345
FXUS62 KILM 131924
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
224 PM EST SAT DEC 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
MILD CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN
WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN GRADUALLY WARM UP TOWARD MID WEEK WITH
ANOTHER MAINLY DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH AND DRY THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED INTO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
ALBEIT STILL PLEASANT READINGS INLAND. LONG ADVERTISED ARCTIC
FRONT NOW LOCATED OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST (AS SEEN BY NUMEROUS
SATELLITE IMAGES) WILL MOVE ACROSS QUICKLY SUNDAY MID MORNING.
A QUICK AREA OF SHOWERS WITH THE BOUNDARY REMAINS REASONABLE
WITH HIGH/SHORT LIVED POPS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S SUNDAY WILL
BE REALIZED EARLY THEN FALLING RAPIDLY INTO THE 40S BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
*KEY MESSAGES/HIGHLIGHTS*
*HAZARDS: DANGEROUS COLD SUN NIGHT INTO MON AM
*RAIN CHANCES: NONE
*TEMPS: WELL BELOW NORMAL
*CONFIDENCE: MODERATE TO HIGH
DETAILS: ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING NEAR RECORD COLD
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS CAUSING DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS AROUND 5-
10 DEGREES SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING. WE HAVE MAINTAINED THE
EXTREME COLD WATCH FOR NOW GIVEN SOME LINGERING UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING HOW LOW WIND CHILLS WILL GET BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
AT THE VERY LEAST WE WILL REACH COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA (6-15
DEGREES) FOR ALL AREAS. ALSO SOMETHING TO NOTE AS A VERY LOW BUT NON-
ZERO PROBABILITY, BLACK ICE MAY DEVELOP ON ROADS SUN EVE AS TEMPS
QUICKLY FALL BELOW FREEZING (ESPECIALLY INLAND). FORTUNATELY, THE
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND RAPID DRYING/BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR
SEVERAL HOURS SUN AFTERNOON SHOULD PREVENT MUCH ICE FROM DEVELOPING.
NOT MUCH WARMING EXPECTED MON AS HIGHS STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 DEGREES.
ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS ON TAP MON NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES MORE
OVERHEAD LEADING TO BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THUS, WE
LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR LOWS (~20 INLAND
TO ~30 AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST), ALTHOUGH WITH MUCH LESS WIND THE
WIND CHILLS SHOULD MOSTLY STAY ABOVE OUR COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
CRITERIA (15 DEGREES). DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH TUE NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS CONTROL.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
*KEY MESSAGES/HIGHLIGHTS*
*HAZARDS: NONE
*RAIN CHANCES: LOW TO MOD THU THRU FRI W/ BEST CHANCES THU NIGHT
*TEMPS: NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
*CONFIDENCE: MODERATE TO HIGH
DETAILS: THE ARCTIC AIR MASS OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY
AS IT SLIDES OFFSHORE LATE WEEK AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI. MOISTURE/FORCING APPEAR LIMITED WITH THIS
FEATURE SO ONLY CARRYING LOW TO MODERATE RAIN CHANCES WITH NOT MUCH
ACCUMULATION ANTICIPATED. TEMPS WILL FALL BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL LATE
WEEK.
AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS WITH A NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS
LATER TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONG
ADVERTISED ARCTIC FRONT. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE THE STORY MID
MORNING SUNDAY AND BEYOND.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
MARINE
THROUGH SUNDAY...GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR ALL WATERS
BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY VIA STRONG SUSTAINED WINDS AND MORESO
GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT CURRENTLY IN THE MISSOURI
VALLEY. WHILE SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY BE
OBSERVED PRIOR TO THIS ONSET (SUNDAY MORNING) THEY SHOULD BE
BRIEF AS THE MAIN SYSTEM IS NOT WASTING ANY TIME. FAVORABLE
MARINE CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING
BEFORE ALL OF THIS OCKERS HOWEVER.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THIS
PERIOD. HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO EARLY MON DUE TO
STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND A PASSING ARCTIC FRONT WITH GALE FORCE
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 40 KT A GOOD BET THRU SUN NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE PRETTY QUICKLY MON AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES MORE OVERHEAD AND
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT/COLD ADVECTION SLACKEN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN MAINTAIN CONTROL AS IT SLOWLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH NO
ADDITIONAL MARINE CONCERNS EXPECTED THRU MID WEEK.
CLIMATE
RECORD LOW TEMPS FOR DEC 15:
KILM: 17 / 2010
KLBT: 13 / 2010
KCRE: 17 / 1944
KFLO: 13 / 2010
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
SC...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ250-
252-254-256.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...RJB/SHK
CLIMATE...
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