465
FXUS62 KILM 112316
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
616 PM EST THU DEC 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF
THE WEEK. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY, FOLLOWED
BY THE COLDEST AIR YET THIS SEASON. DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS
AND OFFSHORE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY MORNING. THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY ALTHOUGH
RELAXING A BIT IN TIME. SUNNY SKIES AND GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO LITTLE TO NO WINDS TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. SUNNY SKIES RETURN
FRIDAY AND WITH SOME SLIGHT AIR MASS MODIFICATION EXPECT HIGHS
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AN UPPER AIR PATTERN FEATURING A RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST AND
A TROUGH OVER THE EAST WILL AMPLIFY LATE THIS WEEK. ONE WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY
A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH ACROSS MANITOBA AND
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. SENSIBLE WEATHER
HERE AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN MUCH MORE BENIGN LATE THIS WEEK
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS A DEEP
AND RATHER DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AN IMPACTFUL COLD WEATHER EVENT IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK...
A POWERFUL SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. JUST AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH THE ACCOMPANYING ARCTIC COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. MODELS GENERALLY PAINT MID-RANGE (30 TO 60 PERCENT) RAIN
CHANCES ALONG THE FRONT AS SHALLOW GULF MOISTURE ROUTED UP
THROUGH TEXAS AND THEN EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT REACHES THIS
AREA.
THE ACTION STARTS AS SOON AS THE FRONT IS OFFSHORE: INTENSE
COLD ADVECTION WILL STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO DRY
ADIABATIC WITH 30 MPH WIND GUSTS USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON SO FAR. AFTER MORNING HIGHS IN THE 50S SUNDAY,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD SINK THROUGH THE 40S DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND CRATER OUT IN THE 17-21 RANGE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, THE
COLDEST SINCE THE JANUARY 22-23 ARCTIC BLAST EARLIER THIS YEAR.
THIS SHOULD BE THE VERY DEFINITION OF AN "ADVECTIVE FREEZE" AS
1500-2500 FEET OF VERTICAL MIXING MAINTAINS BREEZY WINDS THROUGH
THE NIGHT. MINIMUM WIND CHILL VALUES BY SUNRISE MONDAY SHOULD
REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS, LIKELY NECESSITATING A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
DESPITE SUNSHINE, THE AIRMASS WILL BE SO COLD HIGHS ON MONDAY
MAY ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 30S. THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL SETTLE
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS ANTICIPATED TO GO CALM.
AFTER COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING NWS OFFICES, WE'VE
ADJUSTED FORECAST TEMPS DOWNWARD BY SEVERAL DEGREES WITH MONDAY
NIGHT'S LOWS NOW EXPECTED TO REACH 20 INLAND AND MID 20S ON THE
BEACHES. NORMAL COLD SPOTS (HOLLY SHELTER GAMELAND, GREEN SWAMP)
WILL UNDOUBTEDLY RUN MUCH COLDER DURING THIS "RADIATIONAL
FREEZE" EVENT.
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN SHOULD BECOME MORE ZONAL LATER NEXT WEEK
WITH DRY WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR. CALM WINDS WITH SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT. LIGHT SW
WINDS AFTER SUNRISE.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.
MARINE
THROUGH FRIDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE WATERS OVERNIGHT AND TURN A BIT MORE WESTERLY FRIDAY.
SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS WELL FALLING TO 5-10 KNOTS
BRIEFLY. LATER IN THE DAY A SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ON THE ORDER OF
10-15 KNOTS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS OF 3-5 FEET WILL FALL INTO A RANGE OF
2-4 FEET.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A FAST-MOVING CLIPPER TYPE
LOW ZIPS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO 10 KNOTS SATURDAY AND BACK AROUND THE SOUTHWEST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD REACH THE AREA SUNDAY.
THIS FRONT PROMISES TO BRING A PERIOD OF STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH NEW MODELS SHOWING AN INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS. ALSO OF IMPORTANCE WILL BE THE
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES: EVEN OVER THE WATER AIR TEMPS IN THE
20S WILL MAKE WIND CHILL READINGS PLUNGE TO BETWEEN 10-15
DEGREES F MONDAY MORNING.
A SMALL 9 TO 10 SECOND SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL BE MASKED BY
WESTERLY WIND CHOP SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN AGAIN BY
STRONG NORTHERLY WAVES SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
DURING THE ARCTIC SURGE. COMBINED SEA HEIGHTS SUNDAY NIGHT COULD
REACH 6 FEET NEAR 20 MILES FROM SHORE.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...TRA
AVIATION...LEW
MARINE...TRA/SHK
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