030
FXUS62 KILM 120708
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
208 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
INCREASINGLY MILDER CONDITIONS FINALLY RETURN TODAY AND
SATURDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY,
BRINGING THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WE'VE SEEN SINCE LAST WINTER.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM UP NEXT WEEK AS THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE AREA, HOWEVER
IT DOES TEMPORARILY DE-AMPLIFIES THIS PERIOD. MID- LEVEL S/W
TROF, IE. CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM, TO TRACK FROM THE MIDWEST TO OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST, FROM EARLY THIS MORNING THRU LATE THIS
AFTN. WILL OBSERVE SCT/BKN CLOUDS FROM EARLY THIS MORNING THRU
MIDDAY, IMPROVING THERE- AFTER. GENERALLY LOOKING AT MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS, IE. ALTOCU AND CIRRUS/CIRRUS
STRATUS...GENERALLY AOA 10K FEET. CONDITIONS NOT CONDUCIVE FOR
ANY LOW LEVEL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT EVENTHOUGH A WEAK SFC WARM
FRONT WILL BE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD. TEMPS THIS PERIOD WILL SEE A
SLOW MODERATION BACK TO NEAR NORMAL OR IN THE VICINITY.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
QUIET AND MILD SATURDAY, WITH MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY GET A CHANCE TO REACH A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MID-DECEMBER, WHICH IS THE FIRST TIME WE'VE BEEN ABLE TO
SAY THAT ALL MONTH SO FAR.
UPPER LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES TIGHTENS UP AS IT PUSHES TOWARDS NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT, SIGNIFICANTLY PINCHING THE ASSOCIATED
TROUGH. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES SATURDAY NIGHT, WHICH HELPS
PUSH A WEAK WARM FRONT NORTHWARD, MOVING FROM THE COAST TO INLAND.
THIS INCREASES SHALLOW MOISTURE, CREATING MORE CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT. MILD LOWS ONLY DIP DOWN INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 40S INLAND,
UPPER 40S AT THE COAST. THEN WE TRANSITION THE OTHER WAY QUITE
QUICKLY AND VIOLENTLY...
ALL EYES ON A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC FRONT THAT WILL RACE FROM THE
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SUNDAY. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT, BUT IT STILL REMAINS RATHER SHALLOW, MOST OF IT BEING
LOCKED TO 850 MB AND BELOW. THIS CREATES ONLY MODEST RAIN CHANCES
SUNDAY MORNING AND MIDDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST STILL REMAINS
TRICKY HERE, DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. STILL EXPECTING A
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA, WITH SOME AREAS IN THE PEE DEE REGION
STRUGGLING TO HIT 50, WHILE OTHER PARTS IN THE SOUTHERN GRAND STRAND
REGION MIGHT SEE 60. THE CURRENT SPREAD IN THE FORECAST GUIDANCE
STILL SHOWS A 6-10 DEGREE SWING IN THESE HIGHS, SO THE UNCERTAINTY
CONTINUES. NOW THAT WE'RE ENTERING THE TIMELINES WITHIN THE HREF,
HOPING TO SEE THIS UNCERTAINTY DECREASE WITHIN THE NEXT
FORECAST CYCLE.
FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOMETIME SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BRINGING A VERY SHARP
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ALREADY
START SETTLING IN BY AROUND 7 PM EST THAT EVENING. BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS STILL LOOK BREEZY THROUGHOUT SUNDAY NIGHT, CREATING A TRUE
ADVECTIVE FREEZE, NOTHING SOMETHING WE SEE MUCH OF AROUND HERE. LOW
TEMPERATURES WON'T HAVE ANY TROUBLE AT ALL DIPPING DOWN INTO THE MID-
TO-UPPER TEENS, WHILE DEWPOINTS CRATER TOWARDS THE SKIN-CRACKING
SINGLE DIGITS. WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20-25 MPH, PARTICULARLY EARLIER
IN THE NIGHT. THIS COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY WINDS
MEAN THAT WIND CHILLS VERY EASILY DIVE INTO THE TEENS BY BEDTIME,
AND THEN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY LOOKS
ALL BUT GUARANTEED, WHERE THE APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WIND CHILLS)
WILL HIT 15F OR LOWER.
FOR CONTEXT, WE ISSUE EXTREME COLD WARNINGS WHEN APPARENT
TEMPERATURES HIT 5F OR LOWER. DOESN'T LOOK LIKE WE'LL GET THERE, BUT
IT'S VERY CLOSE (WE COULD BOTTOM OUT NEAR 7F).
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN, AND BONE-CHILLING HIGHS ON MONDAY
MAY NOT REACH 40 DEGREES FOR MOST. THE BREEZE GRADUALLY SUBSIDES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, CALMING BY SUNSET. THE AIR MASS STARTS BOUNCING
BACK JUST A TAD BY MONDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS DIPPING DOWN INTO THE
LOWER 20S. THIS RESEMBLES MUCH OF A RADIATIONAL FREEZE, AS OPPOSED
TO AN ADVECTIVE FREEZE. THIS IS MORE OF THE STATUS QUO FOR THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS IN WINTER. NO COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HERE.
WHAT GOES DOWN, MUST COME BACK UP, AND THAT'S THE TONE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE ARCTIC HIGH GRADUALLY SETTLES
INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND UNDERGOES MORE AIR MASS MODIFICATION, LOOKING
MORE LIKE THE MILD WARMTH THAT WE'RE USED TO (IT MIGHT EVEN LEARN
HOW TO SAY "Y'ALL"). HIGHS TUESDAY CREEP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR
50 UNDER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING AT THE COAST, DIPPING DOWN A FEW TICKS BELOW FREEZING
INLAND.
BY WEDNESDAY, THE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARDS THE
ATLANTIC, SETTING UP MORE ONSHORE FLOW. MOISTURE AND CLOUDS REBOUND,
AND TEMPERATURES MAKE A RESOUNDING COMEBACK. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 60 WEDNESDAY BECOME THE MID-TO-UPPER 60S BY THURSDAY.
IF YOU COMPARE SUNDAY NIGHT'S LOW TEMPERATURES TO THURSDAY'S HIGH
TEMPERATURES, THAT ACCOUNTS FOR ROUGHLY A 50-DEGREE SWING IN ABOUT
84 HOURS OR SO.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR TO DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE PERIOD. MID TO
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS, AOA 10K FT, WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TERMINALS TODAY. ALTOCU TO DOMINATE LBT/FLO AND WITH MAINLY
CIRRUS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS WITH OCCASIONAL FEW/SCT ALTOCU
AT 12K FT OR HIER. CALM WINDS DOMINATE THIS MORNING, FOLLOWED BY
A WARM FRONT THAT WILL DRAPE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS RESULTING IN
NE 4 KT OR LESS BECOMING SE-S 5 KT OR LESS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...LIGHT W TO NW 10 KT OR LESS WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME SW TO W 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON THRU TONIGHT
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE STALLING. SFC
PG TO REMAIN RELAXED AS EVIDENCED BY THE PROGGED WIND SPEEDS.
SEAS GENERALLY AT 2 FT OR LESS AND COMPRISED MAINLY BY SHORT
PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES, WITH NO MEASURABLE LONG PERIOD GROUND
SWELL EXPECTED THIS PERIOD ALTHOUGH A SMALL SE SWELL TRIES TO
BECOME MORE PREVALENT.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SATURDAY, SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS LINGER NEAR
10 KTS AND QUIET SEAS HUM NEAR 1-2 FT. OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT,
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KTS (GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS) AND
SEAS INCREASE TO 2-4 FT AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT THAT PUSHES THROUGH
SUNDAY. FRONT MOVES THROUGH MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY, AND
WINDS VEER TO THE NNW, INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY. AT THE VERY LEAST,
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE A GUARANTEE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING, BUT WITH EACH FORECAST UPDATE, THERE IS INCREASING
CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE GUSTS. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A GALE WATCH
WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 FORECAST CYCLES. SEAS ESCALATE TO 3-4 FT AT THE
COAST, UP TO 6-7 FT 20 NM OFFSHORE. GRADIENT LOOSENS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY MONDAY, AND WINDS AROUND 10 KTS GRADUALLY START TO BACK TOWARDS
THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH SEAS SLOWLY FALLING BACK
DOWN TO 1-2 FT.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...IGB
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...IGB
LONG TERM...IGB
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...DCH/IGB
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