475
FXUS62 KILM 261122
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
622 AM EST WED NOV 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS WILL LINGER
THROUGH TODAY UNTIL A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT.
ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MUCH
DRIER AIR THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A WARMING TREND
WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST WITH
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES INTO NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MATURE MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES DRAGS A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY. PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT'S
ARRIVAL, A WEAK SECONDARY WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH, ENHANCING ONGOING
WARM ADVECTION. ABUNDANT MOISTURE LINGERS IN THE AREA WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER MORE THAN 200% OF NORMAL UNTIL THE COLD FRONT
ARRIVES, ENTERING THE FORECAST AREA MID AFTERNOON AND MOVING OFF THE
COAST EARLY EVENING. DESPITE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S RAINFALL WILL BE HARD TO COME BY. MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES STRUGGLE TO HIT 6 C/KM AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF A
SHORTWAVE TO HELP GET THINGS GOING. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY,
LIMITING HEATING WHILE THE DISTANCE TO THE STACKED LOW RULES OUT
DYNAMICS. THE BEST HOPE FOR RAIN WILL BE WITH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS PRESENT,
ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE THE CONVERGENCE ARRIVES LATER
IN THE DAY. BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME WHERE SBCAPE EXCEED 500 J/KG
BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z WHICH WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
CONVECTION. ANY STORMS WOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST, NOT EVEN ENOUGH TO
CALL A BROKEN LINE, BUT THINK A FEW AREAS WILL SEE MEASURABLE
RAINFALL. LESS CONFIDENCE IN LIGHTNING GIVEN THE OVERALL LACK OF
STRONG UPWARD MOTION IN THE CHARGE SEPARATION ZONES. CANNOT RULE OUT
A RUMBLE OR 2 OF THUNDER FROM A PARTICULARLY STRONG CELL, BUT THAT
WILL BE THE EXCEPTION.
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND PUSHES
OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. SHARP CLEARING LINE BEHIND THE FRONT AND
INLAND AREAS ARE LIKELY TO SEE SOME SUNSHINE BEFORE THE DAY IS OVER.
FRONT BRINGS STRONG DRYING, BUT NOT A LOT OF COLD AIR. THE COLD AIR
IS DELAYED UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT THIS
EVENING. STRONG COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING 25-30 DEGREES FROM WED EVENING TO THU MORNING,
EVEN WITH WINDS 5-10 MPH.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
COLD AND DRY. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE WITH THE COLDEST AIR
ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S
WITH LOWS NEAR FREEZING. COLDEST CONDITIONS WILL BE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH WINDS GUSTING ~20 MPH DURING THE DAY. THE
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH WINDS DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN, AS IF WINDS GO CALM WE COULD SEE LOWS NEAR 20F
WITH APPARENT TEMPERATURES FOR OUR FAR INLAND AREAS APPROACHING COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA (15F). HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO BUILD IN
LATE WHICH WILL ALSO ADD A LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY DEPENDING ON THE
THICKNESS OF THE CIRRUS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
COLD, DRY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SITS IN THE AREA BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE NE AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM. COME SUNDAY WE'LL BE IN THE HIGH'S RETURN FLOW, TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL. THE SYSTEM'S FRONT SEEMS TO MERGE WITH THE
COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE IN THE WAKE OF THE HIGH LEADING TO EITHER A
STALLED FRONT OR TROUGH OFFSHORE, LOW SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHERE
LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM ALONG THIS FRONT BEFORE MOVING UP IT TO THE
NE.
AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
CURRENTLY A MIX OF IFR AND VFR AT THE TERMINALS, BUT EXPECT VFR
AT ALL SITES BY 12Z. WILL SEE A RETURN OF MVFR AT INLAND SITES
BY MID- MORNING AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED THUS HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANY SHRA/VCSH IN THE TAFS. BEST CHANCES WILL BE INLAND,
CLOSER TO THE COAST THERE IS MORE DRY AIR BETWEEN 2K FT AND 7K
FT. DURATION OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE 2-3 HOURS INLAND AND EVEN
SHORTER FOR COASTAL TERMINALS AS MUCH DRIER AIR SWEEPS IN BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. SKIES CLEAR WEST TO EAST WITH INLAND SITES
CLEARING BY 19Z AND COASTAL SITES CLEARING BY 23Z. SECONDARY
COLD FRONT ARRIVES THIS EVENING WITH WINDS VEERING TO NORTHWEST
LATE EVENING TO AROUND MIDNIGHT.
EXTENDED FORECAST...VFR.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR NC WATERS
TODAY WITH ENHANCED SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. SOUTHWEST WINDS 15- 20 KT TODAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KT
WILL BECOME OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
WATERS. NOT MUCH OF A COLD SURGE BEHIND THE FIRST FRONT, BUT A
SECONDARY SURGE AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL BRING ABOUT AN INCREASE IN
OFFSHORE FLOW. CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS CONDITIONS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS, BUT A SLIGHT BUMP IN SPEEDS MAY REQUIRE EXTENSION OF
THE CURRENT SCA THROUGH THU MORNING. SEAS RUN 3-4 FT TODAY WITH
OCCASIONAL 5 FT WELL AWAY FROM SHORE. THE ARRIVAL OF OFFSHORE
FLOW THIS EVENING RESULTS IN SEAS SUBSIDING, FALLING TO 3 FT BY
THU MORNING. THE WIND WAVE REMAINS DOMINANT, FIRST FROM THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THEN FROM A NORTH TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION LATE
TONIGHT.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AN INCREASED PG BEHIND A COLD FRONT COULD
CAUSE NW WINDS TO GUST ~25 KTS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY BUT IT'S STILL
LOW CONFIDENCE ON A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE NE SUNDAY, WINDS BECOMING
MORE NE AND THEN ONSHORE. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
252.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...III
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...III
MARINE...III/LEW
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