUND FOG WILL MIX OUT LEAVING CLEAR SKIES. HIGH CLOUD
INCREASES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE MID-WEEK
SYSTEM. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO EAST
SOUTHEAST TODAY, BUT SPEEDS WILL BE UNDER 8KT.
EXTENDED FORECAST...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND FOG
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...MINIMAL NORTHEAST SURGE THIS MORNING WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KT. THE SURGE WEAKENS MID-MORNING WITH
WINDS SLOWLY VEERING FROM NORTHEAST TO EAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHEAST FLOW EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT AS WEAK COASTAL
TROUGH FORMS. SEAS AROUND 2 FT TODAY WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT
UPTICK IN SEAS AWAY FROM SHORE OVERNIGHT AS THE SOUTHEAST FLOW
DEVELOPS. NORTHEAST WIND WAVE WILL BE DOMINANT TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH A WEAK SOUTHEAST SWELL ALSO PRESENT.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH WILL
PUSH FURTHER OFFSHORE AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM, THE WARM FRONT
PUSHING IN FROM THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO
WEDNESDAY REACHING 15-20 KTS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WITH BRIEF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
DUE TO ~25 KT GUSTS. A STRONG PG WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY WITH
OFFSHORE WINDS ~15-20 KTS. WAVES WILL BE ~2-4 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...III
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...III
MARINE...III/LEW
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