075
FXUS62 KILM 111135
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
635 AM EST THU DEC 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING, BRINGING
IN SOME CHILLY AIR FOR THIS AFTERNOON. A WARMUP TO SEASONABLE
WEATHER FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO A SLIGHTLY MILD SATURDAY.
ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES LATER SUNDAY, USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR
YET THIS SEASON THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE MODERATION BEGINS ON
TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
DRY CFP TO OCCUR DURING THESE PRE-DAWN THU HRS...RESULTING
IN SW WINDS BECOMING NW BY/AFTER DAYBREAK THU. ONLY DEALING
WITH FEW/SCT THIN/OPAQUE CIRRUS THRU THIS MORNING. WILL SEE CAA
NW WINDS OCCASIONALLY GUSTING UP TO 15 TO 20 MPH THIS MORNING
THAT SHOULD DIMINISH IN GUSTINESS BY DUSK, WITH WINDS FURTHER
DROPPING TO CALM CONDITIONS DURING TONIGHT. THIS AIDED BY A
RELAXED SFC PG BECOMING ESTABLISHED AND A SFC BASED INVERSION
DEVELOPING AFTER SUNSET. THE 5H TROF AXIS WILL SWING TO EITHER
OVERHEAD OR JUST OFF THE ILM CWA COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON THRU
TONIGHT. THIS COULD LEAD TO SCT/BKN HIGH ALTOCU OR CIRRUS
AFFECTING THE FA, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
ILM CWA AS A CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM PASSES BY NORTH OF THE FA. MAX
TEMPS TODAY AROUND 50 WITH TONIGHTS LOWS UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.
WILL SEE TEMPS DIVE AROUND SUNSET AS RAD COOLING OCCURS, THEN
LEVELS OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT AND HOLDS AT THE PRESCRIBED LOWS IF
THE SFC BASED INVERSION REMAINS STRONG ENOUGH GIVEN THE
APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
OVERALL QUIET WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST, WITH A BRIEF
WARMING TREND IN PLAY. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT STICKS AROUND FRIDAY
AND MOST OF SATURDAY, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST
SLIPS EASTWARD TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID-TO-
UPPER 50S, STILL REMAINING ON THE COOL SIDE FOR MID-DECEMBER.
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 30S INLAND TO NEAR 40
AT THE COAST. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60, JUST A
DEGREE OR TWO BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST.
MOISTURE STARTS PICKING UP MORE SATURDAY NIGHT, AS AN UPPER LOW
NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION STARTS TO DEEPEN
AND PUSH NORTHEASTWARD INTO QUEBEC. THIS SHOULD ONLY MANIFEST IN
SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER IN THE MID-LEVELS, BUT IT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME DRIZZLE BEFORE SUNRISE SUNDAY
MORNING. LOWS IN THE LOW-TO-MID 40S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN, IT DEEPLY AMPLIFIES
THE TROUGH THAT DIVES INTO THE CAROLINAS, CREATING ONE OF THE
STRONGEST COLD FRONTS WE'VE SEEN ALL YEAR (AT LEAST, BY
TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT STANDARDS). FORECAST GUIDANCE STILL
LIKES THE FASTER PROGRESSION THAT WE'VE SEEN OVER THE LAST
FORECAST CYCLE OR TWO, COMPARED TO WHAT THE SLOWER TRENDS WERE
IN THE PRECEDING DAYS. LOOKS LIKE THIS FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH
THE AREA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY, WHICH CREATES A HEADACHE FOR THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW THE USUAL
DIURNAL PATTERN TO START THE DAY, AND THEN THAT PATTERN WILL
QUICKLY REVERSE ITSELF AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE TIMING ON
THIS IS STILL TRICKY. FOR NOW, OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE FAR INLAND AREAS
TO NEAR 60 IN THE SOUTHERN GRAND STRAND REGION. STILL A PRETTY
UNCERTAIN FORECAST THOUGH, AS THERE COULD BE A 5-8 DEGREE SWING
IN EITHER DIRECTION. HOPING TO GAIN MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE NEXT
FORECAST CYCLE.
AS THE FRONT PUSHES CLOSER TO THE COAST, FREEZING TEMPERATURES
WILL BE CHASING AFTER THE REMAINING MOISTURE. THEY MIGHT
OVERLAP JUST ENOUGH FOR SOME FLURRIES LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR THE CAPE FEAR REGION, A LOW-IMPACT
PHENOMENON. BREEZY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH VERY BITTERLY COLD AIR IN
PLACE. WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S LOOK LIKELY, WITH THE
UPPER TEENS A DECENT POSSIBILITY (30-40%) IN THE PEE DEE AND
INLAND NC COASTAL PLAIN.
HIGHS MONDAY MAY NOT EVEN HIT 40 DEGREES, WHICH WOULD BE 20-22
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID-DECEMBER.
AIR MASS MODIFICATION BEGINS MONDAY NIGHT, CONTINUING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP A
SOUTHERN DRAWL AND PUSH INTO THE ATLANTIC. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
40S TUESDAY BECOME THE MID-TO-UPPER 50S BY WEDNESDAY. LOWS STILL
REMAIN IN THE 20S FOR MOST ON A SLOWER INCREASE.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR TO DOMINATE THE 12Z, 24 HR, TAF ISSUANCE PERIOD. 5H TROF
AXIS TO PUSH OVERHEAD THEN OFF THE NC/SC COAST THIS AFTN. WILL
OBSERVE THIN/OPAQUE CIRRUS UNTIL ITS PASSAGE. CAA COMBINED WITH
A TIGHTENED SFC PG WILL RESULT IN NW WINDS 5-10 KT BECOMING
GUSTY AFTER 14Z, UP TO 20 KT AT TIMES. CAA BECOMES NEUTRAL AND
THE SFC PG RELAXES BY SUNSET ALLOWING NW-W WINDS TO DIMINISH TO
5 KT OR LESS, BECOMING CALM AT TIMES AFTER 00Z THRU 12Z FRI.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. DRY WFP FRI FOLLOWED BY A STRONG (ARCTIC) AFP SUN.
COULD SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS SUN MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO REMAIN IN EFFECT
THRU MID-MORNING AS CAA AND A TIGHTENED SFC PG COMBINE TO
PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS. COMBINED WINDS AND SEAS FOR THE SCA
DURING THESE PRE-DAWN HRS. OFFSHORE WIND TRAJECTORY TO FLATTEN
SEAS ESPECIALLY NEARSHORE TODAY THRU TONIGHT. OVERALL WINDS AND
SEAS WILL PEAK THIS MORNING, FOLLOWED BY A DIMINISHING/SUBSIDING
TREND TO WINDS/SEAS THIS AFTERNOON THRU TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BE
DOMINATED BY SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES WITH AN UNDERLYING 1 TO 2
FT EASTERLY SWELL AT 9+ SECOND PERIODS.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BUILDING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALONG A
WARM FRONT CAUSE THE SEAS TO POKE UP TOWARDS 2-4 FT BY FRIDAY
EVENING, BUT WINDS AND SEAS BOTH SUBSIDE BY SATURDAY MORNING AS
THE FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD. THIS IS ONLY TEMPORARY REPRIEVE, AS A
VERY STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WSW WINDS AND SEAS AGAIN BUILD
BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH WINDS QUICKLY VEERING TO THE NNW AFTER
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES TO LOOK
MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT. MAY EVEN SEE SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE MONDAY, BUT
STILL OPERATE UNDER A STIFF NNW WIND.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ250-
252-254-256.
SYNOPSIS...IGB
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...IGB
LONG TERM...IGB
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...DCH/IGB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page