071
FXUS62 KILM 130653
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
153 AM EST SAT DEC 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
MILD CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
SUNDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT LIGHT SHOWERS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARRIVE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND LINGER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM UP NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
SILL REMAINING UNDER THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROFF THIS PERIOD. SFC
HIGH OVERHEAD THIS MORNING, WILL SLIDE OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS
LATER THIS MORNING. THIS WILL LEAVE A RATHER WEAK SFC PG ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NC AND NORTHEAST SC, UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. THE
UPPER TROF TO AMPLIFY LATER TODAY THRU TONIGHT, FORCING THE
NEARLY 1050 MB ARCTIC HIGH S AND SE WARD. BY THE END OF THIS
PERIOD, LATER TONIGHT, THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEPS
OF THE FA ALONG WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT. INCREASING MOISTURE,
MAINLY DURING THE PRE-DAWN SUN HRS, WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS
INCREASING AND THE THREAT FOR PCPN MAINLY FAR NW PORTIONS OF THE
ILM CWA. LOOK FOR INCREASING TEMPS THIS PERIOD THAT SHOULD
ACTUALLY RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
NORMAL IS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MAXES AND LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR,
THE COLDEST OF THIS YOUNG SEASON IN FACT. STRONG COLD FRONT ON THE
DOORSTEP SUN MORNING WHICH SURGES ACROSS THE AREA AND OFFSHORE BY
MIDDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT A NARROW, BUT DEEP, STREAM OF MOISTURE
WILL PUSH PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER 200% OF NORMAL. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND LIMITED DYNAMICAL FORCING AS WEAK LOW MOVES ALONG
THE FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO A SWATH OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA AT DAYBREAK
SUN. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH
THE DAY, EVEN AS SKIES CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE FRONT.
HIGHS WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING, MAKING THE HIGH TEMP FORECAST
TRICKY. MOST AREAS WILL END UP WITHIN SIGHT OF NORMAL, BUT SUN
MORNING IS THE LAST TIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN SHOUTING
DISTANCE OF NORMAL UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, MAYBE. 850MB
TEMPERATURES DROP FROM 6 TO 8C SUN MORNING TO -6 TO -10C JUST 12
HOURS LATER. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY SUN AFTERNOON AS THE COLD AIR
ANNOUNCES ITS ARRIVAL, LEADING TO A VERY RAW DAY. LOWS SUN NIGHT
WILL APPROACH RECORDS WITH MID TEENS ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, THE
BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE THE WIND CHILL. VALUES WILL DROP UNDER 10
DEGREES IN SOME AREAS. COLD ADVECTION ENDS BY MON MORNING, WITH EVEN
A HINT OF SOME WARM ADVECTION LATER IN THE DAY. NOT THAT IT WILL DO
MUCH AGAINST THE DENSE COLD AIR. HIGHS MON END UP RIGHT AROUND 40,
OR JUST BELOW IT. LOWS MON NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 20S WITH MUCH
LESS WIND MAKING IT FEEL ALMOST 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE NIGHT
BEFORE.
AS MOIST AS THE PRE-FRONTAL AIR IS, THE POST FRONT AIR MASS WILL BE
EXTREMELY DRY. PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPS TO 10% OF NORMAL BY SUN
EVENING, UNDER 0.10". SLIGHT UPTICK IN MOISTURE FOR MON WITH PWAT
AROUND 0.20". THE LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR THROUGH MON
NIGHT ONCE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT IN THE POST FRONT REGIME. AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY WILL DROP TO NEAR 20% MON AFTERNOON AND WOULDN'T BE SHOCKED
TO SEE VALUES DIP INTO THE TEENS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ARCTIC HIGH FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WILL BE OVERHEAD TUE
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB CLOSE TO 30 DEGREES BY AFTERNOON,
ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL STILL FALL SEVERAL DEGREES SHORT OF NORMAL. WEAK
WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH THU WITH HIGHS BACK NEAR NORMAL WED
AND ABOVE NORMAL THU. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAKES A QUICK
RETURN, DRY AIR ALOFT HANGS AROUND THROUGH WED NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER THU, BRINGING WITH IT SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE FRONT END THE WEEK IS THE POLAR OPPOSITE OF
THE ONE THAT STARTS THE WEEK. THE INCOMING AIR MASS HAS ITS ORIGINS
IN THE PACIFIC MARITIMES, NOT ARCTIC CANADA. MUCH LESS COLD AIR AND
LITTLE TO NO DRY AIR. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A BIT FRI AND FRI
NIGHT, BUT THE REGION WILL STILL BE AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRUOUT THE 24 HR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
PERIOD. LATEST GFSLAMP GUIDANCE HAS RETRACTED THE MVFR FOG
AND/OR LOW STRATUS CLOUD POSSIBILITIES DURING THE PRE-DAWN SAT
HRS. OTHERWISE, LOOKING AT OCCASIONAL THIN/OPAQUE CIRRUS DURING
THE 24 HR PERIOD. SFC HIGH TO PUSH OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS
TODAY ALLOWING VARIABLE (WILL IDENTIFY A BEST DIRECTION) WINDS
AT 5 KT OR LESS TO BECOME SW AROUND 5 KT THRU THIS EVENING.
ARCTIC FRONT DROPS TO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BY 06Z WITH SOME
OPAQUE CIRRUS AND/OR ALTOCU BY THE END OF THIS 24 HR PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR REMAINS POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT. SURFACE WIND GUSTS OVER 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG ARCTIC
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...
EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE (WILL IDENTIFY A BEST DIRECTION IN
LIEU OF GOING VARIABLE) WINDS DURING THE PRE- DAWN HRS INTO
DAYLIGHT SAT. THE SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS
LATER TODAY, RESULTING IN WINDS BECOMING SW 5 TO 10 KT. AS THE
ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS FROM THE NW, LOOK FOR SW
WINDS TO INCREASE TO POSSIBLY SCA LEVELS LATE TONIGHT. SEAS WILL
FOLLOW SUIT, AT THEIR LOWEST AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD,
BUILDING AS SFC WINDS INCREASE. MAJORITY OF THE SEAS WILL RESULT
FROM SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES. AN UNDERLYING BUT SMALL SE GROUND
SWELL TO REMAIN PRESENT AND ACCOUNTED FOR.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS AROUND MIDDAY SUN
WITH OFFSHORE FLOW RAMPING UP LATE SUN AND SUN NIGHT AS COLD AIR
SURGES INTO THE REGION. BORDERLINE SCA/GALE EVENT, HOLDING OFF
FOR NOW ON ISSUANCE OF ANY HEADLINES GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY/LOW
CONFIDENCE. DO HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE OF ALMOST 24 HOURS OF NASTY
MARINE CONDITIONS, LATE SUN THROUGH MIDDAY MON. HOWEVER, ONCE
SPEEDS DROP UNDER 10 KT MON EVENING WINDS WILL REMAIN 10 KT OR
LESS THROUGH WED. SEAS ARE QUICK TO RAMP UP TO 4-7 FT LATE SUN
INTO MON, BUT THEN RAPIDLY FALL LATER MON, ENDING UP 2-3 FT MON
NIGHT. A NORTHERLY WIND WAVE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WAVE SUN NIGHT
AND MON. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS TUE AND WED WITH A WEAK SOUTHEAST
SWELL BEING DOMINANT.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
SC...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...DCH/III
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